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11.
Stochastic Structural Modeling 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Lars Holden Petter Mostad Bjørn Fredrik Nielsen Jon Gjerde Chris Townsend Signe Ottesen 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(8):899-914
A consistent stochastic model for faults and horizons is described. The faults are represented as a parametric invertible deformation operator. The faults may truncate each other. The horizons are modeled as correlated Gaussian fields and are represented in a grid. Petrophysical variables may be modeled in a reservoir before faulting in order to describe the juxtaposition effect of the faulting. It is possible to condition the realization on petrophysics, horizons, and fault plane observations in wells in addition to seismic data. The transmissibility in the fault plane may also be included in the model. Four different methods to integrate the fault and horizon models in a common model is described. The method is illustrated on an example from a real petroleum field with 18 interpreted faults that are handled stochastically. 相似文献
12.
Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime. 相似文献
13.
14.
Stephen E Laubach Jon E Olson Julia F.W Gale 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2004,222(1):191-195
Fluid flow in fractured rock is an increasingly central issue in recovering water and hydrocarbon supplies and geothermal energy, in predicting flow of pollutants underground, in engineering structures, and in understanding large-scale crustal behaviour. Conventional wisdom assumes that fluids prefer to flow along fractures oriented parallel or nearly parallel to modern-day maximum horizontal compressive stress, or SHmax. The reasoning is that these fractures have the lowest normal stresses across them and therefore provide the least resistance to flow. For example, this view governs how geophysicists design and interpret seismic experiments to probe fracture fluid pathways in the deep subsurface. Contrary to these widely held views, here we use core, stress measurement, and fluid flow data to show that SHmax does not necessarily coincide with the direction of open natural fractures in the subsurface (>3 km depth). Consequently, in situ stress direction cannot be considered to predict or control the direction of maximum permeability in rock. Where effective stress is compressive and fractures are expected to be closed, chemical alteration dictates location of open conduits, either preserving or destroying fracture flow pathways no matter their orientation. 相似文献
15.
This article provides an analysis of a wetland site in southern Illinois from presettlement to the present. The study area is part of the Cache River‐Cypress Creek Wetland, which has international importance, as recognized by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. Land‐cover data for 1807, 1938, and 1993 were created and analyzed with a geographic information system (GIS). Land‐use change by topographic setting (uplands, transitional, and bottomlands) and soil productivity was quantified and studied. Interviews with local experts informed this analysis. Results illustrate the complexity of environmental change and its driving forces. First, notable forest and swamp acreage was converted to cropland between 1807 and 1938 and, to a lesser degree, from 1938 to 1993. Second, there were land‐use variations by topographic region. Between 1807 and 1938, the largest transformation occurred in the uplands, with substantial acreage converted from forest to cropland. Between 1938 and 1993, however, agriculture decreased in the upland areas as hilly areas reverted to forest cover. At the same time, agriculture expanded in the bottomlands as this land was drained for farming. Third, there are interesting patterns within these categories of land‐use change, as soil productivity is an indicator of what lands were taken out of cropland and converted back to grassland and forest. 相似文献
16.
R. E. Robson 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1987,39(3):207-218
Dispersion from a line source into a stable boundary layer of thickness l is analysed through solution of the diffusion equation assuming an exchange coefficient K(z) (1 – z/l)
2 and wind profiles u(z) z
n, with n = 0,1. Estimates of ground-level concentrations are made by developing analytic formulae where this is possible. A general method of solution using Laplace transformation and Green's function techniques is developed as an alternative to the eigenfunction expansion method discussed previously (Robson, 1983). 相似文献
17.
Kelsey?N.?EllisEmail author Jon?M.?Hathaway Lisa?Reyes?Mason David?A.?Howe Thomas?H.?Epps Vincent?M.?Brown 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,127(3-4):701-710
The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city’s UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city’s UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 °C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38–1.16 °C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04–1.88 °C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being. 相似文献
18.
Throughfall patterns in sugarcane and riparian forest: understanding the effect of sugarcane age and land use conversion 下载免费PDF全文
Robson Willians da Costa Silva Luiz Felippe Salemi Rafael Pires Fernandes Tatiana Morgan Berteli de Andrade Jorge Marcos de Moraes Plínio Barbosa de Camargo Luiz Antonio Martinelli 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2579-2589
Sugarcane is an annual crop with a dynamic canopy that changes over time mainly because of genetic adaptation. There is uncertainty about the temporal trends of throughfall (TF) in this important commercial crop. In the present paper, we used troughs to measure TF in a third and fourth ratoon and subsequently in a fourth and fifth ratoon. Additional measurements were carried out in an adjacent riparian forest. There were no significant differences between cycles of sugarcane, growth phases and riparian forest. The TF results for ratoon crop and riparian forest in 2011/2012 were 76% and 79.5% of gross rainfall, respectively, while in 2012/2013, they were 79% and 78%, respectively. However, TF was remarkably lower in the riparian forest relative to ratoon from the second half of the culm formation and elongation phase (280 days after harvest) until harvest. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Soil freeze–thaw events have important implications for water resources, flood risk, land productivity, and climate change. A property of these phenomena is the relationship between unfrozen water content and sub-freezing temperature, known as the soil freezing characteristic curve (SFC). It is documented that this relationship exhibits hysteretic behaviour when frozen soil thaws, leading to the definition of the soil thawing characteristic curve (STC). Although explanations have been given for SFC/STC hysteresis, the effect that ‘scale’ – particularly ‘measurement scale’ – may have on these curves has received little attention. The most commonly used measurement scale metric is the ‘support’, which is the spatial (or temporal) unit within which the measured variable is integrated or soil volume sampled. We show (a) measurement support can influence the range and shape of the SFC and (b) hysteresis can be attributed, in part, to the support and location of the measurements comprising the SFC/STC. We simulated lab measured temperature, volumetric water content (VWC), and permittivity from soil samples undergoing freeze–thaw transitions using Hydrus-1D and a modified Dobson permittivity model. To assess the effect of measurement support and location on SFC/STC, we masked the simulated temperature and VWC/permittivity extent to match the instrument's support and location. By creating a detailed simulation of the intra- and inter-support variability associated with the penetration of a freezing front, we demonstrate how measurement support and location can influence the temperature range over which water freezing events are captured. We show it is possible to simulate hysteresis in homogenous media with purely geometric considerations, suggesting that SFC/STC hysteresis may be more of an apparent phenomenon than mechanistically real. Lastly, we develop an understanding of how the location and support of soil temperature and VWC/permittivity measurements influence the temperature range over which water freezing events are captured. 相似文献
20.
Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms. 相似文献