Estimating the spatial pattern of human-caused forest fires using a generalized linear mixed model with spatial autocorrelation in South Korea

Most forest fires in Korea are spatially concentrated in certain areas and are highly related to human activities. These site-specific characteristics of forest fires are analyzed by spatial regression analysis using the R-module generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), which can consider spatial autocorrelation. We examined the quantitative effect of topology, human accessibility, and forest cover without and with spatial autocorrelation. Under the assumption that slope, elevation, aspect, population density, distance from road, and forest cover are related to forest fire occurrence, the explanatory variables of each of these factors were prepared using a Geographic Information System-based process. First, we tried to test the influence of fixed effects on the occurrence of forest fires using a generalized linear model (GLM) with Poisson distribution. In addition, the overdispersion of the response data was also detected, and variogram analysis was performed using the standardized residuals of GLM. Second, GLMM was applied to consider the obvious residual autocorrelation structure. The fitted models were validated and compared using the multiple correlation and root mean square error (RMSE). Results showed that slope, elevation, aspect index, population density, and distance from road were significant factors capable of explaining the forest fire occurrence. Positive spatial autocorrelation was estimated up to a distance of 32 km. The kriging predictions based on GLMM were smoother than those of the GLM. Finally, a forest fire occurrence map was prepared using the results from both models. The fire risk decreases with increasing distance to areas with high population densities, and increasing elevation showed a suppressing effect on fire occurrence. Both variables are in accordance with the significance tests.     

Interannual variability of air temperature inversions in ice-free area of northern James Ross Island,Antarctica

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Air temperature inversions are common features in Antarctica, especially in the interior where they are observed nearly year-round. Large temporal variability...     

Numerical studies of chaotic Hilda-type orbits

Earlier work indicates a comparatively rapid chaotic evolution of the orbits of some Hilda asteroids that move at the border of the domain occupied by the characteristic parameters of the objects at the 3/2 mean motion resonance. A simple Jupiter–Saturn model of the forces leads to numerical results on some of these cases and allows a search for additional resonances that can contribute to the chaotic evolution. In this context the importance of the secondary resonances that depend on the period of revolution of the argument of perihelion is pointed out. Among the studied additional resonances there are three-body resonances with arguments that depend on the mean longitudes of Jupiter, Saturn, and asteroid, but on slowly circulating angular elements of the asteroid as well, and the frequency of these arguments is close to a rational ratio with respect to the frequency of the libration due to the basic resonance.     

Differences in the eutrophication dynamics of Ammersee and Starnberger See (Southern Germany), reflected by the diatom succession in varve-dated sediments

Diatom assemblages in the annually laminated sediments of two neighboring, pre-alpine lakes (Ammersee and Starnberger See, Southern Germany) were analyzed and compared year by year. Within both varve records of the last decades, the same 4-phase-succession of planktonic diatom species is preserved, consisting of 1. a dominance of Cyclotella species 2. assemblages of Fragilaria crotonensis, Asterionella formosa and Stephanodiscus minutulus 3. a mass bloom of Aulacoseira islandica, and 4. a dominance of Stephanodiscus species. This diatom sequence is considered as a model of a 'basic species sequence of eutrophication'. Time lags and differences in the duration of the phases between both lakes show evidence of an earlier start for nutrient loading in Starnberger See than in Ammersee, and a faster development to a higher trophic state level in the latter. The different reactions of the lakes are attributed to hydrological differences such as the existence or lack of a major tributary, the size of the catchment area, and the water residence time. The reconstruction of the eutrophication dynamics appears to be reliably hindcast by the inference of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations using weighted averaging regression and calibration techniques. Remarkable differences in the occurrence of some diatoms in both stratigraphies, which are not related to the general changes of the 'basic species sequence of eutrophication' model, may be due to the epilimnetic silica content (e.g. Fragilaria crotonensis) or competitive weaknesses (e.g. Tabellaria flocculosa).     

Sediment-chemistry response to land-use change and pollutant loading in a hypertrophic lake, southern Sweden

Responses to recent land-use changes and pollutant loading in the sediment of a hypertrophic lake in southern Sweden were studied by comparison of geochemical, pollen and magnetic records with historical land-use data. A chronology was constructed for the last two centuries by correlating changes in the pollen diagram to major events in the land-use history. Sediment accumulation was low (mean c. 0.2 g cm^-2 yr^-1) prior to 1800 AD, when less than 25% of the catchment was arable land. Reorganization of the agrarian system during the 19th century increased the annually tilled area by 300%, which accelerated soil erosion and substantially increased the accumulation of allochtonous matter in the lake. Since the turn of the century 90% of the catchment has been ploughed every year. The deposition of clastic matter in the lake has, however, decreased due to a gradual rerouting of the drainage system, which has reduced the effective catchment area by c. 85%.Authigenic vivianite (Fe3(PO4)2.8H2O) is a major P phase in the preindustrial non-sulphidic sediments, which suggests that the sediments at that time served as a fairly efficient sink for P. The arable expansion, increased manuring and, eventually, the introduction of artificial fertilizers during the 19th century led to a massive influx of nutrients, which elevated primary production in the lake. Subsequent development of bottom water anoxia around 1900, in combination with an additional pollutant burden of sulphate within the lake basin, led to major alterations of the biogeochemical cycles. The most critical change in the post-1900 sediments involved the cycling of Fe and P. The linkage between the lacustrine P and Fe cycles can explain that FeS formation was paralleled by a release of P from the sedimentary pool. This supply of P to the lake basin must have supplemented the nutrient supply by modern agriculture and contributed to recent hypertrophication. The bacterial sulphate reduction also affected the generation of alkalinity which supported a significant calcite precipitation in the post-1900 sediments.S is enriched 10-fold in the post-1900 sediments compared to preindustrial values. Along with the rise in S, soot particles derived from fossil fuel combustion appear in the sediments for the first time. Therefore, Bussj¨osj¨on is thought to be a good example of how a well-buffered, highly productive lake may respond to the pollution by sulphur from acid rain.     

A Fresh Look at Dickinsonia： Removing It from Vendobionta

The Ediacaran Dickinsonia is well-known for being the only fossil to be assigned to many phyla, ranging from lichens, Cnidaria, Piatyheiminthes, Annelida, and a phylum of its own to a nonmetazoan kingdom. A new specimen from the Ediacaran fine-grained sandstone on the Winter Coast of the White Sea in northern Russia, which has an age of -555 million years ago, preserved convincing internal anatomies of definite animals, comparable with meridionai canals of extant ctenophores （comb jellies）. Additionally, we reconsidered Dickinsonia as a biradiaily symmetrical animal rather than a bilateral one as previously thought. The animal nature of Dickinsonia is, thus, well established and its affinities are most probably allied to ctenophores. This research is not only removing Dickinsonia from Vendobionta, but also bringing the fossil record of ctenophores forward to 20 million years before the Cambrian ＂explosion＂.     

Closing-up structures, alternatives to pull-apart basins; the effect of bends in the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey

Fault blocks passing bends or stepovers in a fault zone must adapt their margins to the uneven fault trace. Two cases of adaption are distinguished for extensional bends or stepovers (transtension): (1) The fault margins close up behind a single bend ('knickpoint') of a strike-slip fault and a 'closing-up structure' (new term) arises or (2) fault-block margins are extended behind a releasing bend (double bend) or stepover parallel to the displacement and a pull-apart basin originates. The dosing up described here is accomplished by acute-angled synthetic strike-slip faults that dissect the straight fault in front of a knickpoint to form a zig-zag block boundary behind it. Crustal extension is also involved in the closing-up structure, but in a different way from typical pull-apart basins.
The closing-up structure illustrated was developed behind an extensional knickpoint in the North Anatolian Fault west of Lake Abant, NW Turkey, where the process of closing up continues to this day. The kinematic model of this closing-up structure is supported by displacements and ruptures observed during the 1967 Mudurnu valley earthquake and the 1957 Abant earthquake.     

Does the Fornax dwarf spheroidal have a central cusp or core?

The dark matter dominated Fornax dwarf spheroidal has five globular clusters orbiting at ∼1 kpc from its centre. In a cuspy cold dark matter halo the globulars would sink to the centre from their current positions within a few Gyr, presenting a puzzle as to why they survive undigested at the present epoch. We show that a solution to this timing problem is to adopt a cored dark matter halo. We use numerical simulations and analytic calculations to show that, under these conditions, the sinking time becomes many Hubble times; the globulars effectively stall at the dark matter core radius. We conclude that the Fornax dwarf spheroidal has a shallow inner density profile with a core radius constrained by the observed positions of its globular clusters. If the phase space density of the core is primordial then it implies a warm dark matter particle and gives an upper limit to its mass of ∼0.5 keV, consistent with that required to significantly alleviate the substructure problem.