North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability

The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992–2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified.     

Testing a spatially distributed tracer‐aided runoff model in a snow‐influenced catchment: Effects of multicriteria calibration on streamwater ages

Integrating stable isotope tracers into rainfall‐runoff models allows investigation of water partitioning and direct estimation of travel times and water ages. Tracer data have valuable information content that can be used to constrain models and, in integration with hydrometric observations, test the conceptualization of catchment processes in model structure and parameterization. There is great potential in using tracer‐aided modelling in snow‐influenced catchments to improve understanding of these catchments' dynamics and sensitivity to environmental change. We used the spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall‐runoff (STARR) model to simulate the interactions between water storage, flux, and isotope dynamics in a snow‐influenced, long‐term monitored catchment in Ontario, Canada. Multiple realizations of the model were achieved using a combination of single and multiple objectives as calibration targets. Although good simulations of hydrometric targets such as discharge and snow water equivalent could be achieved by local calibration alone, adequate capture of the stream isotope dynamics was predicated on the inclusion of isotope data in the calibration. Parameter sensitivity was highest, and most local, for single calibration targets. With multiple calibration targets, key sensitive parameters were still identifiable in snow and runoff generation routines. Water ages derived from flux tracking subroutines in the model indicated a catchment where runoff is dominated by younger waters, particularly during spring snowmelt. However, resulting water ages were most sensitive to the partitioning of runoff sources from soil and groundwater sources, which was most realistically achieved when isotopes were included in the calibration. Given the paucity of studies where hydrological models explicitly incorporate tracers in snow‐influenced regions, this study using STARR is an important contribution to satisfactorily simulating snowpack dynamics and runoff generation processes, while simultaneously capturing stable isotope variability in snow‐influenced catchments.     

Is there a limit to bioretention effectiveness? Evaluation of stormwater bioretention treatment using a lumped urban ecohydrologic model and ecologically based design criteria

In this study, we developed the urban ecohydrology model (UEM) to investigate the role of bioretention on watershed water balance, runoff production, and streamflow variability. UEM partitions the land surface into pervious, impervious, and bioretention cell fractions. Soil moisture and vegetation dynamics are simulated in pervious areas and bioretention cells using a lumped ecohydrological approach. Bioretention cells receive runoff from a fraction of impervious areas. The model is calibrated in an urban headwater catchment near Seattle, WA, USA, using hourly weather data and streamflow observations for 3 years. The calibrated model is first used to investigate the relationship between streamflow variability and bioretention cell size that receives runoff from different values of impervious area in the watershed. Streamflow variability is quantified by 2 indices, high pulse count (HPC), which quantifies the number of flow high pulses in a water year above a threshold, and high pulse range (HPR), which defines the time over which the pulses occurred. Low values of these indices are associated with improved stream health. The effectiveness of the modelled bioretention facilities are measured by their influence on reducing HPC and HPR and on flow duration curves in comparison with modelled fully forested conditions. We used UEM to examine the effectiveness of bioretention cells under rainfall regimes that are wetter and drier than the study area in an effort to understand linkages between the degree of urbanization, climate, and design bioretention cell size to improve inferred stream health conditions. In all model simulations, limits to the reduction of HPC and HPR indicators were reached as the size of bioretention cells grew. Bioretention was more effective as the rainfall regime gets drier. Results may guide bioretention design practices and future studies to explore climate change impacts on bioretention design and management.     

Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction

A primary step in the interpretation of speleothem stable isotope records (¹⁸O/¹⁶O and ¹³C/¹²C) is to conduct a comparison with other local palaeoclimate proxies. Here, two new master speleothem δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records (one from eastern North Island, and the other from western/southern South Island, New Zealand) are evaluated against independent precipitation and temperature proxy information to assess their palaeoclimate reconstruction potential. This comparison also resulted in a serendipitous opportunity to reconstruct past circulation using climate regime classification [Lorrey, A.M., Fowler, A.M., Salinger, J., 2007a. Regional climate regime classification as a qualitative tool for interpreting multi-proxy palaeoclimate data spatial patterns: a New Zealand case study. Palaeo-3, in press], specifically because these two regional climate districts are hyper-sensitive to westerly circulation changes, and in many cases, exhibit contrasting climate character in response to circulation anomalies.For both the western South Island and the eastern North Island master speleothem δ¹³C records, variations tracked changes in relative regional precipitation. The δ¹⁸O master speleothem record for both regions varied with temperature change. Both records contain strong regional climate signals that suggest they have good value for palaeoclimate reconstruction. The ensuing attempt at a multi-proxy reconstruction of regional climate regimes from the compiled proxies indicates past circulation in the New Zealand sector has varied considerably during the past four millennia. Centennial-scale circulation changes for the past 4000 years are evident, and are analogous to modern Blocking, Zonal and Trough regime types [Kidson J. W., 2000. An analysis of New Zealand synoptic types and their use in defining weather regimes. International Journal of Climatology 20, 299–316] that characterise changes in present-day (prevailing) westerly circulation. This palaeoclimate reconstruction indicates modern regional climate regime classification can be extended at least as far back as the temporal coverage of the records presented here, and it can likely be improved on with better dating control and the addition of new records with higher resolution. It is also anticipated that future work will expand to include more proxy data from across New Zealand to improve the clarity of past climate regime occurrence for the Late Holocene.     

Methodology for groundwater recharge assessment in carbonate aquifers: application to pilot sites in southern Spain

Aquifer recharge can be determined by conventional methods such as hydrodynamic or hydrologic balance calculations, or numerical, hydrochemical or isotopic models. Such methods are usually developed with respect to detrital aquifers and are then used on carbonate aquifers without taking into consideration their hydrogeological particularities. Moreover, such methods are not always easy to apply, sometimes requiring data that are not available. Neither do they enable determination of the spatial distribution of the recharge. For eight regions in southern Spain, the APLIS method has been used to estimate the mean annual recharge in carbonate aquifers, expressed as a percentage of precipitation, based on the variables altitude, slope, lithology, infiltration landform, and soil type. The aquifers are representative of a broad range of climatic and geologic conditions. Maps of the above variables have been drawn for each aquifer, using a geographic information system; thus they can be superimposed to obtain the mean value and spatial distribution of the recharge. The recharge values for the eight aquifers are similar to those previously calculated by conventional methods and confirmed by discharge values, which corroborates the validity of the method.     

The structure and function of dry weather mangroves on the Pacific Coast of Central America,with emphasis onAvicennia bicolor forests

Mangrove forests along the Pacific Coast of Central America cover around 4,000 km². Most of this coast is occupied with tropical dry forest mangroves where basal areas range between 6 and 20 m² ha^?1 and canopy heights rarely exceed 20 m. Rainfall and runoff alter structure and floristic composition from site to site. Reproductive phenology and mortality appear to be related to soil water availability.Avicennia bicolor forests reach a density of 4,350 plants that are taller than 0.50 m ha^?1, with 769 trees above 5 cm diameter at breast height A total basal area of 41 m² ha^?1 together with a canopy height of about 23 m place these forests among the most developed in the western hemisphere. Growth rate (0.38 m² ha^?1 yr^?1) is surprisingly high for mangrove forests under a seasonal dry climate.     

Evaluation of seismic hazard at Roermond, The Netherlands: A comparison of results after the 13 April 1992 earthquake

Mean return periods, RP, for the site of Roermond, The Netherlands, as calculated by different methods, are compared, and its quality evaluated by a simple two-tail test of hypothesis. Results show that RP values by the EGO-method are statistically more likely. They can be considered, despite their broad 90% probability intervals, and for the site and data used, more reliable, since the Roermond earthquake was not an unusual or surprising event for the Lower Rhine Embayment area, where earthquakes of comparable size have occurred since the 18th century.