An adaptive sampling approach to reduce uncertainty in slope stability analysis

An adaptive sampling approach is proposed, which can sample spatially varying shear strength parameters efficiently to reduce uncertainty in the slope stability analysis. This approach employs a limit equilibrium model and stochastic conditional methodology to determine the likely sampling locations. Karhunen-Loève expansion is used to conduct the conditional Monte Carlo simulation. A first-order analysis is also proposed to ease the computational burden associated with Monte Carlo simulation. These approaches are then tested using borehole data from a field site. Results indicate that the proposed adaptive sampling approach is an effective and efficient sampling scheme for reducing uncertainty in slope stability analysis.     

Laboratory Experiments on Convective Entrainment Using a Saline Water Tank

Entrainment fluxes in a shear-free convective boundary layer have been measured with a saline water tank set-up. The experiments were targeted towards measuring the entrainment behaviour for medium to high Richardson numbers and use a two-layer design, i.e. two stacked non-stratified (neutral) layers with different densities. With laser induced fluorescence (LIF), the entrainment flux of a fluorescent dye is measured for bulk Richardson numbers in the range 30–260. It is proposed that a carefully chosen combination of top-down and bottom-up processes improves the accuracy of LIF-based entrainment observations. The observed entrainment fluxes are about an order of magnitude lower than reported for thermal water tanks: the derived buoyancy entrainment ratio, $A$ , is found to be $A \approx 0.02$ , which is to be compared with $A\approx 0.25$ for a thermal convection tank (Deardorff et al., J Fluid Mech 100:41–64, 1980). An extensive discussion is devoted to the influence of the Reynolds and Prandtl numbers in laboratory experiments on entrainment.     

An integrated water balance model for assessing water scarcity in a data-sparse interfluve in eastern India

Abstract

The objective of this study is to measure the balance of water demand versus water resource availability in an interfluve of West Bengal, India to support water resource planning, particularly of inter-basin transfers. Surface water availability was modelled using the US Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) approach, whilst groundwater availability was modelled based on water-level fluctuations and the rainfall infiltration method. Water use was modelled separately for the agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors using a predominantly normative approach and water use to availability ratios calculated for different administrative areas within the interfluve. Overall, the approach suggested that the interfluve receives 327 × 10⁶ m³ year^-1 of excess water after satisfying these sectoral demands, but that the eastern part of the study area is in deficit. However, a sensitivity analysis carried on the approach to several assumptions in the model suggested changed circumstances would produce surplus/deficit ranging from ?215 × 10⁶ to 435 × 10⁶ m³ year^-1 . The approach could have potential for localised water balance modelling in other Indian catchments.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes     

Corrosion of metal roof materials related to volcanic ash interactions

Metal roofing material is commonly used for residential and industrial roofs in volcanically active areas. Increased corrosion of metal roofing from chemically reactive volcanic ash following ash deposition post-eruption is a major concern due to decreasing the function and stability of roofs. Currently, assessment of ash-induced corrosion is anecdotal, and quantitative data are lacking. Here, we systematically evaluate the corrosive effects of volcanic ash, specifically ash leachates, on a variety of metal roofing materials (i.e. weathered steel, zinc, galvanized steel, and Colorsteel©) utilizing weathering chamber experiments and direct acid treatments. Weathering chamber tests were carried out for up to 30 days, and visual, chemical, and surface analyses did not definitively identify significant corrosion in any of the test roofing metal samples. Direct concentrated acid treatments with hydrochloric (HCl), sulphuric (H₂SO₄), and hydrofluoric (HF) acids demonstrate that roofing materials are chemically resilient. Our experimental results suggest that ash-leachate-related corrosion is a longer-term process (>1 month), potentially related to a multitude of factors including increased ash leachate concentrations, the dissolution of the glass matrix of the ash, moisture retention at the ash-surface boundary, and potential reactions involving photo-oxidation. Overall, corrosion is not a simple process related to the short-term release of acid and/or salt leachates from the ash surface, but a product of dynamic interactions involving ash and water at the surface of metal roofing material for extended periods.     

The 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes: context and cause of injury

The aim of this study was to investigate causes of injury during the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Data on patients injured during the Darfield (4 September 2010) and Christchurch (22 February 2011) earthquakes were sourced from the New Zealand Accident Compensation Corporation. The total injury burden was analyzed for demography, context of injury, causes of injury, and injury type. Injury context was classified as direct (shaking of the primary earthquake or aftershocks causing unavoidable injuries), action (movement of person during the primary earthquake or aftershocks causing potentially avoidable injuries), and secondary (cause of injury after shaking ceased). Nine categories of injury cause were identified. Three times as many people were injured in the Christchurch earthquake as in the Darfield earthquake (7,171 vs. 2,256). The primary shaking caused approximately two-thirds of the injuries from both quakes. Actions during the primary shaking and aftershocks led to many injuries (51.3 % Darfield and 19.4 % Christchurch). Primary direct caused the highest proportion of injuries during the daytime Christchurch quake (43.6 %). Many people were injured after shaking stopped in both events: 499 (22.1 % Darfield) and 1,881 (26.2 % Christchurch). Most of these people were injured during clean-up (320 (14.2 %) Darfield; 622 (8.7 %) Christchurch). In both earthquakes, more females than males (1,453 vs. 803 Darfield; 4,646 vs. 2,525 Christchurch) were injured (except by masonry, damaged ground, and during clean-up); trip/fall (27.9 % Darfield; 26.1 % Christchurch) was the most common cause of injury; and soft tissue injuries (74.1 % Darfield; 70.4 % Christchurch) was the most common type of injury. This study demonstrated that where people were and their actions during and after earthquakes influenced their risk of injury.     

古魔翼龙和披羽蛇翼龙的水上起飞能力

Many of the large pterodactyloid pterosaurs come from marine sediments or inland freshwater deposits (Lawson, 1975; Bennett, 1994; Wang et al., 2005; Unwin, 2006).     

Assessment of toxicological status of a SW Mediterranean segment population of striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba) using skin biopsy

Various studies have revealed high concentrations of contaminants such as organochlorines (OCs) and heavy metals in Mediterranean cetaceans. A geographical trend of contamination (PCBs and DDTs) has been found for striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba). In this study we used a non-lethal approach (skin biopsy) to investigate bioaccumulation of OCs, including polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), DDTs, polychlorodibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorodibenzofurans (PCDFs), trace elements (Hg, Cd, Pb) and CYP1A activity (BPMO) in nine striped dolphins sampled in the Aeolian area (Sicily - Italy) in summer 2002. The arithmetic mean value of BPMO activity in this group was 43.46 AUF/g tissue/h. This value is approximately 3 times and 5 times lower, respectively, than the value found in the Ionian and in the Ligurian groups. Skin biopsies of striped dolphins emerged as a suitable material for assessing the toxicological status of the various Mediterranean groups.     

Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action

Current country-level commitments under the Paris Agreement fall short of putting the world on a required trajectory to stay below a 2°C temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Therefore, the timing of increased ambition is hugely important and as such this paper analyses the impact of both the short and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement on global emissions and economic growth. Using the hybrid TIAM-UCL-MSA model we consider the achievement of a 2°C target against a baseline of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while also considering the timing of increased ambition of the NDCs by 2030 and the impacts of cost reductions of key low-carbon technologies. We find that the rate of emissions reduction ambition required between 2030 and 2050 is almost double when the NDCs are achieved but not ratcheted up until 2030, and leads to lower levels of economic growth throughout the rest of the century. However, if action is taken immediately and is accompanied by increasingly rapid low-carbon technology cost reductions, then there is almost no difference in GDP compared to the path suggested by the current NDC commitments.

Key policy insights

• Delaying the additional action needed to achieve the 2°C target until 2030 is shown to require twice the rate of emissions reductions between 2030 and 2050.

• Total cumulative GDP over the century is lower when additional action is delayed to 2030 and therefore has an overall negative impact on the economy, even without including climate change damages.

• Increased ratcheting of the NDC commitments should therefore be undertaken sooner rather than later, starting in conjunction with the 2023 Global Stocktake.

• Early action combined with cost reductions in key renewable energy technologies can reduce GDP losses to minimal levels (<1%).

• A 2°C future with technological advancements is clearly possible for a similar cost as a 3.3°C world without these advances, but with lower damages and losses from climate change.