长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用

介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。     

Surface temperature control in the North and tropical Pacific during the last glacial maximum

Based on coupled modelling evidence we argue that topographically-induced modifications of the large-scale atmospheric circulation during the last glacial maximum may have led to a reduction of the westerlies, and a slowdown of the Pacific subtropical gyre as well as to an intensification of the Pacific subtropical cell. These oceanic circulation changes generate an eastern North Pacific warming, an associated cooling in the Kuroshio area, as well as a cooling of the tropical oceans, respectively. The tropical cooling pattern resembles a permanent La Niña state which in turn forces atmospheric teleconnection patterns that lead to an enhancement of the subtropical warming by reduced latent and sensible cooling of the ocean. In addition, the radiative cooling due to atmospheric CO₂ and water vapor reductions imposes a cooling tendency in the tropics and subtropics, thereby intensifying the permanent La Niña conditions. The remote North Pacific response results in a warming tendency of the eastern North Pacific which may level off the effect of the local radiative cooling. Hence, a delicate balance between oceanic circulation changes, remotely induced atmospheric flux anomalies as well local radiative cooling is established which controls the tropical and North Pacific temperature anomalies during the last glacial maximum. Furthermore, we discuss how the aftermath of a Heinrich event may have affected glacial temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.     

Fluid evolution in the Rushan lode gold deposit of Jiaodong Peninsula, eastern China

The Rushan gold deposit in the Jiaodong Peninsula is currently the largest lode gold in China. Gold occurs mainly in pyrite- and polymetallic sulfide–quartz vein/veinlet stockworks. Fluid inclusions in the deposit are divided into three main types, namely CO₂–H₂O, H₂O–CO₂ ± CH₄ and aqueous ones. Microthermometric data show that the pre-gold fluids were CO₂-dominant (X_CO2 up to 0.53), and the total homogenization temperatures fall in the range of 298377 °C. These fluids, modified by fluid/wallrock reactions, gradually evolved into fluids with less CO₂ (X_CO2 = 0.010.19) in the main ore-forming stage, and the total homogenization temperatures range from 170 to 324 °C. Hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope data suggest that ore-forming fluids were mixture of magmatic and meteoritic origin. Co-occurrence of gold and sulfides implies that gold was most likely transported in the form of gold–sulfide complexes. The wide distribution of CO₂ inclusions means that the pH variation during gold transportation was controlled by CO₂ buffering.     

内蒙古孟恩陶勒盖银铅锌矿床白云母Ar-Ar年龄及其意义

文章采用Ar_Ar同位素测年法对孟恩陶勒盖银铅锌矿云英岩化阶段形成的白云母进行了测试 ,获得白云母坪年龄为 (179.0± 1.5 )Ma ,等时线年龄为 (182 .3± 3.8)Ma。这组数据近似地代表了该矿床的形成年龄 ,同时也显示该地区除已知的晚侏罗_早白垩世构造_岩浆_成矿作用外 ,还有一期重要的早侏罗_中侏罗世构造_岩浆_热液成矿事件 ,这也是到目前为止所获得的大兴安岭中南段热液矿床最老的成矿年龄     

安徽玉屏山金异常的地球化学快速追踪评价

对安徽玉屏山、梅家洼１：５万区域金异常,开展了以Ｈｇ测量圈定异常区的构造格架,以Ａｕ的野外快速分析方法追踪评价异常的工作。迅速查明了区内断裂构造布局,Ａｕ的浓集地段。经探槽工程揭露发现了Ａｕ的矿化体,证明Ａｕ,Ｈｇ野外方法配合评价金异常,寻找金矿的技术是有效的。     

Configuration analysis of deepwater S-lay pipeline

The safety of offshore pipeline has drawn a great deal of attention during deepwater installation due to the combined actions of high external pressure, axial tension, and bending moment. Meanwhile, the pipeline configuration has a remarkable effect on the structural behaviour of the tube. The special studies focus on the deepwater S-lay technique in the present paper. The stiffened catenary theory is applied to establish the static equilibrium governing differential equation of a pipe element, and the solution equations of the total pipeline configuration from a lay-barge over a stinger to the seabed are derived. The numerical iteration method for solving pipeline configuration is described in detail, and the corresponding program is developed to conduct the analysis of effects of various parameters such as laying water depth, pipe diameter, thickness of concrete weighted coating layer, stinger length, control strain, and axial tension on pipeline configuration. The results show that the laying water depth, the submerged weight of the pipe, and the axial tension are the critical factors influencing pipeline configuration. In addition, geometrical parameters of the stinger such as length, radius, and shape have an important effect on the pipe-laying capacity of the vessel. The validity of the program is further verified by means of a comparison with results obtained from the commercial finite element software OFFPIPE.     

岩石的流变性质与断层模型

本文以断层带的为形机制为主题，简要总结了与此相关的岩石流变性质的研究结果，讨论了已有的几个断层带模型，并就进一步应开展的研究课题提出了一些建议。     

桂中坳陷环江凹陷上古生界海相页岩储层孔隙结构和分形特征研究

通过有机地化分析、全岩X衍射矿物分析、甲烷等温吸附及低压氮气吸附实验,本文对桂中坳陷环江凹陷上古生界页岩样品的孔隙结构及分形特征进行了研究.结果表明:研究区页岩总有机碳含量(TOC)平均为2.40%,热成熟度(Ro)平均为2.65%,处于过成熟演化阶段.页岩主要的矿物组成为石英和黏土.页岩的比表面积平均为5.86 m2/g,孔容平均为0.014 9 mL/g,平均孔径为11.2 nm.页岩中发育大量的中孔,主要呈两端开口的圆筒形孔或四边开放的平行板状孔.页岩中TOC含量和石英含量越多,微-中孔越发育、比表面积和孔容越大,而平均孔径则变小.通过Frenkel-Halsey-Hill (FHH)模型和氮气吸附实验数据计算得到孔隙表面分形维数D1(平均为2.428 4)和孔隙结构分形维数D2(平均为2.622 2),对应的相对压力(P/P0)分别是0~ 0.45和0.45 ~ 0.99.分形维数D1、D2随着比表面积、孔容的增加而增加,而平均孔径随着前者的增加而减小.分形维数D1、D2、TOC含量、石英含量和甲烷吸附量之间呈现较好的正相关性,但随着黏土矿物含量的增多而减小.分形维数D1与Langmuir压力存在弱负相关性,分形维数D2随Langmuir压力增大有变大的趋势.桂中坳陷西北部页岩分形维数越大,孔隙结构越复杂,其对天然气的吸附和存储能力越强.     

基于非确定性分析法的顺层边坡抗震性研究

顺层岩质边坡的抗震性指标大部分都是非确定的,无法用固定阈值衡量。提出基于非确定性分析法的顺层边坡抗震性性能研究,将顺层岩质边坡看作若干个叠加的薄板;运用非确定性分析法计算各个薄板的动力安全系数和动力极限状态方程,并对顺层边坡动力极限状态方程进行求解,可得在地震作用力下顺层边坡动力可靠度指标与顺层边坡失效概率之间的关系;评估地震作用力下顺层边坡整体稳定性,同时综合考量顺岩边坡的最小平均安全系数以及平均失效概率,得出评估结果。实验结果显示,在地震作用力下,顺层边坡坡高、坡角、岩层倾角对顺岩边坡抗震性能影响显著,评估结果与实际结果一致。     

模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报研究

综合应用预报量自身时间序列的拓展,数值预报产品和模块化模糊神经网络方法,进行了一种新的数值预报产品释用预报研究。将这种新方法与常规的数值预报产品完全预报(PP)方法进行了对比试验。结果表明,这种模块化模糊神经网络数值预报产品释用预报方法比PP预报方法的预报精度显著提高。并且,通过对预报模型“过拟合”现象的研究发现,这种模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报模型具有很好的泛化性能。