Debris-flow release processes investigated through the analysis of multi-temporal LiDAR datasets in north-western Iceland

Debris flows are fast-moving gravity flows of poorly sorted rock and soil, mixed and saturated with water. Debris-flow initiation has been studied using empirical and experimental modelling, but the geomorphic changes, indicative of different triggering processes, are difficult to constrain with field observations only. We identify signatures to distinguish two different debris-flow release styles by integrating high-resolution multi-temporal remote sensing datasets and morphometric analysis. We analyse debris flows sourced above the town of Ísafjörður (Iceland). Two debris-flow triggering processes were previously hypothesised for this site: (i) slope failure, characterised by landslides evolving into debris flows; and (ii) the fire-hose effect, in which debris accumulated in pre-existing, steep-sided bedrock passages is transported by a surge of water. It is unknown which process dominates and determines the local risk. To investigate this question, we compare airborne LiDAR elevation models and aerial photographs collected in 2007 with similar data from 2013. We find that two new debris-flow tracks were created by slope failures. These are characterised by steep sliding surfaces and lateral leveed channels. Slope failure also occurred in two large, recently active tracks, creating the preparatory conditions for the fire-hose effect to mobilise existing debris. These tracks show alternating zones of fill and scour along their length, and debris stored below the source-area at rest angles >35°. Our approach allows us to identify and quantify the morphological changes produced by slope failure release process, which generated the preparatory conditions for the fire-hose effect. As debris flows are rarely observed in action and morphological changes induced by them are difficult to detect and monitor, the same approach could be applied to other landscapes to understand debris-flow initiation in the absence of other monitoring information, and can improve the identification of zones at risk in inhabited areas near hillslopes with potential for debris flows. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Compositional changes in natural gas bubble plumes: observations from the Coal Oil Point marine hydrocarbon seep field

Detailed measurements of bubble composition, dissolved gas concentrations, and plume dynamics were conducted during a 9-month period at a very intense, shallow (22-m water depth) marine hydrocarbon seep in the Santa Barbara Channel, California. Methane, carbon dioxide, and heavier hydrocarbons were lost from rising seep bubbles, while nitrogen and oxygen were gained. Within the rising seawater bubble plume, dissolved methane concentrations were more than 4 orders of magnitude greater than atmospheric equilibrium concentrations. Strong upwelling flows were observed and bubble-rise times were ~40 s, demonstrating the rapid exchange of gases within the bubble plume.     

Testing and Improving a Set of Morphological Predictors of Flaring Activity

Efficient prediction of solar flares relies on parameters that quantify the eruptive capability of solar active regions. Several such quantitative predictors have been proposed in the literature, inferred mostly from photospheric magnetograms and/or white-light observations. Two of them are the Ising energy and the sum of the total horizontal magnetic field gradient. The former has been developed from line-of-sight magnetograms, while the latter uses sunspot detections and characteristics, based on continuum images. Aiming to include these parameters in an automated prediction scheme, we test their applicability on regular photospheric magnetic field observations provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We test their efficiency as predictors of flaring activity on a representative sample of active regions and investigate possible modifications of these quantities. The Ising energy appears to be an efficient predictor, and the efficiency is even improved if it is modified to describe interacting magnetic partitions or sunspot umbrae. The sum of the horizontal magnetic field gradient appears to be slightly more promising than the three variations of the Ising energy we implement in this article. The new predictors are also compared with two very promising predictors: the effective connected magnetic field strength and the total unsigned non-neutralized current. Our analysis shows that the efficiency of morphological predictors depends on projection effects in a nontrivial way. All four new predictors are found useful for inclusion in an automated flare forecasting facility, such as the Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST), but their utility, among others, will ultimately be determined by the validation effort underway in the framework of the FLARECAST project.     

GIS applications for military operations in coastal zones

In order to successfully support current and future US military operations in coastal zones, geospatial information must be rapidly integrated and analyzed to meet ongoing force structure evolution and new mission directives. Coastal zones in a military-operational environment are complex regions that include sea, land and air features that demand high-volume databases of extreme detail within relatively narrow geographic corridors. Static products in the form of analog maps at varying scales traditionally have been used by military commanders and their operational planners. The rapidly changing battlefield of 21st Century warfare, however, demands dynamic mapping solutions. Commercial geographic information system (GIS) software for military-specific applications is now being developed and employed with digital databases to provide customized digital maps of variable scale, content and symbolization tailored to unique demands of military units. Research conducted by the Center for Remote Sensing and Mapping Science at the University of Georgia demonstrated the utility of GIS-based analysis and digital map creation when developing large-scale (1:10,000) products from littoral warfare databases. The methodology employed–selection of data sources (including high resolution commercial images and Lidar), establishment of analysis/modeling parameters, conduct of vehicle mobility analysis, development of models and generation of products (such as a continuous sea–land DEM and geo-visualization of changing shorelines with tidal levels)–is discussed. Based on observations and identified needs from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, formerly the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Department of Defense, prototype GIS models for military operations in sea, land and air environments were created from multiple data sets of a study area at US Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. Results of these models, along with methodologies for developing large-scale littoral warfare databases, aid the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency in meeting littoral warfare analysis, modeling and map generation requirements for US military organizations.     

Drainage reorganization and Laramide tectonics in north-central New Mexico and downstream effects in the Gulf of Mexico

The El Rito and Galisteo depocenters in north-central New Mexico archive tectonically-driven Paleogene drainage reorganization, the effects of which influenced sedimentation along the northwestern margin of the Gulf of Mexico. Although separated by ~100 km and lacking depositional chronology for the El Rito Formation, the two aforementioned New Mexican depocenters are commonly considered remnants of a single basin with coeval deposition and shared accommodation mechanism. Detrital zircon U-Pb maximum depositional ages indicate that the El Rito and Galisteo formations are not coeval. Moreover, stratigraphic thickness trends and mapping relationships indicate different accommodation mechanisms for the Galisteo and El Rito depocenters; tectonically-induced subsidence versus infilling of incised topography, respectively. The regional unconformity that bounds the base of both the El Rito and Galisteo formations is a correlative surface induced by local tectonic activity and associated drainage reorganization in the early Eocene, and was diachronously buried by northward onlap of fluvial sediments. Detrital zircon distributions in both depocenters indicate increased recycling of Mesozoic strata above the unconformity, but diverge upsection as topographic prominence of local basement-involved uplifts waned. Sediment capture in these depocenters is coeval with deposition in other externally-drained Laramide basins. Further, it corresponds to a period of low Laramide province-derived sediment input and replacement by Appalachian-sourced sediment along the northwestern margin of the Gulf of Mexico during a basin-wide transgression. This illustrates the potential effect that pockets of sediment storage within the catchment of a transcontinental drainage system can have over the sedimentary record in the receiving marine basin.     

Post‐Last Glacial Maximum glacier fluctuations in the southern Écrins massif (westernmost Alps): insights from 10Be cosmic ray exposure dating

Only a few chronological constraints on Lateglacial and Early Holocene glacier variability in the westernmost Alps have hitherto been obtained. In this paper, moraines of two palaeoglaciers in the southern Écrins massif were mapped. The chronology of the stabilization of selected moraines was established through the use of ¹⁰Be cosmic ray exposure (CRE) dating. The equilibrium line altitude (ELA) during moraine deposition was reconstructed assuming an accumulation area ratio (AAR) of 0.67. Ten pre‐Little Ice Age (LIA) ice‐marginal positions of the Rougnoux palaeoglacier were identified and seven of these have been dated. The ¹⁰Be CRE age of a boulder on the lowermost sampled moraine indicates that the landform may have been first formed during a period of stable glaciers at around 16.2±1.7 ka (kiloyears before AD 2017) or that the sampled boulder experienced pre‐exposure to secondary cosmic radiation. The moraine was re‐occupied or, alternatively, shaped somewhat before 12.2±0.6 ka when the ELA was lowered by 230 m relative to the LIA ELA. At least six periods of stable ice margins occurred thereafter when the ELA was 220–160 m lower than during the LIA. The innermost dated moraine stabilized at or before 10.9±0.7 ka. Three ¹⁰Be CRE ages from a moraine of the Prelles palaeoglacier indicate a period of stationary ice margins at or before 10.9±0.6 ka when the ELA was lowered by 160 m with respect to the end of the LIA. The presented ¹⁰Be CRE ages are in good agreement with those of moraines that have been attributed to the Egesen stadial. Assuming unchanged precipitation, summer temperature in the southern Écrins massif at ~12 ka must have been at least 2 °C lower relative to the LIA.     

The effects of rerouting aircraft around the arctic circle on arctic and global climate

Climate data suggest greater warming over the Arctic than lower latitudes, and the most abundant direct source of black carbon and other climate-relevant pollutants over the Arctic is cross-polar flights by international aviation. A relevant question is whether rerouting cross-polar flights to circumnavigate the Arctic Circle reduces or enhances such warming. To study this issue, a model accounting for subgrid exhaust plumes from each individual commercial flight worldwide was used with 2006 global aircraft emission inventories that treated cross-polar flights and flights rerouted around the Arctic Circle (66.56083 °N), respectively. Rerouting increased fuel use by 0.056?% in the global average, mostly right outside the Arctic Circle, but most of the associated black carbon and other emissions were removed faster because they were now over latitudes of greater precipitation and lesser stability. Rerouting also reduced fuel use and emissions within the Arctic Circle by 83?% and delayed pollutant transport to the Arctic. The Arctic reduction in pollutants, particularly of black carbon, decreased Arctic and global temperature and increased Arctic sea ice over 22?years. Although the slight increase in total CO₂ emissions due to rerouting may dampen the benefit of rerouting over more decades, rerouting or even partial rerouting (allowing cross-polar flights during polar night only) may delay the elimination of Arctic sea ice, which will otherwise likely occur within the next 2–3 decades due to global warming in general. Rerouting may increase worldwide fuel plus operational costs by only ~$99 million/yr, 47–55 times less than an estimated 2025 U.S.-alone cost savings due to the global warming reduction from rerouting.     

Stellar and galactic environment survey (SAGE)

This paper describes a proposed high resolution soft X-ray and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spectroscopy mission to carry out a survey of Stellar and Galactic Environments (SAGE). The payload is based on novel diffraction grating technology which has already been proven in a sub-orbital space mission and which is ready to fly on a satellite platform with minimal development. Much of the technical detail of the instrumentation has been reported elsewhere and we concentrate our discussion here on the scientific goals of a SAGE base-line mission, demonstrating the scientific importance of high resolution spectroscopy in the Extreme Ultraviolet for the study of stars and the local interstellar medium.     

Stellar And Galactic Environment survey (SAGE)

This paper describes a proposed high resolution soft X-ray and Extreme Ultraviolet spectroscopy mission to carry out a survey of Stellar and Galactic Environments (SAGE). The payload is based on novel diffraction grating technology which has already been proven in a sub-orbital space mission and which is ready to fly on a satellite platform with minimal development. We discuss the goals of a SAGE base-line mission and demonstrate the scientific importance of high resolution spectroscopy in the Extreme Ultraviolet for the study of stars and the local interstellar medium.     

Toward petascale earthquake simulations

Earthquakes are among the most complex terrestrial phenomena, and modeling of earthquake dynamics is one of the most challenging computational problems in science. Computational capabilities have advanced to a state where we can perform wavefield simulations for realistic three-dimensional earth models, and gain more insights into the earthquakes that threaten California and many areas of the world. The Southern California Earthquake Center initiated a major earthquake research program called TeraShake to perform physics-based numerical simulations of earthquake processes for large geographical regions, at high resolution, and for high frequencies. For a large scale simulation such as TeraShake, optimization problems tend to emerge that are not significant in smaller scale simulations. This involves both large parallel computation and also massive data management and visualization coordination. In this paper, we describe how we performed single-processor optimization of the TeraShake AWM application, optimization of the I/O handling, and optimization of initialization. We also look at the challenges presented by run-time data archive management and visualization. The improvements made to the TeraShake AWM code enabled execution on the 40k IBM Blue Gene processors and have created a community code that can be used by seismologists to perform petascale earthquake simulations.