Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

Look out, aurorae about!

Jim Wild recounts the rationale and success of AuroraWatch, a service that alerts you when you might be able to see aurorae.     

The water-ecological problems of territorial development

The resolution of the issues related to the prevention of ecological problems having a technogenic as well as a natural character relies on a knowledge of the formation patterns of hydrological processes, which makes it possible to rationally manage water resources, ecologically transform landscapes, and minimize the consequences of socio-economic development of the territory. The theoretical foundations of landscape-hydrological analysis, combined with the principles of instrumental landscape planning, determine the system of basin management, and some methods for tackling the water-ecological problems.     

The ethnocultural component of tourism development in the Altai Republic

A characterization is provided for the recreation resources of the Altai Republic. The diversity of the national-ethnical composition of the population of the Altai Republic is determined as well as analyzing the spatial distribution of the ethnoses on its territory. The coefficients of ethnical diversity are calculated for all administrative districts. The territories with a different level of ethnical diversity and a different combination of ethnical groups are determined. The study revealed a connection of ethnical diversity and natural conditions of the territory and the concentration of separate ethnoses in definite landscapes. A characterization is provided for the ethnocultural tourism and recreation resources of the Altai Republic within the context of administrative districts. Information is provided concerning the territorial distribution of separate ethnical groups, traditional kinds of their nature management, religion, main national dishes, elements of national costume, national festivities and rites, etc. An analysis of the spatial distribution of the ethnocultural recreation resources identified promising clusters (nodes) or destinations for the arrangement of special ethnocultural tourist routes. Schematic maps are provided, which display the ethnical diversity in the districts of the region, and promising districts for the organization of ethnocultural tourist routes.     

A note on the chemical composition of lake water in the Laguna Amarga,a saline lake in Patagonia,Chile

The chemical composition of lake water in Laguna Amarga, a small, shallow, saline lake near the Torres del Paine National Park (at 51°S), Chilean Patagonia, was studied in January, 1993. The water was strongly alkaline (pH 9.4) conductivity was 71.4 mS cm^–1, and salinity was 77 g L^–1. The major ions were sodium and sulphate.     

Linking Tarim Basin sea retreat (west China) and Asian aridification in the late Eocene

The Tarim Basin in western China formed the easternmost margin of a shallow epicontinental sea that extended across Eurasia and was well connected to the western Tethys during the Paleogene. Climate modelling studies suggest that the westward retreat of this sea from Central Asia may have been as important as the Tibetan Plateau uplift in forcing aridification and monsoon intensification in the Asian continental interior due to the redistribution of the land‐sea thermal contrast. However, testing of this hypothesis is hindered by poor constraints on the timing and precise palaeogeographic dynamics of the retreat. Here, we present an improved integrated bio‐ and magnetostratigraphic chronological framework of the previously studied marine to continental transition in the southwest Tarim Basin along the Pamir and West Kunlun Shan, allowing us to better constrain its timing, cause and palaeoenvironmental impact. The sea retreat is assigned a latest Lutetian–earliest Bartonian age (ca. 41 Ma; correlation of the last marine sediments to calcareous nannofossil Zone CP14 and correlation of the first continental red beds to the base of magnetochron C18r). Higher up in the continental deposits, a major hiatus includes the Eocene–Oligocene transition (ca. 34 Ma). This suggests the Tarim Basin was hydrologically connected to the Tethyan marine Realm until at least the earliest Oligocene and had not yet been closed by uplift of the Pamir–Kunlun orogenic system. The westward sea retreat at ca. 41 Ma and the disconformity at the Eocene–Oligocene transition are both time‐equivalent with reported Asian aridification steps, suggesting that, consistent with climate modelling results, the sea acted as an important moisture source for the Asian continental interior.     

Characterizing the dispersive state of convective boundary layers for applied dispersion modeling

Estimates from semiempirical models that characterize surface heat flux, mixing depth, and profiles of temperature, wind, and turbulence are compared with observations from atmospheric field studies conducted in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. Sodar observations are compared with tower measurements at the Colorado site, for wind and turbulence profiles. The median surface heat flux, as calculated using surface-layer flux-profile relationships and an energy budget model, was consistently overestimated by 20 to 80%. Several mixing-depth models were evaluated: (1) integration of the hourly surface heat flux and friction velocity, (2) solving for the time rate of change of profiles of virtual potential temperature, and (3) an interpolation scheme used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in regulatory dispersion models. For the late afternoon, 80 to 90% of the estimates from the first and third models were within 40% of the observed values. For the morning hours after sunrise, all were less accurate. Temperature estimates from surface-layer flux-profile relationships compared well with observations within the mixed layer, but were too low for the inversion layer aloft. Wind profiles were derived using surface-layer flux-profile relationships, a windprofile power-law based on Pasquill stability category, and sodar measurements. The sodar measurements were superior to both types of model estimates. Turbulence profiles were derived from sodar measurements and from semiempirical similarity relationships based on mixing depth and Obukhov length. The scatter in the comparisons with the sodar observations is twice that seen in the comparisons with empirical profile relationships. Overall, it appears that uncertainty of as low as 20 to 30% in the characterization of the diffusion meteorology is the exception rather than the rule.On assignment from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U. S. Department of Commerce.Disclaimer: Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, it has not been subjected to Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.