Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.     

Chemical and isotopic interpretation of major ion compositions from precipitation: a one-year temporal monitoring study in Wrocław,SW Poland

The chemical compositions (Na⁺, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^?, NO₂ ^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, HCO₃ ^?) of wet precipitation and nitrogen isotope compositions δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) were studied from January to December 2010 in Wroc?aw (SW Poland). Results of a principle component analysis show that 82 % of the data variability can be explained by three main factors: 1) F1 (40 %) observed during vegetative season (electrical conductivity, HCO₃ ^?, NO₃ ^?, NO₂ ^?, NH₄ ⁺ and SO₄ ^2?), mainly controlling rainwater mineralization; 2) F2 (26 %) observed during vegetative and heating seasons (K⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺), probably representing a combination of two processes: anthropogenic dusts and fertilizers application in agricultural fields, and 3) F3 (16 %) reported mainly during heating season (Na⁺ and Cl^?) probably indicating the influence of marine aerosols. Variations of δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) from ?11.5 to 18.5?‰ identify three main pathways for the formation of NH₄ ⁺: 1) equilibrium fractionation between NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺; 2) kinetic exchange between NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺; 3) NH₄ ⁺ exchange between atmospheric salts particles and precipitation. The coupled chemical/statistical analysis and δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) approach shows that while fossil fuels burning is the main source of NH₄ ⁺ in precipitation during the heating season, during the vegetative season NH₄ ⁺ originates from local sewage irrigation fields in Osobowice or agricultural fertilizers.     

Climate change and human impact in a sensitive ecosystem: the Holocene environment of the Northwest Icelandic highland margin

Complex interactions of climate and volcanic activity have shaped the environment of Iceland during the Holocene. Palaeoecological records from Iceland offer a unique look at a Holocene environment that was uninhabited by humans and free of mammal herbivores until about AD 870. We present a new reconstruction of Holocene vegetation and landscape dynamics from a small lake, Barðalækjartjörn, located near the highland margin in Northwest Iceland. A multi‐proxy approach was used to reconstruct vegetation based on pollen and plant macrofossil analysis and landscape stability based on lithological proxies. The record covers the period c. 10 300–200 cal. a BP. For the first two millennia aeolian processes probably played a part in vegetation development. This period is characterized by high input of minerogenic material into the lake and a vegetation assemblage in which plants tolerant of aeolian deposition are prominent. Betula pubescens woodland reached a maximum between c. 7400 and 6500 cal. a BP. Betula nana‐dominated dwarf shrub heath replaced woodland after c. 4000 cal. a BP, following the onset of Neoglaciation. Land use following human settlement caused an environmental shift at the highland margin. Betula pubescens probably disappeared from the vicinity of the lake soon thereafter. Large‐scale soil erosion began at c. 1000 cal. a BP in the wake of human activities, such as introduction of grazing livestock and woodcutting. This study offers an important long‐term perspective of the development of the highland ecosystem under both wholly natural and human‐influenced conditions.     

An open source GIS‐based Planning Support System: Application to the land use plan of La Troncal,Ecuador

Planning Support Systems (PSS) comprise a wide variety of geo‐technological tools related to GIS and spatial modeling aimed at addressing land planning processes. This article describes the OpenRules system, a PSS based on a previous system called RULES. Among OpenRules new features are its architecture, based exclusively on free and open source software, and its applicability to all land use types, including rural and urban uses. In addition, OpenRules incorporates an unlimited number of land evaluation factors and a new objective in land use spatial allocation. OpenRules has been programmed in Java and implemented as a module of the free GIS software gvSIG, with full integration between the GIS and the decision support tools. Decision support tools include multicriteria evaluation, multiobjective linear programming and heuristic techniques, which support three basic stages of land use planning processes, namely land suitability evaluation, land use area optimization and land use spatial allocation. The application of OpenRules to the region of La Troncal, Ecuador, demonstrates its capability to generate alternative and coherent solutions through a scientific and justified procedure at low cost in terms of time and resources.     

Sexual reproduction and early life‐history traits of the Mediterranean soft coral Alcyonium acaule

Understanding processes that contribute to a better comprehension of the population dynamics of long‐lived species is critical for the maintenance and potential recovery of such species. Despite the abundance of soft corals in Mediterranean rocky reefs, little information exists on their life histories and reproductive patterns. In this study, we assessed the main reproductive characteristics and early life‐history traits of the long‐lived soft coral Alcyonium acaule. The sex ratio was 1:1; the smallest fertile colonies were one finger in size (2.1 ± 0.6 cm in height), and both colony and polyp fertility increased with colony size. Likewise, the number of eggs and spermary sacs per polyp increased significantly with colony size, whereas the diameter of the female and male sexual products did not. Over 6 years of observations (2007–2012), spawning occurred primarily in July, after the seawater reached 20 °C, in a single spawning episode per year. Approximately 80% of female colonies released eggs, which were retained on the surface of the mother colony by mucous strings for up to a few days. High fertilization rates were observed during spawning in 2008 and 2009 (94.9% and 87.0%, respectively). The timing of development was ~24 h for the blastulae, ~48–72 h for the planulae and 8–22 days for metamorphosis into primary polyps. Survivorship of planulae was relatively high (~50% at 45 days after release), but only 24% of larvae metamorphosed into primary polyps, and their survivorship was moderate after 2 months (65% in 2008 and 74% in 2009). Asexual reproduction was negligible, indicating that sexual reproduction is the main mechanism supporting the maintenance and recovery of populations.