Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios

This study examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (～ 30–40° S) under a low and high emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). A gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset based on observations is used to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest. Historical and future simulations from 19 climate models participating in CMIP5 have been adjusted with the observational dataset and then used to make hydrological projections. By the end of the century, there is a large difference between the scenarios, with projected warming of ～ + 1.2 °C (RCP2.6), ～ +?3.5 °C (RCP8.5) and drying of ～ ? 3% (RCP2.6), ～ ? 30% (RCP8.5). Following the strong drying and warming projected in this region under the RCP8.5 scenario, the VIC model simulates decreases in annual runoff of about 40% by the end of the century. Such strong regional effect of climate change may have large implications for the water resources of this region. Even under the low emission scenario, the Andes snowpack is projected to decrease by 35–45% by mid-century. In more snowmelt-dominated areas, the projected hydrological changes under RCP8.5 go together with more loss in the snowpack (75–85%) and a temporal shift in the center timing of runoff to earlier dates (up to 5 weeks by the end of the century). The severity and frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events are also projected to increase in the future. The occurrence of extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases from one to up to five events per 100 years under RCP8.5. Concurrently, probability density function of 3-day peak runoff indicates an increase in the frequency of flood events. The estimated return periods of 3-day peak runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as higher recurrence intervals are considered by mid-century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, and by the end of the century under RCP8.5.     

Changes in lead and zinc lability during weathering-induced acidification of desert mine tailings: Coupling chemical and micro-scale analyses

Desert mine tailings may accumulate toxic metals in the near surface centimeters because of low water through-flux rates. Along with other constraints, metal toxicity precludes natural plant colonization even over decadal time scales. Since unconsolidated particles can be subjected to transport by wind and water erosion, potentially resulting in direct human and ecosystem exposure, there is a need to know how the lability and form of metals change in the tailings weathering environment. A combination of chemical extractions, X-ray diffraction, micro-X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, and micro-Raman spectroscopy were employed to study Pb and Zn contamination in surficial arid mine tailings from the Arizona Klondyke State Superfund Site. Initial site characterization indicated a wide range in pH (2.5–8.0) in the surficial tailings pile. Ligand-promoted (DTPA) extractions, used to assess plant-available metal pools, showed decreasing available Zn and Mn with progressive tailings acidification. Aluminum shows the inverse trend, and Pb and Fe show more complex pH dependence. Since the tailings derive from a common source and parent mineralogy, it is presumed that variations in pH and “bio-available” metal concentrations result from associated variation in particle–scale geochemistry. Four sub-samples, ranging in pH from 2.6 to 5.4, were subjected to further characterization to elucidate micro-scale controls on metal mobility. With acidification, total Pb (ranging from 5 to 13 g kg⁻¹) was increasingly associated with Fe and S in plumbojarosite aggregates. For Zn, both total (0.4–6 g kg⁻¹) and labile fractions decreased with decreasing pH. Zinc was found to be primarily associated with the secondary Mn phases manjiroite and chalcophanite. The results suggest that progressive tailings acidification diminishes the overall lability of the total Pb and Zn pools.