Effects of climate change on oceanic fisheries in the tropical Pacific: implications for economic development and food security

The four species of tuna that underpin oceanic fisheries in the tropical Pacific (skipjack, yellowfin, bigeye and albacore tuna) deliver great economic and social benefits to Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs). Domestic tuna fleets and local fish processing operations contribute 3–20 % to gross domestic product in four PICTs and licence fees from foreign fleets provide an average of 3–40 % of government revenue for seven PICTs. More than 12,000 people are employed in tuna processing facilities and on tuna fishing vessels. Fish is a cornerstone of food security for many PICTs and provides 50–90 % of dietary animal protein in rural areas. Several PICTs have plans to (1) increase the benefits they receive from oceanic fisheries by increasing the amount of tuna processed locally, and (2) allocate more tuna for the food security of their rapidly growing populations. The projected effects of climate change on the distribution of tuna in the tropical Pacific Ocean, due to increases in sea surface temperature, changes in velocity of major currents and decreases in nutrient supply to the photic zone from greater stratification, are likely to affect these plans. PICTs in the east of the region with a high dependence on licence fees for government revenue are expected to receive more revenue as tuna catches increase in their exclusive economic zones. On the other hand, countries in the west may encounter problems securing enough fish for their canneries as tuna are redistributed progressively to the east. Changes in the distribution of tuna will also affect the proportions of national tuna catches required for food security. We present priority adaptations to reduce the threats to oceanic fisheries posed by climate change and to capitalise on opportunities.     

Credited forest carbon sinks: how the cost reduction is allocated among countries and sectors

Forest carbon sinks have been included in the Kyoto Protocol as one of the mechanisms for mitigating climate change. Consequently, credited sinks decrease the need to reduce emissions.We analyse in detail both the economywide and the sectoral effects of inclusion of carbon sinks as agreed upon in Bonn and Marrakesh for the first commitment period of 2008–2012. The focus of our analysis is the special treatment for Canada and Japan that allows them larger sinks. The analysis is performed with the multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP-E.

New Zealand benefits most from the inclusion of sinks as it gains large carbon sinks from afforestation. Also in Sweden, Canada and Japan the costs of achieving the emission target are considerably reduced. Of these countries, only Canada has high costs without sinks. Thus credited sinks partly reduce the difference in economic burden of achieving the Kyoto target among countries. Even though larger sinks clearly benefit Canada and Japan, their effect on other countries, either on the economywide or on the sectoral level, remains marginal. Allowing larger sinks is, indeed, of relatively minor importance for the world economy and emission reduction, compared to the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol.     

A 10Be‐based reconstruction of the last deglaciation in southern Sweden

We present 23 cosmogenic surface exposure ages from 10 localities in southern Sweden. The new ¹⁰Be ages allow a direct correlation between the east and west coasts of southern Sweden, based on the same dating technique, and provide new information about the deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet in the circum‐Baltic area. In western Skåne, southernmost Sweden, a single cosmogenic surface exposure sample gave an age of 16.8±1.0 ka, whereas two samples from the central part of Skåne gave ages of 17.0±0.9 and 14.1±0.8 ka. Further northeast, in southern Småland, two localities gave ages ranging from 15.2±0.8 to 16.9±0.9 ka (n=5) indicating a somewhat earlier deglaciation of the area than has previously been suggested. Our third locality, in S Småland, gave ages ranging from 10.2±0.5 to 18.4±1.6 ka (n=3), which are probably not representative of the timing of deglaciation. In central Småland one locality was dated to 14.5±0.8 ka (n=3), whereas our northernmost locality, situated in northern Småland, was dated to 13.8±0.8 ka (n=3). Samples from the island of Gotland suggest deglaciation before 13 ka ago. We combined the new ¹⁰Be ages with previously published deglaciation ages to constrain the deglaciation chronology of southern Sweden. The combined deglaciation chronology suggests a rather steady deglaciation in southern Sweden starting at c. 17.9 cal. ka BP in NW Skåne and reaching northern Småland, ～200 km further north, c. 13.8 ka ago. Overall the new deglaciation ages agree reasonably well with existing deglaciation chronologies, but suggest a somewhat earlier deglaciation in Småland.     

Temporospatial dynamics and public health significance of bacterial flora identified on a major leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) nesting beach in the Southern Caribbean

Grande Riviere beach, on the island of Trinidad, supports the largest nesting population of leatherback turtles in the Caribbean region. Throughout the nesting season, nests are naturally disturbed by newly nesting females, resulting in egg breakage and loss of some nest viability. This environment is ideal for the growth and proliferation of microorganisms. The range of bacterial flora present in beach sand and egg shells was examined, with emphasis on bacteria that may pose a threat to public and animal health. The extent to which the bacterial load and genera on the beach changed throughout the season was also assessed. Twenty‐five genera were identified, with Pseudomonas spp. found to be the most predominant environmental bacteria. Four genera identified possess zoonotic potential, while five additional genera are known to be of public and animal health significance. Distinct shifts in the density and distribution of bacteria were observed along the beach from early to peak nesting season. Shifts were seen across heavily traversed zones, thus highlighting the potential exposure threats posed to beach visitors and animals alike. Further studies aimed at speciating this population of bacteria, as well as isolating potential fungal pathogens may mitigate this threat. Identification of bacterial agents that are specifically pathogenic to leatherback turtles, turtle eggs, hatchlings and those who may interact with these animals will serve to enhance and guide efforts to better conserve this species and protect the health of all who visit this ecologically significant site.