Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.     

Effect of crab size and habitat type on the locomotory activity of juvenile shore crabs, Carcinus maenas

Post-settlement processes are a major focus in the study of the dynamics of marine populations and communities. Post-settlement movement of juveniles is an important, but often ignored, process which affects local predator–prey and competitive interactions. We used benthic suction sampling and pitfall traps to examine density and locomotory activity of Carcinus maenas juveniles in different intertidal habitat types in the Rio Mira Estuary, Portugal, to better understand intra-specific interactions in a system where density-dependent processes are known to regulate population dynamics. As expected, significantly higher densities of juvenile shore crabs were found from bare mud compared to densely vegetated habitats. At the time of sampling, small and intermediate stages together outnumbered by far the larger juveniles. Conversely, larger crabs were much more frequent than smaller ones in traps. A locomotory index (LI), i.e. the ratio between crab catch in pitfall traps and their density within their moving range, is proposed as a measure of movement. LI analyses indicated that: (1) movement is an order of magnitude higher in large than small juveniles and much higher in sparse than dense vegetation cover; (2) activity of small juveniles is mostly crepuscular, regardless of vegetation cover; and (3) movement of large juveniles is very limited in dense Zostera patches, but very high in sparsely vegetated areas, during the day and night. These results suggest that small juveniles are relatively protected under dense vegetation cover due to lower mobility of larger crabs, and provide evidence of temporal segregation of activity windows between juvenile crabs of different sizes, which may be a key mechanism to reduce cannibalism and therefore increase the carrying capacity of nursery habitats.     

Orbite de L'Étoile Burnham 1164 – ADS 1156 B–765 (95 Piscium)

The physical and orbital elements of the binary star ADS 1156 = B 1164 (α₁₉₀₀ = 01^h 22^m.0, δ₁₉₀₀ = + 04°50′) are determined. The absolute visual magnitudes of the two components are 3^m.72 resp. 3^m.97, the masses 1.43 M⊙ resp. 1.33 M⊙.     

Propagation and Damping of a Localized Impulsive Longitudinal Perturbation in Coronal Loops

We use linear analysis to simulate the evolution of a coronal loop in response to a localized impulsive event. The disturbance is modeled by injecting a narrow Gaussian velocity pulse near one footpoint of a loop in equilibrium. Three different damping mechanisms, namely viscosity, thermal conduction, and optically thin radiation, are included in the loop calculations. We consider homogeneous and gravitationally stratified, isothermal loops of varying length (50≤L≤400 Mm) and temperature (2≤T≤10 MK). We find that a localized pulse can effectively excite slow magnetoacoustic waves that propagate up along the loop. The amplitudes of the oscillations increase with decreasing loop temperature and increasing loop length and size of the pulse width. At T≥4 MK, the waves are dissipated by the combined effects of viscosity and thermal conduction, whereas at temperatures of 2 MK, or lower, wave dissipation is governed by radiative cooling. We predict periods in the range of 4.6?–?41.6 minutes. The wave periods remain unaltered by variations of the pulse size, decrease with the loop temperature, and increase almost linearly with the loop length. In addition, gravitational stratification results in a small reduction of the periods and amplification of the waves as they propagate up along the loop.     

Distribution and spatial variation of hydrothermal faunal assemblages at Lucky Strike (Mid-Atlantic Ridge) revealed by high-resolution video image analysis

Whilst the fauna inhabiting hydrothermal vent structures in the Atlantic Ocean is reasonably well known, less is understood about the spatial distributions of the fauna in relation to abiotic and biotic factors. In this study, a major active hydrothermal edifice (Eiffel Tower, at 1690 m depth) on the Lucky Strike vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR)) was investigated. Video transects were carried out by ROV Victor 6000 and complete image coverage was acquired. Four distinct assemblages, ranging from dense larger-sized Bathymodiolus mussel beds to smaller-sized mussel clumps and alvinocaridid shrimps, and two types of substrata were defined based on high definition photographs and video imagery. To evaluate spatial variation, faunal distribution was mapped in three dimensions. A high degree of patchiness characterizes this 11 m high sulfide structure. The differences observed in assemblage and substratum distribution were related to habitat characteristics (fluid exits, depth and structure orientation). Gradients in community structure were observed, which coincided with an increasing distance from the fluid exits. A biological zonation model for the Eiffel Tower edifice was created in which faunal composition and distribution can be visually explained by the presence/absence of fluid exits.     

The Common Fisheries Policy: An enforcement problem

Marine populations in Europe are in decline due to the unsuccessful results of the Common Fisheries Policy. By combining data of scientific recommendations from ICES, TACs approved and reported landings with an age-structured model, the objectives of this paper are to investigate the level of compliance of the TAC regulation, and the level of enforcement and its economic impact on fishery resources. The results presented here suggest that while there does not exist a regular pattern between TAC proposal and TAC approved, there is a clear pattern between TAC approved and reported landings. As a consequence, there is a regular lack of enforcement at national fisheries authority level. The paper also presents results of the recovery plans for the Southern hake and the Atlantic cod fisheries as case studies to illustrate the level of enforcement based on collusion between national fisheries advisers and industry. The results from both cases studies analyzed here indicate that drastic solutions could generate positive results for the recovery of the stocks, but perhaps they are not always the best measure in fisheries management due to the high economic losses for fishermen and social effects on coastal communities in the short and medium term. Finally, this work demonstrates that if the recovery plans had been implemented, the net present profits for both fisheries would have increased over time.     

Diel and seasonal variability in the fish community structure of a mud‐bottom estuarine habitat in the Gulf of Mexico

We hypothesized that temporal variation in fish species composition and community structure in a low complexity habitat in the Pueblo Viejo Lagoon, Mexico, is influenced by diel light/dark cycles and tidal stage, and by seasonal changes in salinity and temperature. We collected a total of 17,661 individuals during 2‐h interval sampling over six bi‐monthly 24‐h sampling cycles representing 53 species, of which 11 (～20%) were previously unknown in the system. Diel variation indicated that significantly higher numbers of individuals and species were caught at night, whereas diversity and evenness were higher during the day. Species richness was significantly higher in July and January, whereas diversity and evenness peaked around May; both were correlated with temperature. Diel variation in species composition was influenced primarily by the light/dark cycle. Cluster analyses of each diel cycle separated fish assemblages from midday samples from those of nocturnal samples, separated by an extended wide transition period as fish moved at dawn and during the late afternoon/dusk. Significant shifts (as determined by MANOVA) in assemblage structure occurred between months. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that temperature and day/night effects were the most important environmental variables structuring the fish community. This constrained ordination also defined species with specific habitat preferences as follows: (i) diurnal, warm temperature species (mainly planktivores) (Brevoortia gunteri, Cetengraulis edentulus, Diapterus auratus, and Membras martinica); (ii) nocturnal, warm temperature species (mainly predators) (Citharichthys spilopterus, Cathorops melanopus, and Bairdiella spp.); and (iii) low temperature, diurnal species (Brevoortia patronus and Mugil curema) or those with twilight and nocturnal distributions (Anchoa mitchilli, the most numerically abundant species). Our results indicate that diel and seasonal changes in fish community structure were mainly related to day/night cycles and temperature regimes.     

Ecological distribution of Stephanodiscus niagarae Ehrenberg in central Mexico and niche modeling for its last glacial maximum habitat suitability in the Nearctic realm

Journal of Paleolimnology - Stephanodiscus niagarae Ehrenberg is currently restricted to specific regions of central Mexico, however, during the late Pleistocene, it had a wider distribution in the...     

A review of the assessments of the major fisheries resources in South Africa

The waters off South Africa's coastline boast a rich mix of commercially fished species. Quantitative assessments of these marine resources have developed from simple methods first applied in the 1970s, to models that encompass a wide range of methodologies. The more valuable resources have undergone regular assessments in recent decades, with frequencies closely related to the management approach employed for each fishery. Many of these assessments form the operating models used to simulation-test candidate management procedures. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the assessments of 11 of the most important fisheries resources in South Africa. Some assessments use simple biomass dynamics models, whereas others are a hybrid of age- and length-based models, each designed to model the specific characteristics of the resource and fishery concerned. Many of the assessments have been disaggregated by species/stock and/or area as related multispecies/stock/ distribution hypotheses have arisen. This paper explores the similarities and differences in the data available and the methods applied. The review indicates that, whereas the status of three of these resources cannot be estimated reliably at present, the status of six resources is considered to be reasonable to good, whereas that of abalone Haliotis midae and West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii remains poor.