An approach for shake table performance evaluation during repair and retrofit actions

Large‐scale, servo‐hydraulic shake tables are a central fixture of many earthquake engineering and structural dynamics laboratories. Wear and component failure from frequent use may lead to control problems resulting in reduced motion fidelity, necessitating repairs and replacement of major components. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate shake table performance pre‐ and post‐repair, including the definition of important performance metrics. The strategy suggested is presented in the context of the rebuilding of a 4.9 × 3.1 m, 350‐kN‐capacity uniaxial shake table. In this case, the rebuild consisted of characterization of wear to table components, replacement of worn bearing surfaces, and replacement of hydraulic accumulators. To assess the effectiveness of the repair actions, sinusoidal and triangular waves, white noise, and earthquake histories were run on the table before and after the rebuild. The repair actions were successful in reducing the position and velocity dependence of friction, improving the ability of control algorithms to accurately reproduce earthquake motions. The maximum and average response spectral misfits in the period range of 0.1–2 seconds were reduced from approximately 50% to 15%, and from 5% to less than 2.5%, respectively.     

The correlation of solar flare production with magnetic energy in active regions

An investigation of 531 active regions was made to determine the correlation between energy released by flares and the available energy in magnetic fields of the regions. Regions with magnetic flux greater than 10²¹ maxwell during the years 1967–1969, which included sunspot maximum, were selected for the investigation. A linear regression analysis of flare production on magnetic flux showed that the flare energy is correlated with magnetic energy with a coeificient of correlation of 0.78. Magnetic classification and field configuration also significantly affect the production of flares.This work was supported by the Aerospace Sponsored Research Program.     

Resonant Periodic Orbits of Trans-Neptunian Objects

We study two and three-dimensional resonant periodic orbits, usingthe model of the restricted three-body problem with the Sun andNeptune as primaries. The position and the stability character ofthe periodic orbits determine the structure of the phase space andthis will provide useful information on the stability and longterm evolution of trans-Neptunian objects. The circular planarmodel is used as the starting point. Families of periodic orbitsare computed at the exterior resonances 1/2, 2/3 and 3/4 withNeptune and these are used as a guide to select the energy levelsfor the computation of the Poincaré maps, so that all basicresonances are included in the study. Using the circular planarmodel as the basic model, we extend our study to more realisticmodels by considering an elliptic orbit of Neptune and introducingthe inclination of the orbit. Families of symmetric periodicorbits of the planar elliptic restricted three-body problem andthe three-dimensional problem are found. All these orbitsbifurcate from the families of periodic orbits of the planarcircular problem. The stability of all orbits is studied. Althoughthe resonant structure in the circular problem is similar for allresonances, the situation changes if the eccentricity of Neptuneor the inclination of the orbit is taken into account. All theseresults are combined to explain why in some resonances there aremany bodies and other resonances are empty.     

Low‐temperature concentration of tellurium and gold in continental red bed successions

There is very little understanding of tellurium (Te) distribution and behaviour in sedimentary rocks. A suite of 15 samples of reduction spheroids (centimetre‐scale pale spheroids in otherwise red rock), including samples from eight localities in Triassic red beds across the British Isles, were mapped for Te using Laser Ablation–Inductively Coupled Plasma–Mass Spectrometry. Almost all showed enrichment in Te in the cores of the spheroids relative to background red bed concentrations, by up to four orders of magnitude. Some were also enriched over background in gold and/or mercury. In one case, discrete telluride minerals were recorded. The data show that Te is mobile and can be concentrated in low‐temperature sedimentary environments, controlled by redox variations. The consistency in enrichment across widely separate localities implies that the enrichment is a normal aspect of red bed diagenesis and so likely to be controlled by a ubiquitous process, such as microbial activity.     

Cosmic ray ionization of the Jovian atmosphere

An approximate form of the Boltzmann equation has been used to obtain local ionization rates due to the absorption of galactic cosmic rays in the Jovian atmosphere. It is shown that the muon flux component of the cosmic ray-induced cascade may be especially importannt in ionizing the atmosphere at levels where the total number density exceeds 10¹⁹ cm^?3 (well below the ionospheric layers produced by solar euv). A model containing both positive and negative ion reactions has been employed to compute equilibrium electron and ion number densities. Peak electron number densities on the order of 10³ cm^?3 may be expected even at relatively low magnetic latitudes. The dominant positive ions are NH₄⁺ and C_nH_m⁺ cluster ions, with n ? 2; it is suggested that the absorption of galactic cosmic ray energy at such relatively high pressures in the Jovian atmosphere $\text{(M ? 10}{}^{18}\text{to}\text{10}{}^{20}\text{cm}{}^{\mathrm{?3}}\text{)}$ and the subsequent chemical reactions may be instrumental in the local formation of complex hydrocarbons.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers. The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.     

Recent increase of river–floodplain suspended sediment exchange in a reach of the lower Amazon River

We analyzed variation of channel–floodplain suspended sediment exchange along a 140 km reach of the lower Amazon River for two decades (1995–2014). Daily sediment fluxes were determined by combining measured and estimated surface sediment concentrations with river–floodplain water exchanges computed with a two‐dimensional hydraulic model. The average annual inflow to the floodplain was 4088 ± 2017 Gg yr^?1 and the outflow was 2251 ± 471 Gg yr^?1, respectively. Prediction of average sediment accretion rate was twice the estimate from a previous study of this same reach and more than an order of magnitude lower than an estimate from an earlier regional scale study. The amount of water routed through the floodplain, which is sensitive to levee topography and increases exponentially with river discharge, was the main factor controlling the variation in total annual sediment inflow. Besides floodplain routing, the total annual sediment export depended on the increase in sediment concentration in lakes during floodplain drainage. The recent increasing amplitude of the Amazon River annual flood over two decades has caused a substantial shift in water and sediment river–floodplain exchanges. In the second decade (2005–2014), as the frequency of extreme floods increased, annual sediment inflow increased by 81% and net storage increased by 317% in relation to the previous decade (1995–2004). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth of large sulfide structures on the endeavour segment of the Juan de Fuca ridge

Mapping and sampling with DSRV “Alvin” has established that sulfide blocks 0.5 m across, dredged from the axial valley of the Endeavour Segment at 47°57′N, are samples of unusually large sulfide structures. The steep-sided structures, up to 30 m in length, 20 m in height, and 10–15 m across, are localized by venting along normal faults at the base of the western axial valley wall, and are distributed for about 200 m along strike paralleling the 020 trend of the ridge crest. High-temperature fluids (350 to more than 400°C) pass through the massive sulfide structures and enter seawater through small, concentric “nozzle-like” features projecting from the top or the sides of the larger vent structures. Diffuse, low-temperature flow is pervasive in the vicinity of the active sulfide structures, exiting from basalt and sulfide surfaces alike. Evidence of recent volcanic activity is sparse.The two largest samples taken with the dredge would not have been recoverable using the submersible. These samples represent massive, complex portions of the sulfide structures which were not closely associated with rapid high-temperature fluid flow at the time of sampling; they contain textural evidence of sealed hydrothermal fluid exit channels. Mineralogy is dominated by Fe sulfides nnd amorphous silica. Pyrite, marcasite, wurtzite, chalcopyrite, and iss are the most common sulfide phases. Pyrrhotite, galena, and sphalerite are present in trace amounts. Barite, amorphous silica, and chalcedony are the only non-sulfide phases; anhydrite is not observed in any of the dredge samples, although it is common in the chimney-like samples recovered by “Alvin”.Specific mineralogical-textural zones within the dredge samples are anaoogous to individual layers in East Pacific Rise at 21°N and southern Juan de Fuca Ridge samples, with two exceptions: a coarse-grained, highly porous Fe sulfide-rich interior containing sulfidized tubeworm casts, and a 2–5 cm thick zone near the outer margin of the samples dominated by late stage amorphous silica. The porous interior may have formed by dendritic crystal growth from a slowly circulating fluid within a large enclosed chamber. The amorphous silica deposited from a seawater/hydrothermal fluid mixture percolating slowly through the walls of the enclosed chamber; conductive cooling of the fluid as it traversed the walls allowed amorphous silica to precipitate. These silica-rich zones are the densest, most durable portions of the structures and may be responsible for the lasting stability of the large sulfide features.Observations in these samples are consistent with two distinct phases of development. Phase 1 is analogous to chimney growth and construction at 21°N and ends when flow channels become sealed to rapid flow of through-going fluid. The flow is evidently redirected within the structure. Phase 2 includes dissolution of anhydrite and precipitation of amorphous silica during conductive cooling of sluggishly circulating hydrothermal fluid or seawater/hydrothermal fluid mixtures. Evolution of vent structures through phase 2 allows lateral and vertical growth of unusually large structures.     

From models to performance assessment: the conceptualization problem

Today, models are ubiquitous tools for ground water analyses. The intent of this paper is to explore philosophically the role of the conceptual model in analysis. Selection of the appropriate conceptual model is an a priori decision by the analyst. Calibration is an integral part of the modeling process. Unfortunately a wrong or incomplete conceptual model can often be adequately calibrated; good calibration of a model does not ensure a correct conceptual model. Petroleum engineers have another term for calibration; they refer to it as history matching. A caveat to the idea of history matching is that we can make a prediction with some confidence equal to the period of the history match. In other words, if we have matched a 10-year history, we can predict for 10 years with reasonable confidence; beyond 10 years the confidence in the prediction diminishes rapidly. The same rule of thumb applies to ground water model analyses. Nuclear waste disposal poses a difficult problem because the time horizon, 1000 years or longer, is well beyond the possibility of the history match (or period of calibration) in the traditional analysis. Nonetheless, numerical models appear to be the tool of choice for analyzing the safety of waste facilities. Models have a well-recognized inherent uncertainty. Performance assessment, the technique for assessing the safety of nuclear waste facilities, involves an ensemble of cascading models. Performance assessment with its ensemble of models multiplies the inherent uncertainty of the single model. The closer we can approach the idea of a long history with which to match the models, even models of nuclear waste facilities, the more confidence we will have in the analysis (and the models, including performance assessment). This thesis argues for prolonged periods of observation (perhaps as long as 300 to 1000 years) before a nuclear waste facility is finally closed.