Investigating the application of climate models in flood projection across the UK

Regional climate models (RCMs) have emerged as the preferred tool in hydrological impact assessment at the catchment scale. The direct application of RCM precipitation output is still not recommended; instead, a number of alternative methods have been proposed. One method that has been used is the change factor methodology, which typically uses changes to monthly mean or seasonal precipitation totals to develop change scenarios. However, such simplistic approaches are subject to significant caveats. In this paper, 18 RCMs covering the UK from the ENSEMBLES and UKCP09 projects are analysed across different catchments. The ensembles' ability in capturing monthly total and extreme precipitation is outlined to explore how the ability to make confident statements about future flood risk varies between different catchments. The suitability of applying simplistic change factor approaches in flood impact studies is also explored. We found that RCM ensembles do have some skill in simulating observed monthly precipitation; however, seasonal patterns of bias were evident across each of the catchments. Moreover, even apparently good simulations of extreme rainfall can mis‐estimate the magnitude of flood‐generating rainfall events in ways that would significantly affect flood risk management. For future changes in monthly mean precipitation, we observe the clear ‘drier summers/wetter winters’ signal used to develop current UK policy, but when we look instead at flood‐generating rainfall, this seasonal signal is less clear and greater increases are projected. Furthermore, the confidence associated with future projections varies from catchment to catchment and season to season as a result of the varying ability of the RCM ensembles, and in some cases, future flood risk projections using RCM outputs may be highly problematic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater modelling with limited data sets: the Chari–Logone area (Lake Chad Basin,Chad)

One of the most important issues for water resource management is developing strategies for groundwater modelling that are adaptable to data scarcity. These strategies are particularly important in arid and semi‐arid areas where access to data is poor and data collection is difficult, such as the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. In the present study, we establish a numerical groundwater flow model and evaluate the effects of dry and wet periods on groundwater recharge in the Chari–Logone area (96 000 km²) of the Lake Chad Basin. Boundary conditions, flow direction, sources, and sinks for the Chari–Logone local model were obtained by revising and remodelling the Lake Chad Basin regional hydrogeological model (508 400 km²) developed by the BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) in the 1990s. The simulated aquifer water level showed good agreement with observed levels. Aquifer recharge is primarily determined by river–aquifer interactions and mostly occurs in the southern section of the study area. In wet years, groundwater recharge also occurs in the N'Djamena area. The approach we adopted provided relevant results and was useful as an initial step in more detailed modelling of the area. It also proved to be a useful method for groundwater modelling in large semi‐arid and arid regions where available data are scarce. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of the non-market value of the ecosystem services provided by the Catalan coastal zone,Spain

A spatial value transfer analysis was performed to generate baseline estimates of the value of ecosystem services in the coastal zone of Catalonia, Spain. The study used the best available conceptual frameworks, data sources, and analytical techniques to generate non-market monetary value estimates that can be used to identify scarce ecosystem services among competing coastal uses. The approach focused on natural and seminatural, terrestrial and marine systems, which provide essential services that are not considered in current economic markets. Results show that in 2004 a substantial economic value of $3,195 million USD/yr was delivered to local citizens by surrounding ecosystems. In a spatially explicit manner, the approach illustrates the contribution made by natural environmental systems to the well being of communities in the coastal zone of Catalonia. It is hoped that this study will highlight the need to consider these coastal systems in future management strategies to ensure their proper maintenance and conservation.     

Regional study on potential CO2 geosequestration in the Collie Basin and the Southern Perth Basin of Western Australia

Coal-fired power stations in Collie, Western Australia emit 10 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. This study assesses the potential opportunities of geological storage of CO₂ both within the Collie Basin and the onshore part of the adjacent Southern Perth Basin of Western Australia within 50 km of Collie town site through a desktop evaluation of existing data. The aquifers and coal formations within both basins have been evaluated for their suitability for storage based on geological, geographical and environmental criteria related to storage capacity, injectivity, proximity to sources of CO₂, location of other natural resources and containment security. The study has concluded that there is limited scope for large-scale storage of CO₂ within the Collie Basin. In addition the potential for storage within coals of either basin is not a viable solution. This assessment is based on published criteria for CO₂ storage in sedimentary basins and coal-bearing formations.     

Orbit and origin of the LL7 chondrite Dishchii'bikoh (Arizona)

The trajectory and orbit of the LL7 ordinary chondrite Dishchii'bikoh are derived from low‐light video observations of a fireball first detected at 10:56:26 UTC on June 2, 2016. Results show a relatively steep ~21° inclined orbit and a short 1.13 AU semimajor axis. Following entry in Earth's atmosphere, the meteor luminosity oscillated corresponding to a meteoroid spin rate of 2.28 ± 0.02 rotations per second. A large fragment broke off at 44 km altitude. Further down, mass was lost to dust during flares at altitudes of 34, 29, and 25 km. Surviving meteorites were detected by Doppler weather radar and several small 0.9–29 g meteorites were recovered under the radar reflection footprint. Based on cosmogenic radionuclides and ground‐based radiometric observations, the Dishchii'bikoh meteoroid was 80 ± 20 cm in diameter assuming the density was 3.5 g/cm³. The meteoroid's collisional history confirms that the unusual petrologic class of LL7 does not require a different parent body than three previously observed LL chondrite falls. Dishchii'bikoh was ejected 11 Ma ago from parent body material that has a 4471 ± 6 Ma U‐Pb age, the same as that of Chelyabinsk (4452 ± 21 Ma). The distribution of the four known pre‐impact LL chondrite orbits is best matched by dynamical modeling if the source of LL chondrites is in the inner asteroid belt in a low inclined orbit, with the highly inclined Dishchii'bikoh being the result of interactions with Earth before impacting.     

Petrographic and geochemical evidence for multiphase formation of carbonates in the Martian orthopyroxenite Allan Hills 84001

Martian meteorites can provide valuable information about past environmental conditions on Mars. Allan Hills 84001 formed more than 4 Gyr ago, and owing to its age and long exposure to the Martian environment, and this meteorite has features that may record early processes. These features include a highly fractured texture, gases trapped during one or more impact events or during formation of the rock, and spherical Fe‐Mg‐Ca carbonates. In this study, we have concentrated on providing new insights into the context of these carbonates using a range of techniques to explore whether they record multiple precipitation and shock events. The petrographic features and compositional properties of these carbonates indicate that at least two pulses of Mg‐ and Fe‐rich solutions saturated the rock. Those two generations of carbonates can be distinguished by a very sharp change in compositions, from being rich in Mg and poor in Fe and Mn, to being poor in Mg and rich in Fe and Mn. Between these two generations of carbonate is evidence for fracturing and local corrosion.     

New evidence of sea‐level lowstands and paleoenvironment during MIS 6 and 4 in the Cantabrian coastal karst: the Cobiheru cave (North Iberia)

The geomorphological evolution of the Cobiheru Cave shows the influence of the non‐carbonate coastal mountain ranges on coastal karst evolution, as well as the temporal distribution of the cold‐adapted fauna sites in the Cantabrian Coast. Geomorphological observation and uranium/thorium (U/Th) dating lead to the construction of an evolution model. The model comprises two episodes of cave deposition occurring at c. 60–70 and 130–150 ka, linked to cold climate conditions, global sea‐level lowstands and the erosion of alluvial fans that covered the karst. Moreover, the comparison between the Cobiheru record and some raised beaches identified in previous studies sets the beginning of the sea‐level lowering in the Cantabrian Sea during the marine isotope stages (MIS) 5–4 transition. Two palaeoenvironments are inferred based on finding Equus ferus and Elona quimperiana. A wet deciduous forest would have developed on the emerged marine terrace of the Cobiheru Cave since at least the Middle Pleistocene, and an open landscape with scarce vegetation would have been present at c. 65 ka. The erosional event identified in the Cobiheru Cave helps to understand the temporal distribution of cold‐adapted mammals located in the Asturias region. The probable sites of cold‐adapted fauna developed in caves and alluvial fans would have disappeared after 65 ka. Therefore, palaeontological and palaeoclimate research based on cold‐adapted mammals suggests the occurrence of an hiatus in the palaeontological record prior to 50 ka. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hybrid Neoliberalism: Implications for Sustainable Development

Neoliberalism is frequently blamed for challenges in achieving sustainable development; consequently some also question if sustainability is still a useful concept. Neoliberal influence on natural resource management has evolved over the last 30?years to a hybrid form that seeks to compensate for its negative social and environmental externalities. Through review of literature and critical analysis of three case studies of resource development in Australia and New Zealand, we argue that, in spite of modifications under hybrid approaches, neoliberalism still tests achievement of sustainability goals, due to privileging industry and shifting risk and costs to future generations, through inadequate regulation, neglect of public consultation, lack of transparency, and weak impact assessment. We suggest that while neoliberal approaches bring both benefits and disadvantages, sustainability principles must continue to be kept at the forefront of legislation, regulation and management.