一种利用气象要素场时变信息确定其空间分布状态的方法及数值模拟研究

本文将藉观测资料所包含的时间演变信息来建立要素场空间结构的问题提成一个反问题，并利用共轭方程和最优控制技术把模式初值作为控制变量来求解这个反问题；希望对由于空间测站不足而得不到合理初始场的问题以及由于用共轭方程而引起大的计算量的问题获得解决的方法。文中利用了一个边界层动力模式及其共轭方程模式进行了数值试验，结果表明：在对计算做出简化处理及较合理的测站分布下，方法能够从大大少于模式自由度的观测资料中得出比较合理的要素场初值的空间结构。     

Analyses of extreme climate events over china based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models, cli- matic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. In observations, frost days （FD） and low-temperature threshold days （TN10P） show a de- creasing trend, and summer days （SU）, high-temperature threshold days （TX90P）, heavy precipitation days （R20）, and the contribution of heavy precipitation days （P95T） show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main char- acteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986--2005 and 1961-80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble （MME） for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process pararneterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes.     

Effects of Climate Change on Evapotranspiration from Paddy Fields in Southern Taiwan

The major objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration from paddy fields. A sensitivity analysis of meteorological variables at the Kao-Hsiung station, one of meteorological stations in southern Taiwan, was carried out using the modified Penman formula. Forty-eight-year records of temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, and precipitation depth comprised the database. Trend and persistence analyses of the data were performed using the Mann–Kendall test, the Cumulative Deviation test, Linear Regression, andthe Autocorrelation Coefficient. The results indicated that only temperature and relative humidity have significant long-term trends and persistence. Two climatic scenarios, viz. (1) linear extrapolation of climatic trends and (2) the predictions of General Circulation Models (GCMs), were assumed to investigate the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration. The study revealed that evapotranspiration from paddy fields increased under both climatic scenarios studied.     

Extracting predictable components and forecasting techniques in extended-range numerical weather prediction

This paper refers to the CNOP-related algorithms and formulates the practical method and forecast techniques of extracting predictable components in a numerical model for predictable components on extended-range scales.Model variables are divided into predictable components and unpredictable chaotic components from the angle of model prediction error growth.The predictable components are defined as those with a slow error growth at a given range.A targeted numerical model for predictable components is established based on the operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center.At the same time,useful information in historical data are combined to find the fields for predictable components in the numerical model that are similar to those for the predictable components in historical data,reducing the variable dimensions in a similar judgment process and further correcting prediction errors of predictable components.Historical data is used to obtain the expected value and variance of the chaotic components through the ensemble forecast method.The numerical experiment results show that this method can effectively improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation field in the 10–30 days extended-range numerical model and has good prospects for operational applications.     

数值天气预报的创新之路——从初值问题到反问题

基于大气并非是一个确定论的系统,从信息论的视角考察了数值天气预报问题。认为表征初值和边值的数据可以视为输入信息(信息源),而数值模式则不过是一个信息变换机构,它把输入信息变换成预报结论而输出来,输出的预报结论则是未来天气状况的信息。于是预报的准确性受制于:一是输入信息所包含的输出信息的信息量,另一是信息在变换过程中丢失的信息量。从初值的形成过程揭示出了当前观测系统在一个时刻提供的数据没有包含初值所要求的全部信息,而缺失的部分或多或少的隐藏在过去的观测数据中。提为初值问题意味着只依据一个时刻的状态导致输入的信息量缺失,应考虑过去的历史数据以增加输入数据中所包含的预报量的信息。文中指出由于输出信息比输入还多的数值模式是不存在的,这样的改进带有根本性。进一步论证了数值模式的误差信息,也或多或少的隐藏在过去的历史数据中,为了充分使用过去的观测数据,本文建议改变问题的提法,不提成初值问题,提成反问题。资料同化本质上是反问题,其欠定性不应人为夸大。提成反问题的数值天气预报能充分应用过去的历史资料,将天气方法、统计方法、动力方法有机地结合在一起。对于这个反问题如何具体求解方面,在分析了业务和研究的区别,模式的普适性和针对性的统一的基础上,给出了反问题的具体解决途径。强调无需构建新模式(这是非常困难的工作),只需运行现成的模式,借助所关心的预报对象的历史数据来改造现成模式,因而是完全可行的。     

Comparative study of the kinetics and mechanisms of dissolution of carbonate minerals

The influence of pH on the rate of dissolution of various carbonates (calcite, aragonite, witherite, magnesite and dolomite) has been investigated at 25°C using a continuous fluidized bed reactor. The general rate dependence on pH observed for the simple carbonates is very similar and is in agreement with the results observed for calcite and aragonite by L.N. Plummer and coworkers. However, the rate of dissolution of magnesite is approximately four orders of magnitude lower than calcite.

For simple carbonates, the elementary steps involved in the dissolution reaction are:

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where M represents the metal ion which can be Ca, Mg and Ba. According to the stoichiometry of the three reaction steps and the thermodynamic constraints, the total forward and backward rates can be expressed as:

R_f=k₁a_H+k₂a_H2CO3^*+K₃

r_b=k_-1^aM²+^aHCO₃^-+k_-2^aHCO3^-+k_{-3^aM²+^aCO3^2-}

The rate constants (k₁, k₂, k₃ and k₋₃) determined with our experimental results for calcite, aragonite and witherite show that the dissolution rates are similar for these three minerals and that the nature of the cations does not play a significant role. The good agreement between the K_sp calculated from the measured k₃/k₋₃ ratio and the theromodynamic value suggests that our dissolution mechanism is coherent.

The rate dependence on pH of the dissolution of dolomite obeys a fractional order at low pH's and confirms previously published observations therein. However, the two-step reaction mechanism proposed does not explain the fractional reaction order observed, which is likely due to a more complex surface reaction.     

The Discovery of Natural Native Uranium and Its Significance

This study analyzed the composition and uranium valence of pitchblendes sampled from the hydrothermal Guidong and Zhuguang uranium deposits of the middle Nanling metallogenic belt, Southern China using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). A revolutionary discovery is that the uranium not only exists in the forms of tetravalent and hexavalent uranium oxides, but also occurs in the form of native uranium. This is the first discovery of the existence of native uranium in nature. It greatly helps to reveal the origin of hydrothermal mineralization of uranium, and also has great significance for studying the thermal energy, formation and evolution of the earth.     

煤中硫的地质特征和洁净煤技术的发展(英文)

媒中硫的含量大都由煤层的沉积环境控制,并取决于成煤物质是否曾受过海水影响及其受海水影响的程度。煤中硫的含量对于煤的有效利用甚为重要。这主要是因为燃煤时有相当量的二氧化硫释放到大气中造成对环境有害的酸雨。因此,煤层中硫的分布和地质特征是评估煤的品质及解决有关环境问题的一个重要参数。洁净煤技术是为了有效解决能源需求并减少用煤对环境的影响而发展起来的。它包括煤燃烧前的洁净方法（物理、化学和微生物的煤洁净法）、烟气脱硫、吸附剂喷撒和各种媒燃烧技术（流化床、气化联合循环等）。     

Hydrothermal studies in a new diamond anvil cell up to 10 GPa and from −190°C to 1200°C

The new hydrothermal diamond anvil cell (HDAC) has been designed for optical microscopy and X-ray diffraction at pressures up to 10 GPa and temperatures between –190°C and 1200°C. Laser light reffected from the top and bottom anvil faces and the top and bottom solid sample faces produce interference fringes that provide a very sensitive means of monitoring the volume of sample chamber and for observing volume and refractive index changes in solid samples due to transitions and reactions. Synchrotron radiation has been used to make X-ray diffraction patterns of samples under hydrothermal conditions. Individual heaters and individual thermocouples provide temperature control with an accuracy of ±0.5°C. Liquid nitrogen directly introduced into the HDAC has been used to reduce the sample temperature to –190°C. The - phase boundary of quartz has been used to calculate the transition pressures from measured transition temperatures. With this method we have redetermined 5 isochores of H₂O up to 850°C and 1.2 GPa at which the solution rate of the quartz became so rapid that the quartz dissolved completely before the - transition could be observed. When silica solutions were cooled, opal spherules and rods formed.     

Heat fluxes and roll circulations over the western Gulf Stream during an intense cold-air outbreak

Turbulence and heat fluxes in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) for the roll vortex regime, observed during the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) over the western Gulf Stream, have been studied. The spectral analysis suggests that cloud streets (roll vortices) are vertically organized convection in the MABL having the same roll scale for both the cloud layer and subcloud layer, and that the roll spacing is about three times the MABL depth. The roll circulations contribute significantly to the sensible (temperature) and latent heat (moisture) fluxes with importance increasing upward. Near the MABL top, these fluxes are primarily due to roll vortices which transfer both sensible heat and moisture upward in the lower half of the convective MABL. Near the MABL top, the roll circulations transfer sensible heat downward and moisture upward in the clear thermal-street region, but roll vortices influenced by evaporative cooling can transfer sensible heat upward and moisture downward in the cloud-street region. Near the cloud-top, the upward buoyancy flux due to evaporative cooling is highly related to the roll circulations near the inversion.For the lower half of the MABL, the normalized temperature flux decreases upward more rapidly than the humidity flux, which is mainly because potential temperature () increases slightly upward while humidity (q) decreases slightly upward above the unstable surface layer. The gradient production (associated with the gradient) is a source for the temperature flux in the unstable surface layer but changes to a sink in the mixed layer, while the gradient production (associated with the q gradient) acts as a source for the humidity flux in both the unstable surface and mixed layers. The results suggest that the entrainment at the MABL top might affect the budgets of temperature and humidity fluxes in the lower MABL, but not in the unstable surface layer.Caelum Research Corporation, Silver Spring, MD, 20901, U.S.A.