Impact of Three-Parameter Weibull Models in Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards

This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north–east India and its surrounding region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance–covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.     

Difference of mercury bioaccumulation in red mullets from the north-western Mediterranean and Black seas

The relationships between total mercury (Hg) concentration and stable nitrogen isotope ratio (δ¹⁵N) were evaluated in Mullus barbatus barbatus and M. surmuletus from the Mediterranean Sea and M. barbatus ponticus from the Black Sea. Mercury concentration in fish muscle was six times higher in the two Mediterranean species than in the Black Sea one for similar sized animals. A positive correlation between Hg concentration and δ¹⁵N occurred in all species. Increase in Hg concentration with δ¹⁵N was high and similar in the two Mediterranean fishes and much lower in the Black Sea species. Since this was neither related to trophic level difference between species nor to methylmercury (MeHg) concentration differences between the north-western Mediterranean and the Black Sea waters, we suggested that the higher primary production of the Black Sea induced a dilution of MeHg concentration at the base of the food webs.     

中国大陆及邻区大尺度浅源强震空间分布的不均匀性和板块耦合的力学机制

对近代中国大陆及其邻区板内浅源强震空间分布的大尺度不均匀性进行研究，得出：（１）该区存在４个主要的高地震活动区，即华北地震区（３０°～４２°Ｎ）、东南沿海地震区（１９°～２５°Ｎ）、南北地震区（缅甸—中国—蒙古）和中亚地震区（帕米尔—天山—贝加尔湖）；（２）这４个地震区与该区周围板块（欧亚板块与北美—太平洋—菲律宾海—印度板块）之间边界上地震耦合强度大的段落大致垂直；（３）作用于板块边界不同段落上的应力水平差异，可能是中国大陆及其邻区板内近代大尺度强震活动空间分布不均匀性的控制因素     

Distribution of the indigenous microorganisms and mechanisms of their orientational activation in Daqing Oilfield

The distribution of indigenous microorganisms was surveyed in Block 1 of Daqing Oilfield. Based on this survey, the indigenous microorganisms in the formation water were activated with different activator systems at the simulated stratum ecological environment. The changes of the number of bacteria of various physiological groups were determined during the process of activation. Also changes of pH value and composition of gas productions were analyzed at the end of culturing. The results showed that the selected block formation water contained a great number of saprophytic bacteria, hydrocarbon-oxidizing bacteria, fermentative bacteria, methane-producing bacteria and sulfate-reducing bacteria. Under the conditions that the growth of sulfate-reducing bacteria was controlled the block had the potential to enhance oil recovery by activating beneficial bacteria. The growth of sulfate-reducing bacteria can be inhibited through the activation of nitrate-reducing bacteria. The number of nitrate-reducing bacteria reached 10⁶–10⁷ cells/mL, but sulfate-reducing bacteria reached only 0–45 cells/mL in A system. Methane-producing bacteria can be activated by C, D activators. The relative content of biological methane in the light hydrocarbon gas reached 80% in C, D systems. B activator was conducive to the propagation of acid-producing bacteria, so that the pH value of the culture medium decreased from 7.5 to around 5.0. Hydrocarbon-oxidizing bacteria can be activated by various activator systems. There was low molecular light hydrocarbon in gas production according to the analysis of gas chromatograph. According to the content of methane and the number of methane-producing bacteria, methane only can be generated through activating methane-producing bacteria. By choosing different activator systems, various populations of indigenous microorganisms can be activated accordingly.     

Adsorption of Au(III) and Au(I) complexes on δ-MnO2

The sorption of AuCl₄ ⁻,AuCl₂ ⁻ and Au(S₂O₃)^3- on δ-MnO₂ was investigated at pH2–11.6, 0.01 mol/L and 0.1 mol/L NaNO₃ solutions. At pH 4 in two electrolyte strength solutions, Au sorption densities on δ-MnO₂ are 0.18–0.21 and 0.28μmoL/m² for AuCl₄ ⁻ and Au(S₂O₃)₂ ^3-, respectively, and the Au surface coverage is approximate to or lower than 1%. This adsorption of the two Au complexes decreases as the solution pH increases, which conforms to the sorption regularity of the anion on δ-MnO₂. The Au sorption decreases in the sequence of Au(S₂O₃)₂ ^3- >AuCl₄ ⁻ >AuC1₂ ⁻. The intrinsic equilibrium constants (logK ^int) of the three Au complexes are 1.17–2.7, much higher than those of Cu and Cd. The hydrolysis products of AuCl₄ ^- are preferentially adsorbed by δ-MnO₂ and the inner-sphere Au-surface complexes are formed on the surface. Project supported by the National Studying-abroad Foundation, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49573200) and the Australian Mining Industry.     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840

Three tree-ring rainfall reconstructions from China and Korea are used in this paper to investigate the East Asian summer monsoon-related precipitation variation over the past 160 years. Statistically, there is no linear correlation on a year-by-year basis between Chinese and Korean monsoon rainfall, but region-wide synchronous variation on a decadal-scale was observed. More rainfall intervals were 1860–1890, 1910–1925, and 1940–1960, and dry or even drought periods were 1890–1910, 1925–1940, and 1960–present. Reconstructions also display that the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation suddenly changed from more into less around mid-1920. These tree-ring precipitation records were also confirmed by Chinese historical dryness/wetness index and Korean historical rain gauge data.     

Sea-level changes and hydrothermal sedimentary mineralization of large-superlarge ore deposits among Sinian to Triassic in South China

Among the Sinian to Triassic strata in South China, the stratiform, quasi-stratiform and lenticular metallic deposits in association with hydrothermal sedimentation mainly occur in the four periods: (1) the Sinian Datangpo interglacial period, (2) the early period of Early Cambrian, (3) the late period of Middle Devonian to early period of Late Devonian, and (4) the late period of Early Permian. The four mineralization periods all happened around the maximum flooding period in the third-order seal-level cycle during the ascending stage in the first-order sea-level cycle. The deep seawater layer, starved and non-compensatory basin, low sedimentary rate, and low energy and anoxic environment during the maximum flooding period are very suitable for the formation and preservation of large to superlarge hydrothermal sedimentary deposits. The maximum flooding period also coincided with the intensified regional tectonism, extensive deep magmatism and hydrothermal sedimentation, which provide, for the formation of large to superlarge hydrothermal sedimentary deposits through the rapid accumulation of hydrothermal sediments, the needed dynamics, ore-forming materials and favorable passway for hydrothermal fluids to enter the basin.     

Studies on seismic waves

The development of seismic wave study in China in the past four years is reviewed. The discussion is divided into several aspects, including seismic wave propagation in laterally homogeneous media, laterally heterogeneous media, anisotropic and porous media, surface wave and seismic wave inversion, and seismic wave study in prospecting and logging problems. Important projects in the current studies on seismic wave is suggested as the development of high efficient numerical methods, and applying them to the studies of excitation and propagation of seismic waves in complex media and strong ground motion, which will form a foundation for refined earthquake hazard analysis and prediction.     

Basic characteristics of active tectonics of China

Active tectonics is inferred to all the structures which have been active since the late Pleisto-cene, 100—120 ka B.P., are still active recently, and will be active in a certain time period in the future, such as active faults, active folds, active basi…