Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.     

Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T_SOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T_SOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T_SOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T_SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T_SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.     

An instrument for commissioning the active and adaptive optics of modern telescopes: the Infrared Test Camera for the Large Binocular Telescope

We describe the design, integration, and operation of the infrared test cameras for the commissioning of the Large Binocular Telescope. The design and construction phase lasted slightly more than one year from February 2007 to April 2008 and was the result of a joint collaboration among INAF Osservatorio Astronomico di Bologna, Università di Bologna Dipartimento di Astronomia (Italy) and the Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie (Heidelberg, Germany). Thereafter, the camera was delivered to the LBT Observatory (USA) for commissioning of the telescope active optics and, more recently, for commissioning of the first light adaptive optics.     

Compositions and taxonomy of 15 unusual carbonaceous chondrites

Abstract– We used instrumental neutron activation analysis and petrography to determine bulk and phase compositions and textural characteristics of 15 carbonaceous chondrites of uncertain classification: Acfer 094 (type 3.0, ungrouped CM‐related); Belgica‐7904 (mildly metamorphosed, anomalous, CM‐like chondrite, possibly a member of a new grouplet that includes Wisconsin Range (WIS) 91600, Dhofar 225, and Yamato‐86720); Dar al Gani (DaG) 055 and its paired specimen DaG 056 (anomalous, reduced CV3‐like); DaG 978 (type 3 ungrouped); Dominion Range 03238 (anomalous, magnetite‐rich CO3.1); Elephant Moraine 90043 (anomalous, magnetite‐bearing CO3); Graves Nunataks 98025 (type 2 or type 3 ungrouped); Grosvenor Mountains (GRO) 95566 (anomalous CM2 with a low degree of aqueous alteration); Hammadah al Hamra (HaH) 073 (type 4 ungrouped, possibly related to the Coolidge‐Loongana [C‐L] 001 grouplet); Lewis Cliff (LEW) 85311 (anomalous CM2 with a low degree of aqueous alteration); Northwest Africa 1152 (anomalous CV3); Pecora Escarpment (PCA) 91008 (anomalous, metamorphosed CM); Queen Alexandra Range 99038 (type 2 ungrouped); Sahara 00182 (type 3 ungrouped, possibly related to HaH 073 and/or to C‐L 001); and WIS 91600 (mildly metamorphosed, anomalous, CM‐like chondrite, possibly a member of a new grouplet that includes Belgica‐7904, Dhofar 225, and Y‐86720). Many of these meteorites show fractionated abundance patterns, especially among the volatile elements. Impact volatilization and dehydration as well as elemental transport caused by terrestrial weathering are probably responsible for most of these compositional anomalies. The metamorphosed CM chondrites comprise two distinct clusters on the basis of their Δ¹⁷O values: approximately ?4‰ for PCA 91008, GRO 95566, DaG 978, and LEW 85311, and approximately 0‰ for Belgica‐7904 and WIS 91600. These six meteorites must have been derived from different asteroidal regions.     

Highly reducing conditions during core formation on Mercury: Implications for internal structure and the origin of a magnetic field

The high average density and low surface FeO content of the planet Mercury are shown to be consistent with very low oxygen fugacity during core segregation, in the range 3-6 log units below the iron-wüstite buffer. These low oxygen fugacities, and associated high metal content, are characteristic of high-iron enstatite (EH) and Bencubbinite (CB) chondrites, raising the possibility that such materials may have been important building blocks for this planet. With this idea in mind we have explored the internal structure of a Mercury sized planet of EH or CB bulk composition. Phase equilibria in the silicate mantle have been modeled using the thermodynamic calculator p-MELTS, and these simulations suggest that orthopyroxene will be the dominant mantle phase for both EH and CB compositions, with crystalline SiO₂ being an important minor phase at all pressures. Simulations for both compositions predict a plagioclase-bearing “crust” at low pressure, significant clinopyroxene also being calculated for the CB bulk composition. Concerning the core, comparison with recent high pressure and high temperature experiments relevant to the formation of enstatite meteorites, suggest that the core of Mercury may contain several wt.% silicon, in addition to sulfur. In light of the pressure of the core-mantle boundary on Mercury (∼7 GPa) and the pressure at which the immiscibility gap in the system Fe-S-Si closes (∼15 GPa) we suggest that Mercury’s core may have a complex shell structure comprising: (i) an outer layer of Fe-S liquid, poor in Si; (ii) a middle layer of Fe-Si liquid, poor in S; and (iii) an inner core of solid metal. The distribution of heat-producing elements between mantle and core, and within a layered core have been quantified. Available data for Th and K suggest that these elements will not enter the core in significant amounts. On the other hand, for the case of U both recently published metal/silicate partitioning data, as well as observations of U distribution in enstatite chondrites, suggest that this element behaves as a chalcophile element at low oxygen fugacity. Using these new data we predict that U will be concentrated in the outer layer of the mercurian core. Heat from the decay of U could thus act to maintain this part of Mercury’s core molten, potentially contributing to the origin of Mercury’s magnetic field. This result contrasts with the Earth where the radioactive decay of U represents a negligible contribution to core heating.     

Ground-based observations of time variability in multiple active volcanoes on Io

Since before the beginning of the Galileo spacecraft’s Jupiter orbital tour, we have observed Io from the ground using NASA’s Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). We obtained images of Io in reflected sunlight and in-eclipse at 2.3, 3.5, and 4.8 μm. In addition, we have measured the 3.5 μm brightness of an eclipsed Io as it is occulted by Jupiter. These lightcurves enable us to measure the brightness and one-dimensional location of active volcanoes on the surface. During the Galileo era, two volcanoes were observed to be regularly active: Loki and either Kanehekili and/or Janus. At least 12 other active volcanoes were observed for shorter periods of time, including one distinguishable in images that include reflected sunlight. These data can be used to compare volcano types and test volcano eruption models, such as the lava lake model for Loki.     

Distribution of Impact Locations and Velocities of Earth Meteorites on the Moon

Following the analytical work of Armstrong et al. (Icarus 160:183–196, 2002), we detail an expanded N-body calculation of the direct transfer of terrestrial material to the Moon during a giant impact. By simulating 1.4 million particles over a range of launch velocities and ejecta angles, we have derived a map of the impact velocities, impact angles, and probable impact sites on the moon over the last 4 billion years. The maps indicate that the impacts with the highest vertical impact speeds are concentrated on the leading edge, with lower velocity/higher-angle impacts more numerous on the Moon’s trailing edge. While this enhanced simulation indicates the estimated globally averaged direct transfer fraction reported in Armstrong et al. (Icarus 160:183–196, 2002) is overestimated by a factor of 3–6, local concentrations can reach or exceed the previously published estimate. The most favorable location for large quantities of low velocity terrestrial material is 50 W, 85 S, with 8.4 times more impacts per square kilometer than the lunar surface average. This translates to 300–500 kg km⁻², compared to 200 kg km⁻² from the previous estimate. The maps also indicate a significant amount of material impacting elsewhere in the polar regions, especially near the South Pole-Aiken basin, a likely target for sample return in the near future. The magnitudes of the impact speeds cluster near 3 km/s, but there is a bimodal distribution in impact angles, leading to 43% of impacts with very low (<1 km/s) vertical impact speeds. This, combined with the enhanced surface density of meteorites in specific regions, increases the likelihood of weakly shocked terrestrial material being identified and recovered on the Moon.     

A submillimetre survey of the kinematics of the Perseus molecular cloud – I. Data

We present submillimetre observations of the   J = 3 → 2  rotational transition of ¹²CO, ¹³CO and C¹⁸O across over 600 arcmin² of the Perseus molecular cloud, undertaken with the Heterodyne Array Receiver Programme (HARP), a new array spectrograph on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. The data encompass four regions of the cloud, containing the largest clusters of dust continuum condensations: NGC 1333, IC348, L1448 and L1455. A new procedure to remove striping artefacts from the raw HARP data is introduced. We compare the maps to those of the dust continuum emission mapped with the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA; Hatchell et al.) and the positions of starless and protostellar cores (Hatchell et al.). No straightforward correlation is found between the masses of each region derived from the HARP CO and SCUBA data, underlining the care that must be exercised when comparing masses of the same object derived from different tracers. From the ¹³CO/C¹⁸O line ratio the relative abundance of the two species  ([¹³CO]/[C¹⁸O]∼ 7)  and their opacities (typically τ is 0.02–0.22 and 0.15–1.52 for the C¹⁸O and ¹³CO gas, respectively) are calculated. C¹⁸O is optically thin nearly everywhere, increasing in opacity towards star-forming cores but not beyond  τ₁₈∼ 0.9  . Assuming the ¹²CO gas is optically thick, we compute its excitation temperature, T _ex (around 8–30 K), which has little correlation with estimates of the dust temperature.     

Oxidation of CO on surface hematite in high CO2 atmospheres

We propose a mechanism for the oxidation of gaseous CO into CO₂ occurring on the surface mineral hematite (Fe₂O₃(s)) in hot, CO₂-rich planetary atmospheres, such as Venus. This mechanism is likely to constitute an important source of tropospheric CO₂ on Venus and could at least partly address the CO₂ stability problem in Venus’ stratosphere, since our results suggest that atmospheric CO₂ is produced from CO oxidation via surface hematite at a rate of 0.4 petagrammes (Pg) CO₂ per (Earth) year on Venus which is about 45% of the mass loss of CO₂ via photolysis in the Venusian stratosphere. We also investigated CO oxidation via the hematite mechanism for a range of planetary scenarios and found that modern Earth and Mars are probably too cold for the mechanism to be important because the rate-limiting step, involving CO(g) reacting onto the hematite surface, proceeds much slower at lower temperatures. The mechanism may feature on extrasolar planets such as Gliese 581c or CoRoT-7b assuming they can maintain solid surface hematite which, e.g. starts to melt above about 1200 K. The mechanism may also be important for hot Hadean-type environments and for the emerging class of hot Super-Earths with planetary surface temperatures between about 600 and 900 K.     

Population variations in the grazing turbinid Lunella smaragda (Mollusca: Gastropoda)

The grazing turbinid gastropod Lunella smaragda was sampled regularly over 3.5 y from precise sites of different microtopography and height on the platform shore at Goat Island Beach near Leigh, Northland, New Zealand. Growth is linear for over 3 y, and the year‐classes distinct. The position of the different size‐classes is related to both the shelter afforded by the microtopography, and to the height on the shore. The populations in the mid‐eulittoral turf flats, low eulittoral bare rock areas, and the sublittoral fringe are distinct, and there is a general movement down the shore with age and size. Wave action apparently dislodges the animals from higher areas when they grow to a critical size and transports them to sites lower on the shore, where wave disturbance is less. Field experiments with marked animals and laboratory studies with a wave tank confirm that the wave‐effected distribution is size related. However measurements showed that the ratio of foot attachment area to the shell area presented to the wave does not vary with animal size. The possible benefits of wave dislodgment and wave‐effected distribution are considered.