Interrelations between socio-economic development and environmental quality: a simulation integrating system dynamics models with GIS

System dynamics （SD） theory has long been deployed in modeling complex non-linear interrelationships but, so far it has not been common to do the kind of modeling in support of bringing environmental sustainability policies to practice. This is largely because the challenge of including spatial data has not yet been well met. Potential for adoption of SD and GIS methods in combination is exemplified with the results of a decision-support exercise designed for simulation and prediction of the dynamic inter-relationships between socio-economic development and environmental quality for the “Wen, Pi, Du” county in Sichuan province, southwestern China.     

A combined spectrophotometric and morphometric study of the lunar mare dome fields near Cauchy, Arago, Hortensius, and Milichius

In this study we examine the spectral and morphometric properties of the four important lunar mare dome fields near Cauchy, Arago, Hortensius, and Milichius. We utilize Clementine UV-vis multispectral data to examine the soil composition of the mare domes while employing telescopic CCD imagery to compute digital elevation maps in order to determine their morphometric properties, especially flank slope, height, and edifice volume. After reviewing previous attempts to determine topographic data for lunar domes, we propose an image-based 3D reconstruction approach which is based on a combination of photoclinometry and shape from shading. Accordingly, we devise a classification scheme for lunar mare domes which is based on a principal component analysis of the determined spectral and morphometric features. For the effusive mare domes of the examined fields we establish four classes, two of which are further divided into two subclasses, respectively, where each class represents distinct combinations of spectral and morphometric dome properties. As a general trend, shallow and steep domes formed out of low-TiO₂ basalts are observed in the Hortensius and Milichius dome fields, while the domes near Cauchy and Arago that consist of high-TiO₂ basalts are all very shallow. The intrusive domes of our data set cover a wide continuous range of spectral and morphometric quantities, generally characterized by larger diameters and shallower flank slopes than effusive domes. A comparison to effusive and intrusive mare domes in other lunar regions, highland domes, and lunar cones has shown that the examined four mare dome fields display such a richness in spectral properties and 3D dome shape that the established representation remains valid in a more global context. Furthermore, we estimate the physical parameters of dome formation for the examined domes based on a rheologic model. Each class of effusive domes defined in terms of spectral and morphometric properties is characterized by its specific range of values for lava viscosity, effusion rate, and duration of the effusion process. For our data set we report lava viscosities between about 10² and , effusion rates between 25 and , and durations of the effusion process between three weeks and 18 years. Lava viscosity decreases with increasing R₄₁₅/R₇₅₀ spectral ratio and thus TiO₂ content; however, the correlation is not strong, implying an important influence of further parameters like effusion temperature on lava viscosity.     

Embedding isochronous cells overland flow module into MODFLOW

This study integrates a simple overland flow module (isochronous cells model) with the river module of MODFLOW such that temporal and spatial interactions between stream flow and groundwater can be simulated using net rainfall data of a watershed. The isochronous cells model is an efficient travel time runoff approach based on geographic information system (GIS) that considers both spatial and temporal variations of net rainfall through hill slope of the watershed. This overland module is easily coupled with MODFLOW river routing module. Specifically, the stream flow from the isochronous cells model is directly assigned to both sides of river cells of the MODFLOW model. Such an integration of MODFLOW and isochronous cells model is especially useful in watersheds where river flow data are limited. The feasibility of this integrated model was demonstrated using a case study in the middle and downstream regions of the Yitong River watershed, China. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationship between wind power production and North Atlantic atmospheric circulation over the northeastern Iberian Peninsula

The wind power generated during winter months 1999–2003 at several wind farms in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula is investigated through the application of a statistical downscaling. This allows for an improved understanding of the wind power variability and its relationship to the large scale atmospheric circulation. It is found that 97 % of the variability of this non-climatic variable is connected to changes in the atmospheric circulation. The methodological uncertainty associated with multiple configurations of the statistical downscaling method replicates well the observed variability of the wind power, an indication of the robustness of the methodology to changes in the model set up. In addition, the use of the statistical model is extended out of the observational period providing an estimation of the long-term variability of wind power throughout the twentieth century. The extended wind power reconstruction shows large inter-annual and multidecadal variability. Alternative approaches to calibrate the empirical downscaling model using actual wind power observations have also been investigated. They involve the estimation of wind power changes from downscaled wind values and make use of several transfer functions based on the linearity between wind and wind energy. The performance of the latter approaches is similar to the direct downscaling of wind power and may allow wind power production estimations even in the absence of historical wind turbine records. These results can be of great interest for deriving medium/long term impact-oriented energy assessments, especially when wind power observations are missing as well as in the context of climate change scenarios.     

Physically based evaluation of climate models over the Iberian Peninsula

A novel approach is proposed for evaluating regional climate models based on the comparison of empirical relationships among model outcome variables. The approach is actually a quantitative adaptation of the method for evaluating global climate models proposed by Betts (Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1673–1688, 2004). Three selected relationships among different magnitudes involved in water and energy land surface budgets are firstly established using daily re-analysis data. The selected relationships are obtained for an area encompassing two river basins in the southern Iberian Peninsula corresponding to 2 months, representative of dry and wet seasons. The same corresponding relations are also computed for each of the thirteen regional simulations of the ENSEMBLES project over the same area. The usage of a metric based on the Hellinger coefficient allows a quantitative estimation of how well models are performing in simulating the relations among surface magnitudes. Finally, a series of six rankings of the thirteen regional climate models participating in the ENSEMBLES project is obtained based on their ability to simulate such surface processes.     

Joint multifractal description of the relationship between wind patterns and land surface air temperature

Land surface air temperature (SAT), registered at 1.25–2 m above the ground, is influenced by wind patterns. As a consequence, some phenomena such as urban heat islands and the formation of ground-level air pollutants are affected. Detailed understanding of the effects of wind circulations on SAT is convenient to improve the knowledge of these phenomena. Thus, the joint multifractal analysis has been applied to describe time series recorded at Cordoba (southern Spain) from 2001 to 2008 revealing the presence of seasonal patterns related with warm and cold winds blowing from the SW (later spring and summer) and NE (later autumn and winter), respectively, that provoke different heterogeneity in SAT values. In addition, the extreme high SAT values seem to be related with summer SW winds. However, the presence of rare low SAT values produced by NE winds is less relevant.     

Evaluation of the controls affecting the quality of spatial data derived from historical aerial photographs

This paper is concerned with the fundamental controls affecting the quality of data derived from historical aerial photographs typically used in geomorphological studies. A short review is provided of error sources introduced into the photogrammetric workflow. Data‐sets from two case‐studies provided a variety of source data and hence a good opportunity to evaluate the influence of the quality of archival material on the accuracy of coordinated points. Based on the statistical weights assigned to the measurements, precision of the data was estimated a priori, while residuals of independent checkpoints provided an a posteriori measure of data accuracy. Systematic discrepancies between the two values indicated that the routinely used stochastic model was incorrect and overoptimistic. Optimized weighting factors appeared significantly larger than previously used (and accepted) values. A test of repeat measurements explained the large uncertainties associated with the use of natural objects for ground control. This showed that the random errors not only appeared to be much larger than values accepted for appropriately controlled and targeted photogrammetric networks, but also small undetected gross errors were induced through the ‘misidentification’ of points. It is suggested that the effects of such ‘misidentifications’ should be reflected in the stochastic model through selection of more realistic weighting factors of both image and ground measurements. Using the optimized weighting factors, the accuracy of derived data can now be more truly estimated, allowing the suitability of the imagery to be judged before purchase and processing. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HF radar data quality requirements for wave measurement

HF radar wave measurements are presented focussing on theoretical limitations, and thus radar operating parameters, and quality control requirements to ensure robust measurements across a range of sea states. Data from three radar deployments, off the west coast of Norway, Celtic Sea and Liverpool Bay using two different radar systems, WERA and Pisces, and different radio frequency ranges, are used to demonstrate the wave measurement capability of HF radar and to illustrate the points made. Aspects of the measurements that require further improvements are identified. These include modifications to the underlying theory particularly in high sea states, identification and removal of ships and interference from the radar signals before wave processing and/or intelligent partitioning to remove these from the wave spectrum. The need to match the radio frequency to the expected wave peak frequency and waveheight range, with lower radio frequencies performing better at higher waveheights and lower peak frequencies and vice versa, is demonstrated. For operations across a wide range of oceanographic conditions a radar able to operate at more than one frequency is recommended for robust wave measurement. Careful quality control is needed to ensure accurate wave measurements.