Probabilistic assessment of annual repair rates in pipelines and of direct economic losses in water and sewage networks: application to Manizales,Colombia

A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city.     

Damaging flood severity assessment in Northern Portugal over more than 150 years (1865–2016)

Floods are a major natural hazard, with vast implications over a wide range of socio-economic activities. A harmonized post-flood classification is critical for a better understanding of this hazard, by providing homogeneous flood catalogues for future research on triggering mechanisms. We apply a flood severity index (FSI) to damaging floods in Northern Portugal over a 152-year period (1865–2016) and identify the most critical areas to flood occurrences. The index is a damage-based post-event assessment tool, which includes five categories ranging from minor flooding (1) to catastrophic flooding (5). FSI is applied to a historical damaging flood database with 2318 occurrences. In Northern Portugal, serious floods (3) are the most frequent typology, while catastrophic floods are typically river floods occurring in the Douro basin. Overall, damaging flood occurrences are favoured by the positive phase of the East Atlantic pattern and by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, the north-western areas reveal higher concentrations of damaging flood occurrences, mainly due to higher population density, higher precipitation values and more flood plain areas. In particular, 48% of all occurrences are concentrated in the Porto Metropolitan Area, mainly the Porto city centre and nearby riverside areas of the Douro River. High-population density and heavily urbanized areas lead to greater exposure to flood risk, whereas the most peripheral municipalities, with large agricultural/forested areas, show much lower numbers of damaging floods. FSI is tool to communicate the magnitude of the flood risk and is, therefore, of foremost relevance to civil protection and risk management.     

Slip distribution and source parameters of the 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos earthquake (Mw6.6) from GPS observations

Greek-Turkish boundary near the cities Kos and Bodrum has been shaken on July 20, 2017 by a Mw6.6 earthquake. The mainshock is located offshore and did not generate an on-land surface rupture. Analyzing pre- and post-earthquake continuous/survey-type static GPS observations, we investigated co-seismic surface displacements at 20 sites to characterize source parameters and slip-distribution of the mainshock. Fault plane solutions as well as co-seismic slip distribution have been acquired through the inversion of co-seismic GPS displacements modeling the event as elastic dislocations in a half space. Fault plane solution shows a southward dipping normal-type fault segment extending a depth down to ~12 km, which remains within the brittle upper crust. Results from the distributed slip inversion show that the mainshock activated a ~65 km fault section, which has three high slip patches, namely western, central and eastern patches, where the coseismic slips reach up to 13, 26, and 5 cm, respectively. This slip pattern indicates that the pre-earthquake coupling, which is storing the slip deficit, occurred on these three patches.     

Magmatic source and metamorphic grade of metavolcanic rocks from the Granjeno Schist: was northeastern Mexico a part of Pangaea?

The geochemistry of the metavolcanic rocks from the Granjeno Schist in northeastern Mexico indicates an origin in different tectonic environments: mid‐ocean ridge and ocean island. High ratios of Hf/Th and Th/Nb (4.4–14 and 0.08–0.15), low ratios of LaN/YbN and LaN/SmN (0.74–1.7 and 0.60–1.4) and depleted LREE patterns in metabasalt display mid‐ocean ridge characteristics. In contrast, the pattern of trace‐element ratios and REEs in metabasalt and metapillow lava 60 km to the west indicates a magma source with ocean‐island basalt characteristics. Both areas were metamorphosed during the Late Carboniferous (300 ± 4 Ma). Estimated metamorphic conditions deduced from white mica and chlorite compositions, distinguish greenschist facies (350 °C and 4 kbar) for the mid‐ocean ridge basalt, and prehnite–pumpellyite facies (250 °C and 2.5 kbar) for the ocean‐island‐type basalt. This metamorphism took place at an active continental margin during Pennsylvanian time. Our new tectonic model, which differs from earlier models, suggests that the origin of the Granjeno Schist is related to a subduction zone located at the western margin of Pangaea, active after Laurentia–Gondwana collision. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Local and temporal variations in near‐shore macrobenthic communities associated with submarine groundwater discharges

The influence of submarine groundwater discharges (SGD) on the dynamics of coastal ecosystems is receiving increasing scientific attention, although our knowledge of this issue still remains insufficient. Understanding the ecological response of coastal ecosystems to SGD dynamics is important in order to evaluate and predict changes in coastal communities. The aim of the present study was to characterize the effect of groundwater discharge on subtidal soft‐bottom macrofaunal assemblages in the south coast of Portugal (Algarve) at different times of the year and under different discharge regimes. Sediment macrofauna was sampled twice per season in spring and summer 2011 in two locations: one under influence of SGD (Olhos de Água) and one not under that influence (Arrifes). The results showed that differences in community structure between locations occurred mainly during spring, when the magnitude of groundwater discharge was higher. Several individual taxa were strongly associated with the SGD, particularly during spring: the polychaete families Magelonidae and Oweniidae; the isopod Cyathura carinata; and the bivalves Tellimya ferruginosa and Tellina fabula. Some of these taxa are already considered indicators of SGD, whereas others merit further investigation. The average similarity among samples was consistently larger in the location with SGD and the average similarity between the two locations was generally higher during spring, indicating that SGD promote stability in macrobenthic communities across time and space. SGD were also associated with higher values of Chlorophyll a (Chl a), fine sediments and total abundance of organisms (particularly suspension feeders). This suggests that differences between locations are associated with SGD and mediated by nutrient fluxes and sediment transport, or their interaction.     

New Hamiltonian expansions adapted to the Trojan problem

A number of studies, referring to the observed Trojan asteroids of various planets in our Solar System, or to hypothetical Trojan bodies in extrasolar planetary systems, have emphasized the importance of so-called secondary resonances in the problem of the long term stability of Trojan motions. Such resonances describe commensurabilities between the fast, synodic, and secular frequency of the Trojan body, and, possibly, additional slow frequencies produced by more than one perturbing bodies. The presence of secondary resonances sculpts the dynamical structure of the phase space. Hence, identifying their location is a relevant task for theoretical studies. In the present paper we combine the methods introduced in two recent papers (Páez and Efthymiopoulos in Celest Mech Dyn Astron 121(2):139, 2015; Páez and Locatelli in MNRAS 453(2):2177, 2015) in order to analytically predict the location of secondary resonances in the Trojan problem. In Páez and Efthymiopoulos (2015), the motion of a Trojan body was studied in the context of the planar Elliptic Restricted Three Body or the planar Restricted Multi-Planet Problem. It was shown that the Hamiltonian admits a generic decomposition \(H=H_b+H_{sec}\). The term \(H_b\), called the basic Hamiltonian, is a model of two degrees of freedom characterizing the short-period and synodic motions of a Trojan body. Also, it yields a constant ‘proper eccentricity’ allowing to define a third secular frequency connected to the body’s perihelion precession. \(H_{sec}\) contains all remaining secular perturbations due to the primary or to additional perturbing bodies. Here, we first investigate up to what extent the decomposition \(H=H_b+H_{sec}\) provides a meaningful model. To this end, we produce numerical examples of surfaces of section under \(H_b\) and compare with those of the full model. We also discuss how secular perturbations alter the dynamics under \(H_b\). Secondly, we explore the normal form approach introduced in Páez and Locatelli (2015) in order to find an ‘averaged over the fast angle’ model derived from \(H_b\), circumventing the problem of the series’ limited convergence due to the collision singularity at the 1:1 MMR. Finally, using this averaged model, we compute semi-analytically the position of the most important secondary resonances and compare the results with those found by numerical stability maps in specific examples. We find a very good agreement between semi-analytical and numerical results in a domain whose border coincides with the transition to large-scale chaotic Trojan motions.     

Gully-head morphology and implications for gully development on abandoned fields in a semi-arid environment,Sierra de Gata,southeast Spain

In this paper we examine whether gully-head morphology can be used as an indicator for gully development and, hence, for sediment production. A survey was conducted at five hillslopes in the Sierra de Gata where different types of channel heads occur close to each other. The survey included measurements of morphologic and pedologic properties, ground surface, channel and catchment characteristics of every gully head present (n = 59). On the basis of the observed morphologies, the heads were subdivided into four types: gradual, transitional (a short inclined section), abrupt and rilled-abrupt. The analyses showed that it is possible to explain the differences of gully heads and the role of some environmental factors on the basis of their morphologies, at least for the gradual and the abrupt types. The results suggested that steep headcuts (abrupt) were formed from secondary headcuts in the channel, which migrated upstream. The abrupt headcuts were always formed in more than one soil layer of which one was a resistant (stony) layer. However, shear strength measurements (at saturation) showed that the top layer was not always the most resistant one. Width–depth relationships indicated that gradual type headcuts were controlled by fluvial processes and abrupt headcuts by a combination of fluvial and mass-wasting processes. Gradual types occurred more downslope than the abrupt types suggesting that the incisions started by fluvial processes and migrated upwards when knickpoints developed in the channel. The rilled-abrupt types are still actively retreating. Thus, the abrupt types correspond to slower retreat rates. Abrupt gully heads may deteriorate into transitional types when plunge-pool erosion becomes less effective. The conceptual model is supported by data from ephemeral gullies in two other study areas (Sierra de la Torrecilla, Spain, and Alentejo, Portugal). Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.