Predicting shoreline evolution on a centennial scale using the example of the vistula (Baltic) spit

The proposed algorithm comprises three main steps. The first step is the evaluation of the sediment transport and budget. It was shown that the root segment of the Vistula Spit is dominated by eastward longshore sediment transport (up to 50 thousand m³/year). Over the rest of the spit, the shoreline??s orientation causes westward sediment transport (more than 100 thousand m³/year). The gradients of the longshore and cross shore sediment transport become the major contributors to the overall sediment balance. The only exception is the northeastern tip of the spit due to the appreciable imbalance of the sediment budget (13 m³m^?1 yr^?1). The second step in the prediction modeling is the estimation of the potential sea-level changes during the 21st century. The third step involves modeling of the shoreline??s behavior using the SPELT model [6, 7, 8]. In the most likely scenario, the rate of the recession is predicted to be about 0.3 m/year in 2010?C2050 and will increase to 0.4 m/year in 2050?C2100. The sand deficit, other than the sea-level rise, will be a key factor in the control of the shoreline??s evolution at the northeastern tip of the spit, and the amount of recession will range from 160 to 200 m in 2010?C2100.     

Russian studies of atmospheric electricity in 2011–2014

This review contains the most significant results of Russian studies in the field of atmospheric electricity in 2011–2014. It is part of the Russian National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences to the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS). The report was presented and approved at the XXVI General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG).¹ The review is followed by a list of the main published works on the studies of atmospheric electricity of Russian scientists in 2011–2014.     

Transient Atmospheric Events Measured by Detectors on the Vernov Satellite

In this paper, data obtained by the Vernov satellite are discussed in comparison with the data obtained by Universitetsky–Tatiana-1, 2 satellites. The advanced instrumentation onboard the Vernov satellite improved the capabilities of the data-transmission system, providing an opportunity to acquire more detailed information on transient atmospheric events (TAEs), including a wider range of TAE photon numbers (event brightness) down to lower photon numbers, the opportunity to observe the events in ultraviolet range without the considerable inclusion of red–infrared photons (which indicates the substantial contribution of electric discharges, lightning precursors, at the altitudes of thunderstorm clouds), and the observation of TAE series at a rate of about 10–100 occurrences per second with a period from tens of seconds to several minutes.     

Seismic Activity and Structures of the Crust and Upper Mantle in the Areas of Source Zones of the Largest Earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan Region

The results of studies of the shear wave attenuation field in source zones of the 2003 Chuya, 1970 Ureg-Nur, 1991 Busingol, 2011 Sayan, and 2011–2012 Tuva earthquakes are presented. Attenuation fields in these source zones include blocks with a high Q-factor and linear weakened zones. The surface ruptures from the mainshocks of the 2003 Chuya and 2011–2012 Tuva earthquakes are located in the zones of strong attenuation. Epicenters of the mainshocks are located where the maximum contrast in attenuation is observed. In the source zones of large earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan region or near them, the zones similar to so-called seimogenic bodies described in the literature are found. These objects tend to linear zones with high attenuation and are characterized by an increased density of deepened earthquakes and also by deformations of near-vertical elongation. The obtained data suggest that the fluid factor could play certain role in the occurrence of large earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan region.     

Assessing the Hydrochemical Conditions of the Tartar River

The paper gives the results of hydrochemical studies of the Tartar R.—the largest river in Nagornyi Karabakh Republic (NKR). Water quality was assessed with respect to the ecological standards of the Republic of Armenia in terms of major physicochemical characteristics and the concentrations of seven heavy metals. Water quality in the upper reaches of the Tartar R. was referred to the fifth class (poor quality), which is due to the effect of the dumps of the Sotck Gold Deposit and the pollution by agricultural, livestock, and municipal wastewaters. In the lower reaches of the Tartar R., the processes of dilution and self-purification neutralize the adverse effect of pollution sources on water quality, resulting in the improvement of water quality to the class not lower than medium, which is enough for the normal functioning of aquatic ecosystems, fishery, and irrigation. Thus, the Sarang Reservoir, which regulates the Tartar R. runoff, receives good-quality water.     

Spectral method for estimating the quality of the medium from one source and two stations

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The method is suggested for estimating the quality (coefficient Q) of the medium from the longitudinal waves of the earthquakes in the regional zone (Q P )....     

Geographical and Ecological Characteristics of the Caspian Sea and Modern Tendencies in the Evolution of Its Ecosystem

The Caspian Sea is characterized in the geographic and ecological aspects, and the state of its ecosystem is estimated. The natural and anthropogenic processes that control the formation of the environmental conditions in the Caspian Sea and the distribution of principal commercial hydrobionts and their food items are analyzed. Data on modern tendencies in changes in the abiotic and biotic parameters of the ecosystem, their causes and mechanisms are summarized. Prospects of further changes related to the development of shelf fields of petroleum hydrocarbons are assessed.     

Problem of transient turbulent convection and a semiempirical profile of turbulent heat exchange coefficient in freshwater bodies

A problem of convective cooling of both freshwater and saltwater lake is formulated. A transient one-dimensional turbulent model with variable layer depth is proposed to describe the process of freezing. The dependence of layer depth on time is determined by a universal equation describing the propagation of Deardorff convective layer. A combination of the main form of equations of Kolmogorov–Obukhov theory and available experimental data is shown to allow the construction of a universal profile of turbulent exchange coefficient, depending on the height.