地质灾害预警预报模型设计与应用

基于地质灾害的多样性及其变化的随机性和非稳定性特点,本文综合利用数学算法和GIS技术,设计了地质灾害预警模型,分析了诱发地质灾害的地形、地貌、气象、水文等几方面的因素,并根据这些因素的特点,选取不同的样本对其进行量化处理,运用主成分分析法,计算了各个因素导致地质灾害发生的权重指数及各监测站点的易发级别。在此基础上,基于GIS技术、采用泰森多边形法等将站点的易发级别转换成面的易发级别,运用日降雨量、降雨强度等指标计算出地质灾害发生的概率,通过区域化易发等级图与降雨图的叠加分析,采用地质气象偶合方法,实现了地质灾害预测。在某省案例区的研究表明,本研究设计的地质灾害预警模型具有较高的预警精度(预警结果80%符合实际情况)。     

生态系统恢复力研究进展综述

气候变化和人类活动等致使全球生态系统发生了巨大变化,导致区域乃至全球生态系统恢复力不断下降, 成为胁迫生态系统可持续发展能力因素之一。如何维持生态系统的可持续发展能力,降低不确定性因素导致的问题已引起学术界及社会各界的高度重视。生态系统恢复力理论为解决这些问题提供了思路,生态系统恢复力提供了缓解生态系统状态转化的途径。虽然恢复力这一概念的管理价值已被接受和认可,但恢复力研究仍停留在概念层面及案例分析的模式上。目前生态系统恢复力研究尚缺乏科学统一的定义,且多为理论性分析而定量测度相对较少,生态系统恢复力的测定成为进一步探讨恢复力的重要步骤和切入点。本文通过回顾生态系统恢复力概念发展进程,概述关于恢复力概念的观点和恢复力的内涵与属性,描述目前恢复力的主要理论基础,论述目前研究者对恢复力测量的尝试;总结了相关研究中发现的影响生态系统恢复力的关键因素及其影响机制,进而提出了目前生态系统恢复力研究方面亟待加大研究力度的方向。     

Factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province

This article explores the factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion at regional level by developing and using an econometric approach which is called the simultaneous equations model (SEM). A case study in Jiangxi Province of China is conducted by establishing the SEM, which consists of three equations including agricultural production, land conversion of cultivated land to built-up area and land conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland from 1988 to 2005. And then this paper employs the method of piecewise estimation to represent the influences of the factors such as population, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions on the process of land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province. Estimation results show that population is a predominant factor driving the land-use conversion at counties, while social and economic factors are determinant factors in the short term for the entire Jiangxi Province. Specifically, the size of agricultural population and the magnitude of agricultural input determine the agricultural production to a large extent; population size, plain area proportion at counties and land management policies together affect the direction and magnitude of conversion between cultivated land and built-up area; agricultural population proportion, terrain slope, grain production and non-agricultural industry promote the conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland. Furthermore, the explored mechanism also reveals the underlying causes of the land use changes driven by a series of factors in Jiangxi Province. Finally, this paper concludes that factors proven to play an important role in driving the land-use conversion need to be considered when the land management agencies make out the land use planning to optimize the land use, expand the agricultural production, and conserve the cultivated land.     

基于分形理论的地裂缝成因机制研究.

依据分形理论分析了清徐境内交城断裂带、地裂缝以及地貌的分形结构特征.同时根据分析结果讨论了地裂缝、断裂以及地貌之间的内在联系,并对清徐地裂缝的成因机制进行了研究.     

鹿邑县气象条件对夏玉米优质高产的影响及对策

对河南省鹿邑县1998-2007年夏玉米观测资料和同期气象观测资料分析结果表明,影响本地夏玉米优质高产的主要因素是干旱和内涝.为充分利用气候资源,提高夏玉米产量和品质,应选用中早熟竖叶型品种,适时早播;加强田间管理,满足夏玉米生长需要;适时晚收,防止人为减产.     

数值模拟在地震小区划滑坡灾害评价中的应用

工程场地地震安全性评价、特别是在地震小区划工作中,对地震滑坡的评价通常采用定性分析方法,因此,对其影响范围未给出定量的评价结果。本文以吕梁新城地震小区划滑坡评价为例,通过对该区的地质条件、地貌特征的研究,针对具有典型特征的剖面,选取地震力、内聚力、摩擦角作为影响因子,采用离散单元法(DEM)对潜在滑坡体的稳定性进行了数值模拟计算,得到了可能失稳的滑坡体潜在滑动的影响范围。并在此基础上通过对已知滑坡与潜在滑坡剖面结构特征的类比,对整个研究区内滑坡体的影响范围进行了评价。研究结果可为吕梁新城的规划提供依据,也可为同类工程中地震滑坡灾害的定量评价提供参考。     

Marginal revenue of land and total factor productivity in Chinese agriculture: Evidence from spatial analysis

This paper attempts to explore the temporal and spatial nature of the marginal revenue of land, total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC) as seen in Chinese agricultural production from 1995 to 1999. Based on county-level data, the study utilized both stochastic frontier and mapping analyses methods. The results show that growth in the marginal revenue of land was diverse across various regions, where most gain occurred in eastern coastal zone, while loss was in Northwest and North China. China has experienced moderate decreases in annual TFP change (-0.26%) with considerable regional variations. Specifically, the administrative intervention in grain production and the deterioration of the agricultural technology diffusion system led to a moderate drop in annual TFP change. County-level mapping analyses took into account interregional variances in TFP and its components. Regarding components of TFP, TEC differences explain the majority of regional dispersions in TFP. As developed areas in China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan economic zone face the challenges of land conversion and grain security amidst the process of urbanization.     

海南东方震群的前兆异常及序列特征

系统地分析了总结了海南东方震群的前兆异常和序列特征，以为海南今后的地震预报提供参考。     

东南极大陆腹地首次发现新生代沉积岩

首次在东南极腹地格罗夫(Grove)山地区的现代冰碛物中发现了由新生代沉积岩(物)构成的冰碛砾石,它们反映了南极冰盖曾经消融退缩到该地区。本文对这些沉积岩(物)的宏观特征进行初步报道,并简要探讨它们所反映的南极冰川的消融演化历史。     

2003年4月江西一次强对流天气过程的诊断分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、TBB资料、探空资料及多普勒雷达资料等对2003年4月12日发生在江西以及福建北部的强对流天气过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明:此次强对流天气过程是在高空槽和低层低涡切变线的有利形势下产生的, 这种下层暖湿、上层干冷的对流不稳定层结非常有利于强对流天气的产生; 强对流天气发生发展伴有多个中尺度对流云团东移南压的演变过程; 多普勒雷达资料分析表明, 冰雹发生时可观测到79 dBz的反射率因子极值并伴有弓状回波; 对流有效位能积累、释放随时间的演变过程, 对于此次强对流天气过程有很好的指示意义; 强对流天气发生前高层的干冷空气倾斜状向下侵入到对流层中低层附近, 对此次强对流天气的发生发展起了非常重要的作用; 能量锋区及锋区上强的垂直涡柱为该次强对流天气过程提供了有利的热力和动力学条件。