2003年淮河流域大水期间体积降水量的研究

针对 2 0 0 3年梅雨期淮河流域大水提出了体积降水量的概念及其计算方法 ,在计算出淮河流域和其各子流域逐日和总体积降水量的基础上 ,将体积降水量与水文站的水位和流量进行了对比分析。结果表明 :水位对累计体积降水量有较好的即时响应 ,流量对体积降水量有较好的延迟响应。另外 ,讨论了流域体积降水量的预报问题 ,用国内外数值天气预报产品和中央气象台指导预报产品 ,进行了流域体积降水量预报试验 ,并对预报结果进行了检验分析。结果表明 :在目前天气预报水平条件下 ,利用数值天气预报和中央气象台业务预报产品制作体积降水量是可行的 ,能够延长洪水预报的预见期 ;而且 ,数值天气预报产品在预报体积降水量方面有明显的优势 ,因此可以直接利用数值天气预报产品进行体积降水量的客观预报 ,为防汛工作提供重要的依据。     

安徽铜陵矿集区海底喷流沉积体系的流体包裹体微量元素对比

铜陵矿集区与铜-金(多金属)矿床有关的热液活动主要有两大体系。即与海西期海底喷流沉积有关的热液体系和与矽卡岩矿化有关的燕山期岩浆热液体系。查明这两类热液体系的流体包裹体特征对区域找矿和矿床成因研究都有实际意义。在包裹体岩相学研究基础上，应用ICP-MS技术和热爆提取方法，研究了新桥、冬瓜山、峙门口、铜官山、朝山等矿床具代表性的热液石英中流体包裹体的微量元素、稀土元素特征。结果表明，两类热液体系在流体包裹体特征上有较大的区别，在流体的微量元素和稀土元素特征方面也很不相同。海底喷流沉积体系的热液石英中流体包裹体与岩浆热液体系的相比。稀土总量较高，LREE／HREE比值较大，δEu不明显。且Mo／(W Sn)比值较高，反映流体中成矿物质的深源特征；Ga／T1、Rb／Cs大。Zr／Hf低，也不同于岩浆热液体系。     

铜陵地区老鸦岭层状钼矿床铅同位素组成研究

安徽铜陵老鸦岭矿床中二叠系大隆组(P2d)顶部的含矿(钼矿化)黑色页岩以及附近(立新煤矿)同一层位不含矿黑色页岩的实测铅同位素组成分别为：^206Pb/^204Pb20.20～22.37,^207Pb/^204Pb15.67～15.82,^208Pb/^204Pb38.47～38.60和^206Pb/204Pb18.83～20.80,^207Pb/^204Pb15.65～15.76,^208Pb/^204Pb38．84～39．22。对137Ma的放射成因Pb进行校正后的铅同位素组成表明，含矿黑色页岩和不含矿黑色页岩均与燕山晚期火成岩无关，老鸦岭含矿黑色页岩可能具沉积成因。对沉积(约250Ma)以来的放射成因Pb进行校正后的铅同位素组成表明：不含矿黑色页岩的Pb源自上地壳，而含矿黑色页岩的Pb(因而推测其他成矿金属)可能源于上地壳物质(与不含矿黑色页岩的Pb源相似)与下地壳物质的混合。     

南秦岭十里坪锑矿床成矿时代及成因的初步研究

十里坪锑矿床受赵川陆缘隆_滑构造的主滑脱拆离带的控制。矿体呈脉状赋存于韧_脆性主滑脱带上部的脆性次级断层_节理中,矿石类型主要为萤石石英辉锑矿型。围岩为太古宙_元古宙变质岩系,围岩蚀变弱。成矿流体属H2O_CO2_NaCl体系,流体包裹体盐度w(NaCleq)为3.6%～11.3%,均一温度为109～232℃,形成压力大致为800×105Pa。硫、铅同位素研究表明,矿质主要来源于变火山岩围岩;氢、氧同位素显示,成矿流体以大气降水为主,初步将该矿床定为变质岩源就地式大气降水热液矿床。矿石中萤石Sm_Nd等时线年龄为(392±24)Ma,与南秦岭北部晚古生代拗陷区热水喷流_沉积成矿时代相一致,它们都形成于秦岭微板块泥盆纪非造山裂解阶段。     

日本国内旅游业的发展及其地域特征

日本旅游业已成为国民经济的重要部门，据2002年日本交通省的统计表明，观光产业GDP已占国内生产总值的2．2％，这一数字与美国相近。但与西方国家显著不同的是，在美、英、法、意等旅游业发达国家中，国际旅游业占据举足轻重地位，而日本的旅游业却以国内旅游为主体。据日本最大旅行社JTB的统计，2002年日本旅游出行人数为34013万人次(其中出国旅游1664万人次)，而同年日本接待的外国入境游客刚刚超过500万人次。本文旨在介绍和分析日本国内旅游业的发生、发展的变化特征，以及国民不同的旅游方式和旅游地域差异。     

沙坡头没蒿和柠条叶片δ13C 和 N 含量的季节变化特征

通过对腾格里沙漠东南缘沙坡头人工固沙区油蒿和柠条叶片稳定碳同位素分辨率（△）和N 含量的测定，研究了不同种植方式下油蒿和柠条叶片△ 和 N 含量的季节变化及其关系。结果表明：在不同种植方式下，两种植物的△ 与 N 含量在不同月份之间均存在显著差异。油蒿叶片 △ 极显著高于柠条的：在不同种植方式下，油蒿单种下 △ 显著高于混种，柠条则反之。 油蒿叶片 N 含量极显著低于柠条的：不同种植方式下柠条叶片 N 含量无显著差异，而单种油蒿叶片 N 含量则显著低于混种。在 △ 与 N 含量的关系中，柠条叶片 △ 与 N 在两种生境、单种和混种下均极显著正相关，雨明柠条叶片 N 含量可以作为其 △ 与 N 含量的季节变化及其关系在不同微生境有所差异。     

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones: A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone (TC) vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds. It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall, which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution. In contrast, the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall. These led to stronger boundary layer inflow, stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall, and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall. These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall, followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC. Our study demonstrates that accurate in- itialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC. Additionally, monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.     

辽宁省精细化暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与预评估

基于辽宁省61个国家气象站1961—2020年和998个区域自动气象观测站建站至2020年逐小时、逐日降水资料,分析了辽宁省暴雨洪涝灾害主要致灾因子,计算了暴雨洪涝孕灾环境指标,完成了辽宁省暴雨洪涝灾害危险性评估。结果表明：暴雨洪涝高危险性地区主要位于丹东;暴雨洪涝灾害人口高风险区主要位于沈阳和大连市区;经济高风险区主要位于大连和盘锦市区;水稻、玉米高风险区主要位于锦州、盘锦和丹东。利用辽宁省无缝隙智能网格预报数据对2022年7月28—29日的暴雨过程灾害风险进行了预评估,发现暴雨灾害危险性高值区域主要分布在朝阳、葫芦岛以及辽宁中部。暴雨灾害可能造成的人口、经济高风险区域主要位于辽宁西部和中部地区;暴雨灾害可能造成的水稻和玉米高风险区主要位于沈阳、铁岭和朝阳北部等地区。预计高风险区主要影响人口约为449万人,经济损失约为1432万元,受影响的水稻面积约为1.028万公顷、玉米面积约为1.798万公顷。通过灾后效果检验,发现预评估模型效果良好,可在实际的暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估业务中使用。     

Characterization and Application of S-Band Polarimetric Radar and X-Band Phased Array Radar for a Tornadic Storm Event on June 16,2022

The X-band phased array radar offers faster scanning speed and higher spatial resolution compared to the S-band radar, making it capable of enhancing tornado monitoring and early warning capabilities. This study analyzed the char- acteristics and nowcasting signals of a tornado case that occurred on June 16, 2022 in the Guangzhou region. Our findings indicate that the violent contraction of rotation radius and the dramatic increase in rotation speed were important signal characteristics associated with tornado formation. The X-band phased array radar, with its high temporal and spatial resolution, provided an opportunity to capture early warning signals from polarimetric characteristics. The X-band phased array radar demonstrated noteworthy ability to identify apparent tornado vortex signature (TVS) features in a 10-minute lead time, surpassing the capabilities of the CINRAD/SA radar. Additionally, due to its higher scanning frequency, the X- band phased-array radar was capable of consistently identifying TVS with shorter intervals, enabling a more precise tracking of the tornado’s path. The application of professional radars, in this case, provides valuable insights for the monitoring of evolutions of severe local storms and even tornadoes and the issuance of early warning signals.     

Correspondence Between Astronomical Periods and Sedimentary Cycles

The term of geological cycle was used firstly inHutton's" The Earth Theory" in 1788 (Williams,1980). The geological cycles including tectonic cycles and sedimentary cycles have been describedwidely since than. Some researchers have perceivedthat the geolo…