Grundlagen einer synoptisch-statistischen Theorie der Druckänderungen

Zusammenfassung Es werden die Grundlagen einer synoptisch-statistischen Theorie der Druckänderungen entwickelt. Diese beruht im wesentlichen auf folgenden Annahmen: Zwischen zwei um ein bestimmtes Zeitintervall auseinanderliegenden Werten eines meteorologischen Elementes (im vorliegenden Fall der Höhe der 850 mb-Druckfläche) an einem gegebenen Punkt des Feldes besteht eine Korrelation. Die dazu gehörende Regressionsbeziehung kann auf Grund allgemein gültiger Prinzipien abgeleitet werden. Es erübrigt sich in einem solchen Fall, auf die komplizierten, ohne wesentliche Vereinfachungen kaum lösbaren, thermo-hydrodynamischen Gleichungen einzugehen. Die verwendeten allgemeinen Prinzipien sind: Erhaltungstendenz von Druckanomalien (bezogen auf langjährige Normalwerte), Ausgleichstendenz für bestehende räumliche Druckgegensätze, Kompensation oder Gegenläufigkeit bestimmter Abläufe, d. h. ein Mechanismus, der entgegengesetzte Effekte bezüglich eines meteorologischen Elementes in der vertikalen und horizontalen Verteilung verursacht. Es kann gezeigt werden, daß eine entsprechende Regressionsbeziehung aufzustellen ist, die den beiden ersten Prinzipien genügt. Untersuchungen über das dritte Prinzip sind noch nicht abgeschlossen. Die Erhaltungstendenz wurde bereits vonNamias erfolgreich für die Konstruktion von Trendkarten verwendet. Um eine entsprechende Beziehung abzuleiten, die dem Ausgleichsprinzip gerecht wird, wurde eine Korrelation zwischen einem räumlichen und einem zeitlichen Mittelwert mittels einer hinreichend großen Anzahl von Beobachtungen hergeleitet. Auf diese Weise wird es möglich, eine Prognosenformel aufzustellen für eine über einen Zeitraum von 24 Stunden gemittelte Vorhersagekarte. Die praktische Anwendung dieser Formel wird an Hand von 10 Wetterlagen überprüft. Die Korrelationskoeffizienten für die Treffsicherheit der Prognose liegen zwischen 0,86 und 0,98

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Summary The idea of a synoptic-statistical theor of pressure variations is outlined. This theory is based upon the assumption that a closs correlation exists between two values of a meteorological quantity (in our special case the height of the 850 mb-contours) separated by a given time interval at a given point and that the appropriate regression line can be obtained with the aid of general principles. Then it is unnecessary to consider the complicated thermo-hydrodynamical equations which can hardly be solved without essential simplifications. The general principles used are: Principle of persistence tendency of pressure anomalies (with regard to long range period normals), principle of equalization tendency of existing pressure differences, principle of compensation i. e. a mechanism which produces contrary effects with regard to the vertical and also horizontal distribution of the meteorological quantity under consideration. It is shown that a relation for regression lines can be found making use of the first and second principle. Investigations concerning the third principle are not yet finished. The persistence tendency has been used successfully byNamias for constructing trend charts. In order to obtain a relation which allows for the effect of equalization of pressure differences a correlation is derived between space and time means using a suffiently large number of observations. By this way it is possible to set up a prognostic formula for a 24 hours mean prebaratic. The practical application of the formula is proved for 10 weather situations. The resulting correlation coefficients for the skill of the forecast range between 0,86 and 0,98.

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Résumé L'auteur développe une théorie reposant sur les varations de pression considérées du point de vue synoptique et statistique. Il admet qu'entre deux valeurs consécutives de la hauteur de la surface isobare de 850 mb en un point fixe existe une corrélation dont on peut déduire une relation de régression. Il est inutile dans ce cas de se servir des équations thermo- et hydrodynamiques insolubles sans simplifications importantes. Les principes généraux retenus sont: tendance à la persistance des anomalies de pression (relatives à des moyennes pluriannuelles), tendance à la compensation des différences de pression spatiales, compensation ou opposition de certains processus, c'est à dire un mécanisme qui provoque des effets opposés d'un élément météorologique dans la verticale et dans l'horizontale. Il est possible d'établir une relation de régression satisfaisant les deux premiers principes; les recherches concernant le troisième principe ne sont pas encore achevées. La tendance à la persistance a été déjà utilisée avec succès parNamias pour dresser des cartes d'évolution. Pour obtenir une relation satisfaisant le principe de compensation, on a établi une corrélation entre une moyenne spatiale et une moyenne temporelle à l'aide d'un nombre suffisant d'observations. De la sorte il devient possible d'écrire une formule de prévision pour une carte de prévision relative à un intervalle de 24 heures. On vérifie la formule sur 10 cartes synoptiques. Les coefficients de corrélation pour la probabilité de réussite de la prévision varient entre 0,86 et 0,98.

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Zweifache Spiralen im tropischen Wirbelsturm

Zusammenfassung Orkan und Taifun werden als aus logarithmisch gekrümmten Austauschwalzen aufgehaut betrachtet. Sie bestehen aus doppelten Spiralen, entstanden beim Zusammentreffen zweier Luftströme: der im Zentrum röhrenförmig aufsteigenden tropischen Warmluft und einer zweiten horizontalen Komponente. Einige Merkmale, wie Art der Regenfälle, Art der elektrischen Entladungen, die Wolkenbilder und die Schleppe, passen zu dieser Vorstellung.

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Summary Hurricane and typhoon are considered as built up from logarithmically curved exchange cylinders. These bihelices are formed by the confluence of two air-currents: the tropical warm air in shape of a tube rising in the center and a second horizontal component. Some characteristics such as the shape of the rainfalls and of the electrical discharges, the species of clouds and the train are in agreement with this conception.

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Résumé Ouragan et typhon sont regardés comme construits par cylindres échangeants — courbées dans un sens logarithmique. Ils se composent d'hélices doubles formées par le confluent de deux courants d'air: de l'air chaud tropical ascendant dans le centre sous forme d'un tube et d'une deuxième composante horizontale. Quelque caractéristiques comme la forme des chutes de pluie et des décharges électriques, les formations des nuages et la traîne sont en bon accord avec ce concept.

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Unique isoprene oxidation products demonstrate chlorine atom chemistry occurs in the Houston,Texas urban area

As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO) and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~10² atoms cm⁻³ and 50 _{- 30} ^{+ 70} ×10⁴ 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 _{- 2.0} ^{+ 4.7} ×10⁴ 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³ and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the Houston, Texas urban area.     

Potentialities and limitations of conventional climatological data for desertification monitoring and control

There is a general lack of meteorological data in arid and semiarid regions, despite the need for such information for the proper exploitation of these areas. Drought is a natural part of the climate of these regions, just like anywhere else. Drought indices are surveyed and the statistical nature of drought is stressed. The correlation between average temperature and precipitation is explored, as well as the role of wind in creating conditions favorable for the intensification of desert conditions.     

Characteristics of precipitation in northern Mauritania and its links with sea surface temperature

This paper deals with the periodic fluctuation of precipitation at three meteorological stations (Atar, Chenguitti, and Akjoujt) in the Adrar and Inchiri provinces in northern Mauritania and its links with sea surface temperature (SST). Trends for these three meteorological stations were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall (MK) nonparametric test, regression analysis, and autocorrelation for persistence analysis. The MK test showed a significant decreasing trend for Akjoujt and an insignificant trend for the other rainfall time series. However, the decreasing linear regression trends were highly significant for the different time series. On the other hand, persistence analysis indicated the presence of a linear Markov type. The cycles found by power spectrum analysis ranged from 0.5 years to about 11 years. The possibility of a connection between precipitation in this region and sunspot numbers was suggested. SST of the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, and Mediterranean Sea have significant cross-correlations with precipitation in the study area. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect was found to be marginal.     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

Modelling interactions between fold–thrust belt deformation, foreland flexure and surface mass transport

Interactions between fold and thrust belt deformation, foreland flexure and surface mass transport are investigated using a newly developed mathematical model incorporating fully dynamic coupling between mechanics and surface processes. The mechanical model is two dimensional (plane strain) and includes an elasto‐visco‐plastic rheology. The evolving model is flexurally compensated using an elastic beam formulation. Erosion and deposition at the surface are treated in a simple manner using a linear diffusion equation. The model is solved with the finite element method using a Lagrangian scheme with marker particles. Because the model is particle based, it enables straightforward tracking of stratigraphy and exhumation paths and it can sustain very large strain. It is thus ideally suited to study deformation, erosion and sedimentation in fold–thrust belts and foreland basins. The model is used to investigate how fold–thrust deformation and foreland basin development is influenced by the non‐dimensional parameter , which can be interpreted as the ratio of the deformation time scale to the time scale for surface processes. Large values of imply that the rate of surface mass transport is significantly greater than the rate of deformation. When , the rates of surface processes are so slow that one observes a classic propagating fold–thrust belt with well‐developed wedge top basins and a largely underfilled foreland flexural depression. Increasing causes (1) deposition to shift progressively from the wedge top into the foredeep, which deepens and may eventually become filled, (2) widespread exhumation of the fold–thrust belt, (3) reduced rates of frontal thrust propagation and possible attainment of a steady‐state orogen width and (4) change in the style and dynamics of deformation. Together, these effects indicate that erosion and sedimentation, rather than passively responding to tectonics, play an active and dynamic role in the development of fold–thrust belts and foreland basins. Results demonstrate that regional differences in the relative rates of surface processes (e.g. because of different climatic settings) may lead to fold–thrust belts and foreland basins with markedly different characteristics. Results also imply that variations in the efficiency of surface processes through time (e.g., because of climate change or the emergence of orogens above sea level) may cause major temporal changes in orogen and basin dynamics.     

Re-evaluation of focal depths and source mechanisms of selected earthquakes in the Afar depression

We present a stepwise inversion procedure to assess the focal depth and model earthquake source complexity of seven moderate-sized earthquakes  (6.2 > M _w > 5.1)  that occurred in the Afar depression and the surrounding region. The Afar depression is a region of highly extended and intruded lithosphere, and zones of incipient seafloor spreading. A time-domain inversion of full moment tensor was performed to model direct P and SH waves of teleseismic data. Waveform inversion of the selected events estimated focal depths in the range of 17–22 km, deeper than previously published results. This suggests that the brittle–ductile transition zone beneath parts of the Afar depression extends more than 22 km. The effect of near-source velocity structure on the moment tensor elements was also investigated and was found to respond little to the models considered. Synthetic tests indicate that the size of the estimated, non-physical, non-isotropic source component is rather sensitive to incorrect depth estimation. The dominant double couple part of the moment tensor solutions for most of the events indicates that their occurrence is mainly due to shearing. Parameters associated with source directivity (rupture velocity and azimuth) were also investigated. Re-evaluation of the analysed events shows predominantly normal faulting consistent with the relative plate motions in the region.