Environmental and Physical Controls on the Formation and Transport of Blooms of the Dinoflagellate <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cochlodinium polykrikoides</Emphasis> Margalef in the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Its Tributaries

Massive blooms of the harmful alga Cochlodinium polykrikoides Margalef occurred in the lower Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries during the summers of 2007 and 2008. The Lafayette and Elizabeth Rivers appeared to act as initiation grounds for these blooms during both years. However, in 2008 there were also localized sites of initiation and growth of populations within the mesohaline portion of the James River. Bloom initiation appeared to be correlated with intense, highly localized rainfall events during neap tides. Subsequent spring tides increased tidal flushing and transport of C. polykrikoides from the Lafayette and Elizabeth Rivers into the lower James River where it was transported upriver by local estuarine circulation. Blooms dissipated in response to increased wind-driven mixing associated with frontal systems moving through the region. A combination of physical factors including, seasonal rainfall patterns, increased stratification, nutrient loading, spring-neap tidal modulation, and complex estuarine mixing and circulation allowed C. polykrikoides to spread and form massive blooms over large portions of the tidal James River and the lower Chesapeake Bay.     

Multipathing and spectral modulation of the downgoing wavefield in a complex crust: an example from the KTB (Germany) borehole

VSP data collected in the KTB (Germany) borehole to a depth of 8.5 km in 1999 show a surprising spectral modulation of the downgoing wavefield. After filtering the data with the singular value decomposition technique it was found that below about 6.2 km there are two depth intervals where the modulation can be explained in terms of a basic wavelet plus two weighted and delayed copies of that wavelet, with the delay for each wavelet remaining almost constant in each interval. The boundary between the two intervals is at about 7.25 km depth and above and below this depth the delay for the second wavelet is almost the same, while the delay for the third wavelet is significantly different. Neither the modulation nor its depth variation are source related and cannot be explained in terms of multiple reflections in a subhorizontal low-velocity layer. On the other hand, finite difference synthetic data show that subvertical layering (which is prevalent in the borehole area) provides a mechanism that can explain the observations. This mechanism has analogies with the generation of the standard refracted (i.e. head) waves. When a plane wave front propagates perpendicular to the boundaries of a vertical low-velocity layer surrounded by two vertical high-velocity layers, refracted wave fronts are generated in the low-velocity layer, which in turn generate secondary wave fronts in the high-velocity layers. These wave fronts trail the primary wave fronts by a constant delay whose magnitude has a simple dependence on the thickness of the low-velocity layer and the velocities involved. This process creates multipath arrivals that in geological settings with steeply inclined and faulted layers may appear and disappear rather abruptly, which may contribute to a scattered appearance of the wavefield.     

Multi-hydro hydrological modelling of a complex peri-urban catchment with storage basins comparing C-band and X-band radar rainfall data

ABSTRACT

The spread of impervious surfaces in urban areas combined with the rise in the intensity of rainfall events as a result of climate change has led to dangerous increases in storm water flows. This paper discusses a new implementation of the fully distributed hydrological model Multi-Hydro (developed at École des Ponts ParisTech), when operating storage basins, and its ability to deal with high-resolution radar rainfall data. The peri-urban area of Massy (south of Paris, France) was selected as a case study for having six of these drainage facilities, used extensively in flood control. Two radar rainfall datasets with different spatiotemporal resolutions were used: Météo-France’s PANTHER rainfall product (C-band) and ENPC’s X-band DPSRI. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability was analysed statistically using Universal Multifractals (UM). Finally, to validate the application, the water level simulations were compared with local measurements in the Cora storage basin located next to the catchment’s single outlet.     

Socio-spatial segregation and urban form: Belém at the end of the 1990s

In the second half of the 1990s, socio-spatial segregation increased in Brazilian cities, accentuating inequity among social groups. Using a combination of space syntax techniques and statistical analysis, this paper explores locational differences in central and peripheral portions of Belém. The analysis shows how socio-spatial segregation was made more pronounced by relationships between urban form, infrastructure provision and locational values. Social groups' opportunities in the city are suggested to be limited by features of its urban form, associated with infrastructure provision, especially for groups unable to take advantage of intra-urban accessibility. The paper also discusses the findings of the study in relation to the Brazilian urban context at the end of the 1990s.     

Do long lived seabirds reduce the negative effects of acute pollution on adult survival by skipping breeding? A study with European storm petrels (Hydrobates pelagicus) during the "Prestige" oil-spill

We estimated the survival probability of breeding European storm petrels before, during and after a severe oil-spill. We hypothesized that petrels might have deserted the breeding colony to maximize their own survival probability and we expected no major change on adult survival probabilities as a consequence of the spill. We used an information-theoretical approach and multi-model inference to assess the strength of the evidence in favour of different hypotheses.Evidence contained in the data clearly supported the non-effect of the spill on adult survival hypothesis while punctual impact of the spill on survival and expanded (3 years) impact alternatives received less support. The effect size of the spill on averaged survival estimates was negligible in every case. We suggest that petrels minimized the impact of acute pollution by not investing in reproduction. We suggest that short-medium term management actions after oil-spills and similar catastrophes should focus on ecosystem restoration.     

What are MPAs for: On goal formation and displacement

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are established for various purposes. Some are aimed at protection, some are intended as resource management tools, while others imply both of these objectives, as well as others. Regardless of the stated goals, the same MPA can mean different things to different people, and these meanings may be inconsistent. In practice, MPA goals are not always stated clearly, and even if they are, they do not necessary align well with what the different actors have in mind. Moreover, the stated goals are not always those that govern the actual operation of MPAs. The priorities of goals may also change over time for stakeholders and for MPAs. In this paper we argue that the goals of MPAs should not be assumed a priori but should be researched empirically. Thus, before we can answer why MPAs succeed or fail in reaching their goals, we must ask what these goals are in the first place and how they came into existence. How are they, for instance, established, negotiated and agreed upon among stakeholders? How do they reflect particular interests, perspectives and power differentials of those involved? Here, we provide a framework for how to analyze the formation, complexity, and displacement of goals in MPAs, presenting three case studies as illustration.     

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, S?o Francisco and the Paraná River basins

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961–1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011–2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4–6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation–Evaporation (P–E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and S?o Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.