Simulations of two types of El Niño events by an optimal forcing vector approach

In this paper, an optimal forcing vector (OFV) approach is proposed. The OFV offsets tendency errors and optimizes the agreement of the model simulation with observation. We apply the OFV approach to the well-known Zebiak–Cane model and simulate several observed eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events during 1980–2004. It is found that the Zebiak–Cane model with a proper initial condition often reproduces the EP-El Niño events; however, the Zebiak–Cane model fails to reproduce the CP-El Niño events. The model may be much more influenced by model errors when simulating the CP-El Nino events. As expected, when we use the OFV to correct the Zebiak–Cane model, the model reproduces the three CP-El Niño events well. Furthermore, the simulations of the corresponding winds and thermocline depths are also acceptable. In particular, the thermocline depth simulations for the three CP-El Niño events lead us to believe that the discharge process of the equatorial heat content associated with the CP-El Niño is not efficient and emphasizes the role of the zonal advection in the development of the CP-El Nino events. The OFVs associated with the three CP-El Niño events often exhibit a sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) tendency with positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific; therefore, the SST tendency errors occurring in the equatorial eastern Pacific may dominate the uncertainties of the Zebiak–Cane model while simulating CP-El Nino events. A further investigation demonstrates that one of the model errors offset by the OFVs is of a pattern similar to the SST cold-tongue cooling mode, which may then provide one of the climatological conditions for the frequent occurrence of CP-El Nino events. The OFV may therefore be a useful tool for correcting forecast models and then for helping improve the forecast skill of the models.     

Relationship Between Fine-Particle Pollution and the Urban Heat Island in Beijing,China: Observational Evidence

Urbanization has led to a significant urban heat island (UHI) effect in Beijing in recent years. At the same time, air pollution caused by a large number of fine particles significantly influences the atmospheric environment, urban climate, and human health. The distribution of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration and its relationship with the UHI effect in the Beijing area are analyzed based on station-observed hourly data from 2012 to 2016. We conclude that, (1) in the last five years, the surface concentrations of PM_2.5 averaged for urban and rural sites in and around Beijing are 63.2 and 40.7 µg m^?3, respectively, with significant differences between urban and rural sites (ΔPM_2.5) at the seasonal, monthly and daily scales observed; (2) there is a large correlation between ΔPM_2.5 and the UHI intensity defined as the differences in the mean (ΔT_ave), minimum (ΔT_min), and maximum (ΔT_max) temperatures between urban and rural sites. The correlation between ΔPM_2.5 and ΔT_min (ΔT_max) is the highest (lowest); (3) a Granger causality analysis further shows that ΔPM_2.5 and ΔT_min are most correlated for a lag of 1–2 days, while the correlation between ΔPM_2.5 and ΔT_ave is lower; there is no causal relationship between ΔPM_2.5 and ΔT_max; (4) a case analysis shows that downwards shortwave radiation at the surface decreases with an increase in PM_2.5 concentration, leading to a weaker UHI intensity during the daytime. During the night, the outgoing longwave radiation from the surface decreases due to the presence of daytime pollutants, the net effect of which is a slower cooling rate during the night in cities than in the suburbs, leading to a larger ΔT_min.     

全球、中国及云南近百年气温变化的层次结构和突变特征

用文献［１］建立的自适应多分辨数据波滤器进行了全球、中国及云南近百年气温变化的层次结构和突变特征分析。结果表明：（１）全球近百年来的气温变化对于较大时间尺度的演化来说主要特征是变暖,并为３个层次：即１９１９年以前的偏冷期;１９２０－１９７８年偏暖期和１９７９年以后的更暖期。对应于这种较大时间尺度的层次演变,全球的气温变化表现出十分明显的突变特征,两上最明显增暖的突变点分别发生在１９２０年和１９７９     

中国淡水资源现状及农业滴灌水分入渗的研究

中国人均占有水资源量2200m3,仅为世界平均人均占有量的31%,被列为世界13个人均水资源贫乏的国家之一。中国农业是用水大户,灌溉方式比较落后,浪费现象十分严重。如何合理高效地利用有限的水资源,在农业灌水方式、灌溉制度上进行大的变革,此项研究意义深远。本文进行了探索性的实验,提出了新的灌水模式,以期用较少的水取得较高的产出效益。     

陆相湖盆深水重力流混合事件层沉积及沉积学意义

重力流混合事件层在陆相湖盆广泛发育,其形成和分布对理解重力流沉积演化过程及重力流沉积常规与非常规油气勘探开发意义重大。以涠西南凹陷流沙港组一段和鄂尔多斯盆地延长组7段重力流沉积为研究对象,分析湖盆重力流混合事件层的沉积特征、类型、成因及沉积模式,并进一步探讨其地质意义。湖盆主要发育滑动、滑塌重力驱动块体搬运沉积和砂质碎屑流、泥质碎屑流、高密度浊流和低密度浊流等重力流流体沉积,同时广泛发育重力流混合事件层沉积。湖盆重力流混合事件层包含多层结构、双层结构和频繁互层三种大的类型;其中,双层结构的重力流混合事件层进一步根据上下两个沉积单元厚度的差异可细分为两个亚类。多层结构的混合事件层主要为流体侵蚀或砂体液化成因,多发育于混合事件层沉积近端;双层结构与频繁互层结构的混合事件层主要为流体减速膨胀、泥质碎屑流中碎屑颗粒的差异沉降成因,多发育于混合事件层沉积远端。相同沉积单元组成的沉积层在垂向上的规律叠置是岩芯中识别重力流混合事件层沉积的可靠依据;在未明确其沉积过程的情况下可能会导致沉积信息的错误解读。同时,重力流混合事件层的发育会导致重力流沉积非均质性增强,不利于常规油气的储集;但是,重力流混合事...     

Variability in upper-ocean salinity stratification in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Using a gridded array for real-time geostrophic oceanography(Argo) program float dataset, the features of upperocean salinity stratification in the tropical Pacific Ocean are studied. The salinity component of the squared Brunt-V?is?l? frequency N²( N_S²) is used to represent salinity stratification. Layer-max N_S²(LMN), defined as the N_S² maximum over the upper 300 m depth, and halocline depth(HD), defined as the depth w...     

塔里木盆地南部中生代碰撞相关构造及其在古特提斯研究中的意义

地震资料解释和野外地质调查,在塔里木盆地南部发现中生代碰撞相关构造.同碰撞构造发育于西昆仑山前、阿尔金山前和麦盖提斜坡,为晚三叠世冲断构造.既有晚三叠世新形成的冲断构造,也有先存构造的复活(如车尔臣断裂).碰撞后构造见于西昆仑和阿尔金山前,是一些规模不大的侏罗纪—白垩纪正断层及其控制下形成堑—垒构造.晚三叠世构造应力场...     

The effect of three-dimensional variational data assimilation of QuikSCAT data on the numerical simulation of typhoon track and intensity

In this paper, the three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (3DVAR) in the mesoscalemod el version 5 (MM5) of the US Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research is used to study the effect of assimilating the sea-wind data from QuikSCAT on the prediction of typhoon track and intensity. The case of Typhoon Dujuan (2003) is first tested and the results show appreciable improvements. Twelve other cases in 2003 are then evaluated. The assimilation of the QuikSCAT data produces significant impacts on the structure of Dujuan in terms of the horizontal and vertical winds, sealevel pressure and temperature at the initial time. With the assimilation, the 24-h (48-h) track prediction of 11 (10) out of the 12 typhoons is improved. The 24-h (48-h) prediction of typhoon intensity is also improved in 10 (9) of the 12 cases. These experiments therefore demonstrate that assimilation of the QuikSCAT sea-wind data can increase the accuracy of typhoon track and intensity predictions through modification of the initial fields associated with the typhoon.     

用SA雷达产品对京西三次局地暴雨落区形成的精细分析

利用新一代Doppler雷达各种探测产品,对2006年6月底至7月上旬北京西郊香山、石景山、门头沟一带落区相同的三次局地暴雨和大暴雨过程,进行精细分析和研究.重点分析雷达探测产品对落区在同一地点形成的短时临近影响系统和指示意义.研究表明,发生在北京西郊山前、落区相同的三次局地暴雨和大暴雨,其雷达回波发展和演变形式各不相同.但三次过程强降雨前,近地面平原东南风和边界层偏西风的垂直风廓线结构在地形作用下对暴雨落区形成的影响是一致的:近乎与山脉垂直的平原近地面东南风长时间(6小时左右)维持,增加山前局地近地面温湿条件,并在北京西郊山脉阻挡下,形成山前近地面局地辐合和强迫抬升.山顶附近边界层的偏西风为近地面空气强迫抬升后在边界层的后卷辐散提供了有利条件.研究还显示,落区附近单体风暴、逆风区辐合带、中气旋等中小尺度回波系统的活动和发展,是暴雨落区形成的重要因素.     

洛阳市建筑物雷击风险评估系统的建立

依据防雷技术规范GB 50057-1994和GB 50343-2004等所提出的建筑物遭受雷击风险的种类和评估方法,结合洛阳市防雷业务的实际情况,建立了洛阳市建筑物雷击风险评估系统.系统建立在数字模型基础上,可实现计算机处理,输入相关资料后,可自动生成建筑物雷击风险评估报告.