Site characterization in the Vega Baja, SE Spain, using ambient-noise H/V analysis

New available geological, geotechnical, and geophysical data and new acquired ambient-noise surveys allowed for a detailed characterization of the soils in the Vega Baja region, located in the Lower Segura River basin, SE of the Iberian Peninsula. Single-station measurements were carried out at 90 sites, mainly over the central area of the basin, checking reproducibility by repeating some measurements under different conditions, on different dates, and through different acquisition systems, following well established standard procedures. The detailed data processing and analysis of the new acquired ambient-noise records provided the identification of multiple peaks in some of the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio curves, representing different impedance contrasts at depth that were 1D modelled to characterize the Vega Baja soils in terms of resonant frequencies, average shear-wave velocity, thickness of the different soil units, depth to the engineering bedrock and depth to the rock units when the model includes it. The depth to the engineering bedrock is around 30 m in the central part of the region, reaching maximum values of about 50 m in the north and to the east. Maximum values of the shear-wave velocity averaged over the soil units are close to 200 m/s while that averaged in the top 30 m reach values around 300 m/s south of the river bank. Contour mapping and cross-sections of the obtained model parameters illustrate the soil characteristics over the region, providing relevant information for the generation of representative sets of seismic hazard scenarios at different probability levels in future studies for their application in risk mitigation and emergency planning in the Vega Baja.     

Comparison of approaches for predicting solute transport: sandbox experiments

The main purpose of this paper was to compare three approaches for predicting solute transport. The approaches include: (1) an effective parameter/macrodispersion approach (Gelhar and Axness 1983); (2) a heterogeneous approach using ordinary kriging based on core samples; and (3) a heterogeneous approach based on hydraulic tomography. We conducted our comparison in a heterogeneous sandbox aquifer. The aquifer was first characterized by taking 48 core samples to obtain local-scale hydraulic conductivity (K). The spatial statistics of these K values were then used to calculate the effective parameters. These K values and their statistics were also used for kriging to obtain a heterogeneous K field. In parallel, we performed a hydraulic tomography survey using hydraulic tests conducted in a dipole fashion with the drawdown data analyzed using the sequential successive linear estimator code (Yeh and Liu 2000) to obtain a K distribution (or K tomogram). The effective parameters and the heterogeneous K fields from kriging and hydraulic tomography were used in forward simulations of a dipole conservative tracer test. The simulated and observed breakthrough curves and their temporal moments were compared. Results show an improvement in predictions of drawdown behavior and tracer transport when the K tomogram from hydraulic tomography was used. This suggests that the high-resolution prediction of solute transport is possible without collecting a large number of small-scale samples to estimate flow and transport properties that are costly to obtain at the field scale.     

Assessing the potential underestimation of sediment and nutrient loads to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon during floods

Much of the sediment and nutrient load to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon happens during over bank floods, when discharge can be significantly underestimated by standard river gauges. This paper assesses the potential need for a flood load correction for 28 coastal rivers that discharge into the GBR lagoon. For each river, daily discharge was divided into flows above and below a 'flood' threshold to calculate the mean annual percentage flow above this threshold. Most GBR rivers potentially need a flood load correction as over 15% of their mean annual flow occurs above the minor flood level; only seven rivers need little/no correction as their flood flows were less than 5% of the mean annual flow. Improved assessment of the true load of materials to the GBR lagoon would be an important contribution to the monitoring and reporting of progress towards Reef Plan and associated marine load targets.     

Pro‐glacial lake sedimentation from jökulhlaups (GLOF), Blåmannsisen,northern Norway

Outburst floods from glacier‐dammed lakes are major events associated with glacier thinning and volume reduction. This paper investigates jökulhlaups emanating from the glacier‐dammed lake Øvre Messingmalmvatn at Rundvassbreen, an outlet glacier of the Blåmannsisen ice cap in northern Norway. Since 2001, the lake has several times been observed to drain suddenly, causing jökulhlaup outbursts into the pro‐glacial lake Rundvatnet. Varve analysis and lead‐210 (²¹⁰Pb) dating were used to date sediment cores taken from Rundvatnet. It was found that sedimentation from jökulhlaups is recognizable in the lake as distinct sand layers embedded in the varved silt‐clay sequence which represents the normal lake sedimentation. Sand fractions were carried in suspension because of the extreme hydraulic conditions of jökulhlaups. The thickest sand layer was deposited during the 2001 jökulhlaup which lasted three days and had a total volume of 40 ×10⁶ m³. Jökulhlaups were also recorded in 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2010; they each resulted in a sand layer. Annual sediment accumulation in Rundvatnet increased up to 10‐fold during the years with jökulhlaup outburst floods, from a normal value of 1–2 mm yr^?1 to 8–10 mm yr^?1. Five other jökulhlaups were identified from the 1910–1930 sedimentation interval, in addition to those observed in 2001–2010; there appear to have been none for 70 years during 1931–2000. Each jökulhlaup was preceded by a period when the glacier thinned to a critical volume and could no longer withstand the hydrostatic pressure of Øvre Messingmalmvatn; consequently a tunnel developed beneath the glacier, leading to a jökulhlaup. Statistical analyses of the correlations between the pro‐glacial sedimentation rate and temperature and precipitation suggested that although climate conditions are expected to influence sedimentation in the pro‐glacial catchment, a host of other interacting factors moderate the availability and delivery of sediment to the pro‐glacial system, making the processes responsible for changes in pro‐glacial sedimentation to remain uncertain. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Investigation of the Pressure Pulsing Reagent Delivery Approach

Pressure pulsing technology is an innovative method that has been developed with the aim of overcoming preferred flow paths associated with remediation techniques that rely on the injection of reagents. Numerical and field experiments were conducted to assess how pressure pulsing affects groundwater flow and solute transport during reagent injection. A series of field experiments were performed at two field sites where a monitoring network designed to capture the breakthrough of solutes delivered from an injection well was installed. Pressure pulsing and conventional injection methods were used at each site. One site was comprised of fine sand with low heterogeneity, while the other was moderately heterogeneous with discrete layers varying from fine sand to silt. The data suggest that breakthrough was more uniform for the pressure pulsing injections; however, this difference was minor and complicated by sorption of some of the tracers employed. The groundwater flow and solute transport modeling exercise simulated the rapid boundary pressure modulation that occurs in association with pressure pulsing. Two‐dimensional (2D) simulations revealed that repeated sudden onset of injection cessation produces brief periods of gradient reversal and the development of a mixing zone near the injection well. The spatial extents of this mixing zone were found to be highly dependent upon the hydraulic diffusivity of the medium, with medium heterogeneity and pulsing frequency playing secondary roles. Three‐dimensional (3D) numerical simulations were used to benchmark the observations from one of the field sites. The results from the modeling effort showed that solute breakthrough from a pressure pulsing injection is more dispersed relative to a conventional injection as a result of the mixing zone phenomenon; however, we were unable to directly observe this mixing zone using the instrumentation deployed at the two field sites.     

When does spatial resolution become spurious in probabilistic flood inundation predictions?

Advances in remote sensing have enabled hydraulic models to run at fine scale resolutions, producing precise flood inundation predictions. However, running models at finer resolutions increase their computational expense, reducing the feasibility of running the multiple model realizations required to undertake uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, it is possible that precision gained by running fine scale models is smoothed out when treating models probabilistically. The aim of this paper is to determine the level of spatial complexity that is required when making probabilistic flood inundation predictions. The Imera basin, Sicily is used as a case study to assess how changing the spatial resolution of the hydraulic model LISFLOOD‐FP impacts on the skill of conditional probabilistic flood inundation maps given model parameter and boundary condition uncertainties. We find that model performance deteriorates at resolutions coarser than 50 m. This is predominantly caused by changes in flow pathways at coarser resolutions which lead to non‐stationarity in the optimum model parameters at different spatial resolutions. However, although it is still possible to produce probabilistic flood maps that contain a coherent outline of the flood extent at coarser resolutions, the reliability of these maps deteriorates at resolutions coarser than 100 m. Additionally, although the rejection of non‐behavioural models reduces the uncertainty in probabilistic flood maps the reliability of these maps is also reduced. Models with resolutions finer than 50 m offer little gain in performance yet are more than an order of magnitude computationally expensive which can become infeasible when undertaking probabilistic analysis. Furthermore, we show that using deterministic, high‐resolution flood maps can lead to a spurious precision that would be misleading and not representative of the overall uncertainties that are inherent in making inundation predictions. Copyright © 2015 The Authors Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in SE-Spain based on macroseismic site histories

In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.     

Simulation of long‐term soil redistribution by tillage using a cellular automata model

The process of tillage translocation is well studied and can be described adequately by different existing models. Nevertheless, in complex environments with numerous obstacles, such as olive orchards, the application of conventional tillage erosion models is not straightforward. However, such obstacles have important effects on the spatial pattern of soil redistribution and on resulting soil properties. Cellular automata could provide a valuable alternative here. This study aims at developing a cellular automata model for tillage translocation (CATT) that can take into account such obstacles, exploring its possibilities and limitations. Firstly, model outcome was tested on a traditional field with rolling topography, for which caesium‐137 (¹³⁷Cs) inventories are available. The observed spatial soil redistribution patterns could be adequately represented by the CATT model. Secondly, a global sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the effect of input parameter uncertainty on several selected model outputs. The variance‐based extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method was used to determine first‐ and total‐order sensitivity indices. Tillage depth was identified as the input parameter that determined most of the output variance, followed respectively by tillage direction and speed. The high difference between the total‐ and first‐order sensitivity indices indicated that, in spite of the simple model structure, the model behaves non‐linearly with respect to some of the model output variables. Higher order interactions were especially important for determining the proportion of eroding and deposition cells. Finally, simulations were performed to analyse the model behaviour in complex landscapes, applying it to a field with protruding obstacles (representing olive trees). The model adequately represented some morphological features observed in actual olive orchards, such as mounds around the olive trees. The results show that cellular automata are an appropriate tool to describe long‐term tillage soil redistribution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.