Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Image-aided platform orientation determination with a GNSS/low-cost IMU system using robust-adaptive Kalman filter

The availability of miniaturized sensors with enhanced capabilities, new methods for image processing, and easy access to small and low-weight airborne platforms for data acquisition, including unmanned vehicles, opens new possibilities for geodetic navigation applications and developing new developments in sensor fusion. In this context, the development of efficient methods, based on low-cost sensors, to extract precise georeferenced information from digital cameras is of utmost interest. We present a method to improve the performance of the integration of GNSS/low-cost IMU by exploiting the orientation changes retrieved from digital images. In this work, a robust-adaptive Kalman filter is also introduced to further improve the performance of the method deployed. The adaptive factor and the robust factor accomplished are determined by innovation information and the threshold value of orientation changes between consecutive images. Results from airborne tests used to assess the performance of the method are presented. The results show that using a non-metric camera, the Euler angle estimation accuracy of the GNSS/low-cost IMU integration can be improved to be close to 0.5 degree and an additional improvement, which can reach 59%, can be achieved after using the robust-adaptive Kalman filter.     

Coastal erosion risk assessment to discuss mitigation strategies: Barra-Vagueira,Portugal

Natural Hazards - Worldwide coastal zones present serious erosion problems that cause loss of territory. This phenomenon exposes people and goods to the threat, being necessary to carry out a...     

The Colider and Roosevelt Volcanic rocks (sw amazonian craton): geochemistry and sm-nd isotope characteristics of a silicic large igneous province

The volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations are extensively exposed in the south-central portion of the Amazonian Craton where effusive and pyroclastic rocks have been mapped. Both units, topped by chemical sediments and oceanic facies as rhyolite and andesite lavas, rhyodacite, and porphyritic dacite, with frequent intercalations of pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits. Whole-rock geochemistry for 55 samples of rhyolitic to andesitic composition suggests the involvement of fertile mantle-derived components with E-MORB to OIB compositions. The analyzed rocks display calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinity consistent with generation related to an active continental margin. The whole-rock Sm-Nd isotope data from selected felsic volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations yield negative initial ε_Nd values between –3 and –9, indicating the predominantly crustal nature of the parental magmas with early Archean to late Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2.5–2.0 Ga) depleted mantle model ages.

     

Single-particle crushing strength under different relative humidity conditions

This paper presents a fundamental study on the effect of the relative humidity on the rockfill crushing strength. This aspect plays an important role in the mechanical behaviour of rockfill, and it is known that certain characteristics of the granular materials, such as compressibility and shear strength, depend on the confining stress, which is a function of the particles crushing. An increased interest has been observed regarding the effect of the relative humidity in the mechanical behaviour of rockfill. Unfortunately, limited research has been conducted until now regarding the study of individual particle crushing. Therefore, this paper thoroughly investigated particle crushing, by performing single-particle crushing tests on rockfill particles divided into four size ranges, under different relative humidity conditions. The experimental results reveal a considerable influence of the relative humidity in the studied rockfill particles, whose strength of the particles with the greatest dimensions in saturated conditions was reduced by half. Consistent macro-mechanical evidence demonstrates that particle’s size and relative humidity conditions depict the most important factors that influence particle crushing strength.

     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

Effect of crab size and habitat type on the locomotory activity of juvenile shore crabs, Carcinus maenas

Post-settlement processes are a major focus in the study of the dynamics of marine populations and communities. Post-settlement movement of juveniles is an important, but often ignored, process which affects local predator–prey and competitive interactions. We used benthic suction sampling and pitfall traps to examine density and locomotory activity of Carcinus maenas juveniles in different intertidal habitat types in the Rio Mira Estuary, Portugal, to better understand intra-specific interactions in a system where density-dependent processes are known to regulate population dynamics. As expected, significantly higher densities of juvenile shore crabs were found from bare mud compared to densely vegetated habitats. At the time of sampling, small and intermediate stages together outnumbered by far the larger juveniles. Conversely, larger crabs were much more frequent than smaller ones in traps. A locomotory index (LI), i.e. the ratio between crab catch in pitfall traps and their density within their moving range, is proposed as a measure of movement. LI analyses indicated that: (1) movement is an order of magnitude higher in large than small juveniles and much higher in sparse than dense vegetation cover; (2) activity of small juveniles is mostly crepuscular, regardless of vegetation cover; and (3) movement of large juveniles is very limited in dense Zostera patches, but very high in sparsely vegetated areas, during the day and night. These results suggest that small juveniles are relatively protected under dense vegetation cover due to lower mobility of larger crabs, and provide evidence of temporal segregation of activity windows between juvenile crabs of different sizes, which may be a key mechanism to reduce cannibalism and therefore increase the carrying capacity of nursery habitats.     

The role of basement inheritance faults in the recent fracture system of the inner shelf around Alboran Island,Western Mediterranean

Fractures associated with volcanic rock outcrops on the inner shelf of Alboran Island, Western Mediterranean, were mapped on the basis of a side-scan sonar mosaic. Absolute maximum fracture orientation frequency is NW–SE to NNW–SSE, with several sub-maxima oriented NNE–SSW, NE–SW and ENE–WSW. The origin of the main fracture systems in Neogene and Quaternary rocks of the Alboran Basin (south Spain) appears to be controlled by older structures, namely NE–SW and WNW–ESE to NW–SE faults which cross-cut the basement. These faults, pre-Tortonian in origin, have been reactivated since the early Neogene in the form of strike-slip and extensional movements linked to the recent stress field in this area. Fracture analysis of volcanic outcrops on the inner continental shelf of Alboran Island suggests that the shelf has been deformed into a narrow shear zone limited by two NE–SW-trending, sub-parallel high-angle faults, the main orientation and density of which have been influenced by previous WNW–ESE to NW–SE basement fractures.     

The profitability of the artisanal galician fleet

A large artisanal fleet made up of small-sized vessels fishes along the Galician coastline using passive gear and traps. The aim of this study is to analyse the economic profitability of this fleet in the last 5 years by looking at the average rate of return on the vessel and the investment payback period. The results show a slight drop in the return per vessel half-way through the period studied caused by the effects of the Prestige oil spill, to quickly recover over the following 2 years. Considerably high profitability rates from fishing activity were observed, especially in the second half of the period, and slightly lower payback periods, in general, than the average life of a standard fleet vessel.     

44 years hindcast of sea level in the Atlantic Coast of Europe

The sea level of Northeast Atlantic Ocean is calculated for the period between 1958 and 2001 using a state-of-the-art barotropic model with a grid size of 10′ × 15′ (long × lat). The model includes astronomic effects, considering seven components of the tide, and the meteorological effects of wind and atmospheric pressure, allowing obtaining the astronomic tide, the atmospheric residuals and the non-linear addition of both components of sea level.