Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater – the disregarded component in lake water and nutrient budgets. Part 2: effects of groundwater on nutrients

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) transports nutrients from a catchment to a lake, which may fuel eutrophication, one of the major threats to our fresh waters. Unfortunately, LGD has often been disregarded in lake nutrient studies. Most measurement techniques are based on separate determinations of volume and nutrient concentration of LGD: Loads are calculated by multiplying seepage volumes by concentrations of exfiltrating water. Typically low phosphorus (P) concentrations of pristine groundwater often are increased due to anthropogenic sources such as fertilizer, manure or sewage. Mineralization of naturally present organic matter might also increase groundwater P. Reducing redox conditions favour P transport through the aquifer to the reactive aquifer‐lake interface. In some cases, large decreases of P concentrations may occur at the interface, for example, due to increased oxygen availability, while in other cases, there is nearly no decrease in P. The high reactivity of the interface complicates quantification of groundwater‐borne P loads to the lake, making difficult clear differentiation of internal and external P loads to surface water. Anthropogenic sources of nitrogen (N) in groundwater are similar to those of phosphate. However, the environmental fate of N differs fundamentally from P because N occurs in several different redox states, each with different mobility. While nitrate behaves essentially conservatively in most oxic aquifers, ammonium's mobility is similar to that of phosphate. Nitrate may be transformed to gaseous N₂ in reducing conditions and permanently removed from the system. Biogeochemical turnover of N is common at the reactive aquifer‐lake interface. Nutrient loads from LGD were compiled from the literature. Groundwater‐borne P loads vary from 0.74 to 2900 mg PO₄‐P m^?2 year^?1; for N, these loads vary from 0.001 to 640 g m^?2 year^?1. Even small amounts of seepage can carry large nutrient loads due to often high nutrient concentrations in groundwater. Large spatial heterogeneity, uncertain areal extent of the interface and difficult accessibility make every determination of LGD a challenge. However, determinations of LGD are essential to effective lake management. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytical prediction of aggregates' effects on the ITZ volume fraction and Young's modulus of concrete

In order to evaluate analytically the ITZ volume fraction (f_ITZ) in concrete, a three phase model is proposed for the random concrete microstructure using the Voronoï tessellation. Within this model, the ITZ local thickness is a statistical variable depending on the local paste thickness available between each couple of neighbouring aggregates. The f_ITZ is found to not exceed 7% for typical concretes. Then, the concrete Young's modulus is predicted analytically using a four‐phase generalized self consistent model but in which the proposed f_ITZ is considered. It is found that the concrete Young's modulus increases when increasing aggregates volume fraction, aggregates maximum size and the proportion of coarse aggregates and when decreasing the ITZ thickness and Young's modulus. Finally, the validity of the proposed model is discussed based on a comparison between its predictions and three sets of experimental results related to normal and high strength concretes taken from literature. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mid‐Weichselian interstadial in Kolari,western Finnish Lapland

Finnish Lapland is known as an area where numerous sites with sediments from Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods occur. Recent sedimentological observations and dating call for reinterpretation of the record, which shows a complicated Mid‐Weichselian ice‐sheet evolution within the ice‐divide zone. Here, a large, previously unstudied section from a former Hannukainen iron mine was investigated sedimentologically and dated with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). Ten sedimentary units were identified displaying a variety of depositional environments (glacial, glaciolacustrine, fluvial and aeolian). They are all – except for the lowermost, deeply weathered till – interpreted to be of Mid‐ or Late Weichselian/Holocene age. Five OSL samples from fluvial sediments give ages ranging from 55 to 35 ka, indicating two MIS 3 ice‐free intervals of unknown duration. The Mid‐Weichselian interstadial was interrupted by a re‐advance event, which occurred later than 35 ka and caused glaciotectonic deformation, folding and stacking of older sediments. This new evidence emphasizes the importance of the Kolari area when unravelling the complex Late Pleistocene glacial history of northern Finland and adjacent regions.