On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

Natural Hazards - This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of...     

The Neogene and Quaternary of England: landscape evolution,tectonics, climate change and their expression in the geological record

During the Neogene and Quaternary, tectonic and climatic processes have had a profound impact upon landscape evolution in England and, perhaps as far back as 0.9 Ma, patterns of early human occupation. Until the Late Miocene, large-scale plate tectonic processes were the principal drivers of landscape evolution causing localised basin inversion and widespread exhumation. This drove, in places, the erosion of several kilometres of Mesozoic cover rocks and the development of a regional unconformity across England and the North Sea Basin. By the Pliocene, the relative influence of tectonics on landscape evolution waned as the background tectonic stress regime evolved and climatic influences became more prominent. Global-scale climate-forcing increased step-wise during the Plio-Pleistocene amplifying erosional and depositional processes that operated within the landscape. These processes caused differential unloading (uplift) and loading (subsidence) of the crust (‘denudational isostasy’) in areas undergoing net erosion (upland areas and slopes) and deposition (basins). Denudational isostasy amplified during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (c.0.9 Ma) as landscapes become progressively synchronised to large-scale 100 ka ‘eccentricity’ climate forcing. Over the past 0.5 Ma, this has led to the establishment of a robust climate record of individual glacial/interglacial cycles enabling comparison to other regional and global records. During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition and early Holocene (c.16–7 ka), evidence for more abrupt (millennial/centennial) scale climatic events has been discovered. This indicates that superimposed upon the longer-term pattern of landscape evolution is a more dynamic response of the landscape to local and regional drivers.     

Regional modelling of permafrost thicknesses over the past 130 ka: implications for permafrost development in Great Britain

The greatest thicknesses of permafrost in Great Britain most likely occurred during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, as this is when some of the coldest conditions occurred during the last 1 000 000 years. The regional development of permafrost across Great Britain during the last glacial–interglacial cycle was modelled from a ground surface temperature history based on mean annual temperatures and the presence of glacier ice. To quantify the growth and decay of permafrost, modelling was undertaken at six locations across Great Britain that represent upland glaciated, lowland glaciated, upland unglaciated and lowland unglaciated conditions. Maximum predicted permafrost depths derived in this academic study range between several tens of metres to over 100 m depending upon various factors including elevation, glacier ice cover, geothermal heat flux and air temperature. In general, the greatest maximum permafrost thicknesses occur at upland glaciated locations, with minimum thickness at lowland sites. Current direct geological evidence for permafrost is from surface or shallow processes, mainly associated with the active layer. Further research is recommended to identify the imprint of freeze/thaw conditions in permanently frozen porous rocks from beneath the active layer.     

Holocene monsoon climate documented by oxygen and carbon isotopes from lake sediments and peat bogs in China: a review and synthesis

There has been much recent debate about Holocene climate variation in the monsoon region of China, especially the temporal pattern of variations in precipitation, the time-transgressive nature of the Holocene precipitation maximum, and the extent to which variations in regions influenced by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) have been synchronous. We summarize and compare carbonate oxygen-isotope records (δ¹⁸O_carb) from ten lakes within the present-day ISM region. We discuss their paleoclimate significance considering the present-day moisture source, isotopic composition of precipitation and the hydrological setting. The δ¹⁸O_carb records are controlled mainly by the isotopic composition of lake water, which in turn is a function of regional Precipitation/Evaporation (P/E) balance and the proportion of precipitation that is monsoon-derived. We normalized the δ¹⁸O_carb data and used these records to generate an integrated moisture index. This index, along with oxygen-isotope records from speleothems and carbon-isotope records (δ¹³C_org) from peats within the monsoon region, suggests that Holocene climate was broadly synchronous across the monsoon region and, within the limits of accuracy of the existing age models, provides no strong evidence for previously-proposed anti-phasing of the ISM and the EASM. Stable-isotope records from lake sediments and peat bogs have excellent potential for providing high-quality paleoclimate data for monsoon Asia, and complement high-resolution speleothem sequences, which are only found in certain localities.     

Temperature effects on non-bridging oxygen and aluminum coordination number in calcium aluminosilicate glasses and melts

Configurational changes with temperature are important for the thermodynamic and transport properties of most aluminosilicate melts, but in general are not well understood. Here, we present high-resolution ²⁷Al and ¹⁷O NMR data on several calcium aluminosilicate glasses prepared with varying quench rates and thus with fictive temperatures that span ranges up to about 200 K. In all compositions the content of five-coordinated aluminum increases with fictive temperature, in agreement with recent high temperature NMR data on melts. In a glass of CaAl₂Si₂O₈ (“anorthite”) composition, the content of non-bridging oxygens also increases with temperature; however this effect was not observed in a sample with a much higher CaO/Al₂O₃ ratio. We present a consistent notation for reactions among structural species in these systems that clarify why in some cases, high-coordinated network cations may appear on the same side of the reaction, while in others they occur on the opposite sides: the key difference is in accounting for all coordination changes for oxygens. Mixing of non-bridging oxygens and of high-coordinated aluminum make significant contributions to the overall configurational entropy and heat capacity of the melts, as does the mixing of various bridging oxygens and of tetrahedral network cations. Other, less well known, types of increase in disorder with temperature may be important as well.     

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.