An adaptive sampling approach to reduce uncertainty in slope stability analysis

An adaptive sampling approach is proposed, which can sample spatially varying shear strength parameters efficiently to reduce uncertainty in the slope stability analysis. This approach employs a limit equilibrium model and stochastic conditional methodology to determine the likely sampling locations. Karhunen-Loève expansion is used to conduct the conditional Monte Carlo simulation. A first-order analysis is also proposed to ease the computational burden associated with Monte Carlo simulation. These approaches are then tested using borehole data from a field site. Results indicate that the proposed adaptive sampling approach is an effective and efficient sampling scheme for reducing uncertainty in slope stability analysis.     

Investigating the application of climate models in flood projection across the UK

Regional climate models (RCMs) have emerged as the preferred tool in hydrological impact assessment at the catchment scale. The direct application of RCM precipitation output is still not recommended; instead, a number of alternative methods have been proposed. One method that has been used is the change factor methodology, which typically uses changes to monthly mean or seasonal precipitation totals to develop change scenarios. However, such simplistic approaches are subject to significant caveats. In this paper, 18 RCMs covering the UK from the ENSEMBLES and UKCP09 projects are analysed across different catchments. The ensembles' ability in capturing monthly total and extreme precipitation is outlined to explore how the ability to make confident statements about future flood risk varies between different catchments. The suitability of applying simplistic change factor approaches in flood impact studies is also explored. We found that RCM ensembles do have some skill in simulating observed monthly precipitation; however, seasonal patterns of bias were evident across each of the catchments. Moreover, even apparently good simulations of extreme rainfall can mis‐estimate the magnitude of flood‐generating rainfall events in ways that would significantly affect flood risk management. For future changes in monthly mean precipitation, we observe the clear ‘drier summers/wetter winters’ signal used to develop current UK policy, but when we look instead at flood‐generating rainfall, this seasonal signal is less clear and greater increases are projected. Furthermore, the confidence associated with future projections varies from catchment to catchment and season to season as a result of the varying ability of the RCM ensembles, and in some cases, future flood risk projections using RCM outputs may be highly problematic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater modelling with limited data sets: the Chari–Logone area (Lake Chad Basin,Chad)

One of the most important issues for water resource management is developing strategies for groundwater modelling that are adaptable to data scarcity. These strategies are particularly important in arid and semi‐arid areas where access to data is poor and data collection is difficult, such as the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. In the present study, we establish a numerical groundwater flow model and evaluate the effects of dry and wet periods on groundwater recharge in the Chari–Logone area (96 000 km²) of the Lake Chad Basin. Boundary conditions, flow direction, sources, and sinks for the Chari–Logone local model were obtained by revising and remodelling the Lake Chad Basin regional hydrogeological model (508 400 km²) developed by the BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) in the 1990s. The simulated aquifer water level showed good agreement with observed levels. Aquifer recharge is primarily determined by river–aquifer interactions and mostly occurs in the southern section of the study area. In wet years, groundwater recharge also occurs in the N'Djamena area. The approach we adopted provided relevant results and was useful as an initial step in more detailed modelling of the area. It also proved to be a useful method for groundwater modelling in large semi‐arid and arid regions where available data are scarce. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

古魔翼龙和披羽蛇翼龙的水上起飞能力

Many of the large pterodactyloid pterosaurs come from marine sediments or inland freshwater deposits (Lawson, 1975; Bennett, 1994; Wang et al., 2005; Unwin, 2006).     

Holocene environmental change in southern Spain deduced from the isotopic record of a high-elevation wetland in Sierra Nevada

Small lakes and wetlands from high elevation within the Sierra Nevada Range (southern Spain) preserve a complete post-glacial Holocene record. Isotopic, TOC and C/N analyses, carried out on a sediment core, show various stages in the evolution of the Borreguiles de la Virgen, which today constitute a small bog at about 2,950?m above sea level. Glacial erosion generated a cirque depression, which became a small lake during the first phase of infilling (from?8,200 to 5,100?cal?yr BP), as suggested by sedimentary evidence, including an atomic C/N ratio generally below 20, low TOC values and the highest ??¹³C and ??¹⁵N values of the record. These results imply significant algal productivity, which is confirmed by the microscopic algal remains. Drier conditions became established progressively in this area from?5,100 to 3,700?cal?yr BP. Subsequently, the lake evolved into a bog as shown by geochemical evidence (C/N ratios above 20, high TOC content and low ??¹³C values). Unstable conditions prevailed from?3,600 to 700?cal?yr BP; an extremely low sedimentation rate and scarcity of data from this period do not allow us to make a coherent interpretation. Fluctuating conditions were recorded during the last?~700?cal?yr BP, with wetter conditions prevailing during the first part of the interval (with C/N rate below 20) up to 350?years ago. In general, a gradual trend toward more arid conditions occurred since?~6,900?cal?yr BP, with a further increase in aridity since?~5,100?cal?yr BP. This evidence is consistent with other contemporaneous peri-Mediterranean records.     

Interrelations between socio-economic development and environmental quality: a simulation integrating system dynamics models with GIS

System dynamics （SD） theory has long been deployed in modeling complex non-linear interrelationships but, so far it has not been common to do the kind of modeling in support of bringing environmental sustainability policies to practice. This is largely because the challenge of including spatial data has not yet been well met. Potential for adoption of SD and GIS methods in combination is exemplified with the results of a decision-support exercise designed for simulation and prediction of the dynamic inter-relationships between socio-economic development and environmental quality for the “Wen, Pi, Du” county in Sichuan province, southwestern China.     

Assessment of toxicological status of a SW Mediterranean segment population of striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba) using skin biopsy

Various studies have revealed high concentrations of contaminants such as organochlorines (OCs) and heavy metals in Mediterranean cetaceans. A geographical trend of contamination (PCBs and DDTs) has been found for striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba). In this study we used a non-lethal approach (skin biopsy) to investigate bioaccumulation of OCs, including polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), DDTs, polychlorodibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorodibenzofurans (PCDFs), trace elements (Hg, Cd, Pb) and CYP1A activity (BPMO) in nine striped dolphins sampled in the Aeolian area (Sicily - Italy) in summer 2002. The arithmetic mean value of BPMO activity in this group was 43.46 AUF/g tissue/h. This value is approximately 3 times and 5 times lower, respectively, than the value found in the Ionian and in the Ligurian groups. Skin biopsies of striped dolphins emerged as a suitable material for assessing the toxicological status of the various Mediterranean groups.