An examination of climate sensitivity for idealised climate change experiments in an intermediate general circulation model

Radiative forcing and climate sensitivity have been widely used as concepts to understand climate change. This work performs climate change experiments with an intermediate general circulation model (IGCM) to examine the robustness of the radiative forcing concept for carbon dioxide and solar constant changes. This IGCM has been specifically developed as a computationally fast model, but one that allows an interaction between physical processes and large-scale dynamics; the model allows many long integrations to be performed relatively quickly. It employs a fast and accurate radiative transfer scheme, as well as simple convection and surface schemes, and a slab ocean, to model the effects of climate change mechanisms on the atmospheric temperatures and dynamics with a reasonable degree of complexity. The climatology of the IGCM run at T-21 resolution with 22 levels is compared to European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis data. The response of the model to changes in carbon dioxide and solar output are examined when these changes are applied globally and when constrained geographically (e.g. over land only). The CO₂ experiments have a roughly 17% higher climate sensitivity than the solar experiments. It is also found that a forcing at high latitudes causes a 40% higher climate sensitivity than a forcing only applied at low latitudes. It is found that, despite differences in the model feedbacks, climate sensitivity is roughly constant over a range of distributions of CO₂ and solar forcings. Hence, in the IGCM at least, the radiative forcing concept is capable of predicting global surface temperature changes to within 30%, for the perturbations described here. It is concluded that radiative forcing remains a useful tool for assessing the natural and anthropogenic impact of climate change mechanisms on surface temperature.     

Feature: Implications of climate change for hazardous ground conditions in the UK

Many geohazards affect the United Kingdom, both directly and indirectly. As climate might change in the future, it may affect the geohazards that we, and our descendents, will have to face as a consequence of those changes.     

Shapes and rotational properties of thirty asteroids from photometric data

We have analyzed photometric lightcurves of 30 asteroids, and present here the obtained shapes, rotational periods and pole directions. We also present new photometric observations of five asteroids. The shape models indicate the existence of many features of varying degrees of irregularity. Even large main-belt asteroids display such features, so the resulting poles and periods are more consistent than those obtained by simple ellipsoid-like models. In some cases the new rotational parameters are rather different from those obtained previously, and in a few cases there were no proper previous estimates at all.     

对中欧草地系统演替的17年量化研究(英文)

本文旨在用17年的观测数据检验三个有关草地系统演替的假设:(1)物种多样性在演替早期不断增加;(2)伴随着演替的推进,样方植物群落间的相似度逐渐增加(样方间的差异度随着演替不断降低);(3)在演替早期,植物群落的物种组成有趋同之势。包括植物群落的总体发展、Shannon多度与均度、Bray-Curtis差异度和群落周转率在内的量化统计结果显示:经过早期5年的演替,各样方的物种多样性表现出快速的趋同,多度均值逐渐由8增加至25个物种;同时,所有样方的物种总数由23增加至55个物种,标准方差由4.6降至0.3。此外,样方间的差异度逐渐降低,物种多度与组成呈明显的趋同。停止除草的一个重要效应是,人工设置的由1到16个物种的多样性梯度因物种入侵至多度较低的样地而减弱。     

Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26˚N in the Atlantic

We analyze the ability of an oceanic monitoring array to detect potential changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The observing array is ‘deployed’ into a numerical model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), and simulates the measurements of density and wind stress at 26^°N in the Atlantic. The simulated array mimics the continuous monitoring system deployed in the framework of the UK Rapid Climate Change program. We analyze a set of three realizations of a climate change scenario (IPCC A1B), in which – within the considered time-horizon of 200 years – the MOC weakens, but does not collapse. For the detection analysis, we assume that the natural variability of the MOC is known from an independent source, the control run. Our detection approach accounts for the effects of observation errors, infrequent observations, autocorrelated internal variability, and uncertainty in the initial conditions. Continuous observation with the simulated array for approximately 60 years yields a statistically significant (p < 0.05) detection with 95 percent reliability assuming a random observation error of 1 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s^?1). Observing continuously with an observation error of 3 Sv yields a detection time of about 90 years (with 95 percent reliability). Repeated hydrographic transects every 5 years/ 20 years result in a detection time of about 90 years/120 years, with 95 percent reliability and an assumed observation error of 3 Sv. An observation error of 3 Sv (one standard deviation) is a plausible estimate of the observation error associated with the RAPID UK 26^°N array.     

Ventilation and oxygen consumption in the spotted stargazer Genyagnus monopterygius †

As with other benthic fish which bury themselves in sand, in Genyagnus monopterygius it is the branchiostegal apparatus which makes the major contribution to ventilation of the gills. The prolonged abduction of the branchiostegal membranes draws water in through the mouth, and exhaled water moves away from the fish through mucus‐lined channels in the sand. The steady and continuous flow of water during ventilation may avoid detection of the stargazer by prey or predators. Associated with its sluggish habits and the low gill surface area available for gas exchange, Genyagnus has a low rate of oxygen consumption (15.8 ml kg^‐1 h^‐1 for a 100 g fish at 17°C). At partial pressures of oxygen (PO2) below 6 kPa (45 mm Hg) oxygen consumption is reduced, but the fish does not emerge from the sand until the PO2 falls below 2 kPa. There is evidence that the fish can sustain an oxygen debt. Respiration in the stargazer is discussed in relation to the fish's ability to withstand temporary hypoxia when it is stranded above the water level in the intertidal zone.     

Credited forest carbon sinks: how the cost reduction is allocated among countries and sectors

Forest carbon sinks have been included in the Kyoto Protocol as one of the mechanisms for mitigating climate change. Consequently, credited sinks decrease the need to reduce emissions. We analyse in detail both the economywide and the sectoral effects of inclusion of carbon sinks as agreed upon in Bonn and Marrakesh for the first commitment period of 2008–2012. The focus of our analysis is the special treatment for Canada and Japan that allows them larger sinks. The analysis is performed with the multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP-E.New Zealand benefits most from the inclusion of sinks as it gains large carbon sinks from afforestation. Also in Sweden, Canada and Japan the costs of achieving the emission target are considerably reduced. Of these countries, only Canada has high costs without sinks. Thus credited sinks partly reduce the difference in economic burden of achieving the Kyoto target among countries. Even though larger sinks clearly benefit Canada and Japan, their effect on other countries, either on the economywide or on the sectoral level, remains marginal. Allowing larger sinks is, indeed, of relatively minor importance for the world economy and emission reduction, compared to the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol.