The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.
POLICY RELEVANCE
Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets. 相似文献
A special kind of magma mixing is extraordinarily well exposed in the Bittersberg subvolcanic complex in the Tertiary volcanic field of the German Westerwald: A trachytic melt has been penetrated by a latitic dyke which has been dispersed within the host magma as small spherical enclaves (globules). Whole rock analyses of the globules show a change in composition that cannot be explained by a simple mechanical mixing between the endmembers. The most evolved globules have a phonolitic composition. Microprobe measurements in the microlithic matrix of the host rock and the guest indicate a diffusive motion of the alkalis from the host into the globules. On the other hand, an opposite trend can be observed for Ca, Mg, Fe and Ti, which are impoverished in the globules. The trace elements and the middle rare earth elements (MREE) has also been involved in the diffusive exchange. The REE-pattern of the most evolved (phonolitic) globules shows a characteristic trough in the area of the MREE which is almost identical to the REE-pattern of many phonolites. The phonolites and the alkali-rich trachytes of the Westerwald show similar globular textures as the Bittersberg volcanics. Therefore, generation of these rocks involving diffusive element exchange during mixing processes in a magma reservoir situated on a deeper crustal level may be possible. 相似文献
In the context of geological carbon sequestration (GCS), carbon dioxide (CO2) is often injected into deep formations saturated with a brine that may contain dissolved light hydrocarbons, such as methane (CH4). In this multicomponent multiphase displacement process, CO2 competes with CH4 in terms of dissolution, and CH4 tends to exsolve from the aqueous into a gaseous phase. Because CH4 has a lower viscosity than injected CO2, CH4 is swept up into a ‘bank’ of CH4‐rich gas ahead of the CO2 displacement front. On the one hand, this may provide a useful tracer signal of an approaching CO2 front. On the other hand, the emergence of gaseous CH4 is undesirable because it poses a leakage risk of a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 if the cap rock is compromised. Open fractures or faults and wells could result in CH4 contamination of overlying groundwater aquifers as well as surface emissions. We investigate this process through detailed numerical simulations for a large‐scale GCS pilot project (near Cranfield, Mississippi) for which a rich set of field data is available. An accurate cubic‐plus‐association equation‐of‐state is used to describe the non‐linear phase behavior of multiphase brine‐CH4‐CO2 mixtures, and breakthrough curves in two observation wells are used to constrain transport processes. Both field data and simulations indeed show the development of an extensive plume of CH4‐rich (up to 90 mol%) gas as a consequence of CO2 injection, with important implications for the risk assessment of future GCS projects. 相似文献
Stress variation and fluid migration occur in deformation zones, which are expected to affect seismic waves reflected off or propagating across such structures. We developed a basic experimental approach to monitor the mechanical coupling with respect to seismic coupling across a single discontinuity between a granite sample in contact with a steel platen. Piezoceramics located on the platen were used to both generate and record the P and S wave fields reflected off the discontinuity at normal incidence. This way, normal (Bn) and tangential (Bt) compliances were calculated using Schoenberg’s linear slip theory (Schoenberg, J Acoust Soc Am 68:1516–1521, 1980) when the roughness, the effective pressure (Peff, up to 200 MPa), and the nature of the filling (gas or water) vary. We observe that increasing the effective pressure decreases Bn and Bt, which is interpreted as the effect of the closure of the voids at the interface, permitting more seismic energy to be transmitted across the interface. Values of Bn are significantly higher than those of Bt at low Peff (<60–80 MPa) in dry conditions, and significantly drop under water-saturated conditions. The water filling the voids therefore helps to transmit the seismic energy of compressional waves across the interface. These results show that the assumption Bn ≈ Bt commonly found in some theoretical approaches does not always stand. The ratio Bn/Bt actually reflects the type of saturating fluids and the effective pressure, in agreement with other experimental studies. However, we illustrate that only the relative variations of this ratio seem to be relevant, not its absolute value as suggested in previous studies. Consequently, the use of Bn against Bt plots may allow effective pressure variation and the nature of the pore fluid to be inferred. In this respect, this experimental approach at sample scale helps to pave the way for remotely monitoring in the field the hydro-mechanical state of deformation zones, such as seismogenic faults, fractured reservoirs, or lava conduits. 相似文献
A field survey of zooplankton communities was carried out in 32 recently established tropical semi-arid reservoirs in the highlands of Northern Ethiopia with the aim to identify to what extent environmental factors determine species composition of the cladoceran community in such isolated and young reservoirs. To address seasonal variation, the survey was carried out both at the beginning and the end of the dry season. A total of 15 species of cladocerans were identified. Daphnia was the most abundant cladoceran genus, and was present in all reservoirs. Using presence-absence data, no association between cladoceran community composition and geographic distance was found. RDA results indicate that the set of environmental variables that explained cladoceran community composition differed among seasons. Depth, altitude and fish biomass showed a significant association with cladoceran community composition during the wet season, whereas variation in cladoceran community structure was associated with phytoplankton biomass in the dry season. The relative abundance of Daphnia was much higher in the pelagic than in the littoral zone of our study systems. Two key groups of pelagic filter-feeding cladocerans, Diaphanosoma and Daphnia, showed a clear pattern, in which one or the other tended to strongly dominate the community. In addition, we observed a negative association between dominance of Daphnia in the zooplankton community and dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community. 相似文献