A NEW TYPE OF TIME-SERIES-FORECASTING METHOD

By use of Chebyshev polynomial, a new method is proposed for predicting time series. It is found to be of greater accuracy, easy and convenient for use with operation run either by computer or by hand. Predicting formulae are shown with estimates of the error. In addition, calculated cases are given to show the fidelity with this method.     

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF REMOTE SENSING OF ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOL SIZE DISTRIBUTION BY COMBINED SOLAR EXTINCTION AND FORWARD SCATTERING METHOD

Combined observations of solar spectral extinction and forward angular scattering are presented. The atmospheric columnar aerosol size distributions in Beijing are retrieved from observed data and the characteristics discussed.     

非矩形网格上的车贝雪夫展开

本文指出:在任意不规则的非矩形二维网格上,若采用两步展开的做法,即首先逐行展开,再按列展开就可以对在该网格上给定的函数实现二维车贝雪夫多项式展开。这一推广在实用上有很大的意义。     

夏季印度季风环流系统与我国长江上游区域性持续暴雨的关系

本文对夏季6—8月我国长江上游地区56次区域性持续暴雨过程进行了统计分析。指出它们与夏季印度季风环流系统之间存在着密切的联系。给出暴雨期间印度—孟加拉湾地区的温压场和有关气象要素分布的平均形势,计算了暴雨日雨量与其前24h气象要素的相关系数,从而说明长江上游暴雨与印度季风环流系统的相关关系,并指出主要的季风环流影响系统和关键区。     

An application of the threshold autoregression procedure to climate analysis and forecasting

In this paper a nonlinear method of time series analysis-threshold autoregressive (TAR) model in discrete time is used. The TAR procedure consists of four parts: model building, statistical identification, parameter estimation and forecasting.The object of this study is to estimate monthly total precipitation of Shanghai and Beijing by using open loop TAR model. We can see that the trend of forecasting is in agreement with observations.     

在地面三角网中布设卫星观测站的最低精度要求

本文从地面三角网和卫星同联合平差的原理出发,讨论了对卫星网的最低精度要求。指出,为改善地面三角网而布设卫星网时,卫星观测站的最低精度主要决定于以下因素: ——地面三角网的精度; ——对地面三角网精度改善程度的要求; 一卫星观测站之间的距离。这里通过模拟计算对卫星网的最低精度要求与上列因素之间的关系作了数字分析,并建立了估算卫星网最低精度的数学模型。预期,在一般情况下,该模型的估算误差将不会超过10％。     

THE EFFECT OF ASPECT RATIO ON THE BIFURCATION PROPERTIES OF A DOUBLE PARALLEL-CONNECTION LORENZ SYSTEM

A double parallel-connection (DPC) Lorenz system is developed by performing spectrum truncation of the Galerkin series expansion of the two-dimensional Rayleigh-Benard convection equation. Analyses of the equilibrium states indicate that a convective roll stems from a flow with a given wavenumber first losing its stability for a particular aspect ratio β after a stable laminar flow gets unstable; when β has the value βc able to deprive synchronously two flows with different wavenumbers of stability, occurrences of convective rolls with different wavenumbers depend entirely on the initial conditions, in good agreement with the relevant experimental results. The calculations of the unstablized rolls show that, with a smaller β (as compared with βc), the DPC Lorenz system has the same bifurcation properties as the ordinary Lorenz system; for a moderate β, the system has very complicated periodic, quasi-periodic and phase-locking motions; for a larger β, it results in intermittent chaos and causes mean flows with different numbers of vortices to occur alternately with time. All these indicate that β has substantial effect on the two Lorenz systems coupled through parallel connection in their interaction and the results.     

浅谈芙蓉山火山洼地及其与成矿作用关系

本文阐述了该火山洼地形成的历史背景、大地构造环境、形成时地壳运动的特点及与成矿作用的关系。提出了铀及多金属的矿化特点:铅、锌成矿最早,产于边缘环状构造带外侧;铀矿化以交代充填方式产于洼地内及其边缘环状构造带上;萤石成矿最晚,以充填方式迭加于洼地边缘环状构造带上。     

强震前地震多重分形谱的异常及其物理解释：以乌什研究区为例

应用有关软件分析新疆乌针研究区地震活动时间分布的多重分形谱Ｄｑ－ｑ和ｆ（ａ）－ａ。发现两次６级强震发生前，多重分形谱发生显著变化。主要特征是对一定的ｑ区间奇异性强度因子ａ取值变宽，Ｄｑ－ｑ曲线变陡，ｆ（ａ）－ａ的左端点或右端点下降。     

滇黔桂晚海西—中印支伸展裂谷海盆地的演化

在详细研究各类喾体积的相序构成和沉积演化过程的基础上，采用动态成因及地层分析的方法，恢复了已曹受严重构造破坏的滇黔桂伸展裂谷海盆地的地层格架，根据各类等时地层界面的性质和地层序列划分出了５个沉积幕，详细解剖了各沉积幕的三维空间构成。同时以沉积体系或为单位，恢复了各沉积幕中相应阶段的构造古地理环境，将伸展裂谷盆地的演化历史划分为陆壳初始裂陷和洋壳化阶段，盆地伸展扩张阶段、洋壳俯冲和盆地分化段以及盆地