基于气候情景的岩溶断陷盆地2020—2050年植被动态变化模拟预测

岩溶断陷盆地作为我国西南部重要生态脆弱区和生态安全屏障区,生态价值不可估量.其独特的植被生态系统对气候变化十分敏感,探讨在未来全球变暖的必然趋势下断陷盆地植被变化趋势,能为进一步了解岩溶断陷盆地植被变化的气候驱动机制提供了重要依据.本研究基于2001—2016年间气象数据集和NDVI时间序列数据,利用TS非参数趋势分析...     

Numerical Study of A Generic Tidal Turbine Using BEM Optimization Methods

Three blade-geometry optimization models derived along with assumptions from the blade element momentum(BEM) approach are studied by using a steady BEM code to improve a small horizontal-axis rotor of three blades that has been previously used in experiments. The base rotor blade has linear-radially varying chord length and pitch angle, while the other three models noted as Burton, Implicit and Hansen due to their references and characteristics yield blades of non-linearly varying chord length and pitch angle. The aim is to compare these rapid models and study how assumptions embedded in them affect performance and induction factors. It is found that the model that has the least assumptions(Hansen) and which considers the blade-profile drag in its optimization procedure yields the highest power coefficient, C_P, at the optimal tip speed ratio(TSR), about 7% higher than the base one and also higher C_P at high TSR. It produces an axial induction factor distribution along the blade that is closest to the 1 D optimal value of 1/3. All optimized tangential induction-factor distributions along the blade closely vary as inverse to the square of the radial distance, while being mildly higher than the base distribution. It shows that sufficient swirl is necessary to increase power but at a level causing not too much energy loss in unnecessary swirl of the wake. At high TSR, all optimized rotors adversely produce higher thrust than the base one, but the one with most embedded assumptions(Burton) produces the highest thrust. Details of all three optimization models are given along with the distributions of the power, thrust, blade hydrodynamic efficiency and induction factors.     

三峡水库影响下长江中下游水文干旱演变及对气象干旱的响应

利用1960-2016年长江流域183个气象站逐月气温和降水数据以及干流3个水文站逐月径流资料,采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和标准化径流指数(SRI)分析三峡水库蓄水运行前后长江中下游宜昌、汉口和大通站水文干旱的多时间尺度演变以及对气象干旱的响应特征.结果表明:(1)三峡水库运行后下游各站冬春季旱情明显趋缓,而秋季干旱状况略有加重;水库蓄水后各站中旱和重旱发生频率均呈减少趋势,其中中旱减幅明显,而特旱发生频率则总体表现为增加趋势;(2)三峡水库蓄水后3个站平均干旱历时的变幅相对较小,而干旱烈度和烈度峰值的均值增幅较大;同时,各站短时间尺度(1和3个月)干旱特征变量的变幅总体呈现沿程递增趋势,而长时间尺度(6和12个月)干旱特征变量的变幅整体表现为沿程递减趋势;(3)水库蓄水后各站短时间尺度SRI与SPEI的相关性减小,但相关性随时间尺度增加而迅速增强,12个月时间尺度的相关系数达到最大并略高于蓄水前;在年内相关性上,蓄水后各站短时间尺度SRI与SPEI的相关系数明显减小,冬季表现尤为突出,而长时间尺度的相关系数则略有增加;(4)水库影响下不同时间尺度宜昌站水文干旱滞后于气象干旱平...     

中国数字地震台网记录的苏门答腊-安达曼地震激发的地球球型自由振荡的检测

利用中国数字地震台网 （CDSN）改造后的7个台站的VHZ波形资料, 提取了2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼地震激发的0S2~0S54地球球型自由振荡,并与地球初步参考模型(PREM)的理论自由振荡频率进行了对比,发现与PREM模型预测的球型自由振荡周期符合得很好. 观测的该地震激发的0S2,0S3,0S4, 2S1和1S2振型自由振荡有明显的频谱分裂现象. 特别是2S1振型,是继Rosat等之后的第二次报道不叠加的情况下观测到的这种振型. 根据该地震的总体震源机制,试算了不同的地震矩,模拟了该地震0S2振型在CDSN 7个台上的自由振荡振幅, 并与记录资料进行了比较,得到该地震的地震矩可达1023Nmiddot;m;本文发现地球自由振荡记录包含了大量震源机制和地震位置的信息, 可用于地震震源破裂参数的精细研究.       

慢速-超慢速扩张西南印度洋中脊研究进展

西南印度洋中脊具有慢速—超慢速扩张速率和斜向扩张的特征,是全球洋中脊系统研究的热点之一,也是研究海底构造环境、热液活动、地幔深部过程及其动力学机制的重要区域。在前人工作的基础上较为详细地介绍了西南印度洋中脊的研究历史、地形划分、扩张速率及其构造特征,归纳了西南印度洋中脊热液活动及岩石地球化学特征,探讨了超慢速扩张洋脊和超镁铁质岩系热液系统的特殊性,并认为超慢速扩张洋脊广泛暴露的地幔岩及其蛇纹石化作用、超镁铁质岩系热液系统以及热液硫化物成矿作用是西南印度洋中脊今后研究的重要内容。     

数字化城市管理新模式实现中的空间数据建设

空间数据在数字化城市管理新模式实现中不仅起了十分重要的支撑和保障作用,而且大大提升了该模式的应用功效.本文介绍了新模式中空间数据的类型及基本质量要求,分析了专题数据、地理空间框架数据和元数据建设的技术方法、质量控制措施以及存在的问题,提出了相应的对策建议.     

若尔盖地区典型湿地NDVI动态特点分析

本文基于NOAA/AVHRR,将若尔盖地区典型湿地与草地的归一化植被指数(NDVI)进行对比研究的结果表明,湿地NDVI的年变化特点与草地NDVI的年变化特点存在明显差别.其中,多时相NDVI样本法,湿地NDVI年的变化为单峰值型,草地NDVI为双峰值型;夏季草地与湿地NDVI的差值(△NDVI)较大,可以作为湿地的主要判识因子;冬半年△NDVI 很小.NDVI月最大值法,各月的△NDVI均较小,夏半年△NDVI为双峰值型.上述特点与当地月降水量呈现相关性.     

Quantifying the Influence of Random Errors in Turbulence Measurements on Scalar Similarity in the Atmospheric Surface Layer

The influence of random errors in turbulence measurements on scalar similarity for temperature, water vapour, \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), and \(\hbox {NH}_{3}\) is investigated using two eddy-covariance datasets collected over a lake and a cattle feedlot. Three measures of scalar similarity, namely, the similarity constant in the flux–variance relationship, the correlation coefficient between two scalars and the relative transport efficiency, are examined. The uncertainty in the similarity constant \(C_{s}\) in the flux–variance relationship resulting from random errors in turbulence measurements is quantified based on error propagation analyses and a Monte-Carlo sampling method, which yields a distribution instead of a single value for \(C_{s}\). For different scalars, the distributions of \(C_{s}\) are found to significantly overlap, implying that scalars are transported similarly under strongly unstable conditions. The random errors in the correlation coefficients between scalars and the relative transport efficiencies are also quantified through error propagation analyses, and they increase as the atmosphere departs from neutral conditions. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients between three scalars (water vapour, \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), and \(\hbox {NH}_{3}\)) are statistically different from unity while the relative transport efficiencies are not, which highlights the difference between these two measures of scalar similarity. The results suggest that uncertainties in these measures of scalar similarity need to be quantified when using them to diagnose the existence of dissimilarity among different scalars.     

基于对流尺度集合预报的飑线结构特征模拟与改善

对流尺度集合预报是研究飑线等强对流天气的新方向。当前对飑线系统结构的研究主要采用卫星和雷达资料结合高分辨率确定性预报的方法,而本文从集合预报技术的角度分析飑线结构特征。针对2014年7月30日中国江淮地区的一次强飑线过程,利用WRF模式开展了对流尺度集合预报试验,采用概率匹配平均法对集合预报结果进行综合处理,重点考察集合预报对飑线结构特征的模拟能力。结果表明:对流尺度集合预报能够模拟出飑线系统的基本结构特征。集合平均和概率匹配平均法相比控制预报而言,对飑线回波、热力场、动力场和微物理量场结构有明显的改善作用。同时模拟出了飑线系统近地面冷池和环境垂直风切变的相互作用,与RKW理论相一致。概率匹配平均法在回波强度上较集合平均更接近实况,应用于对流尺度集合预报研究极端天气事件具有指示意义。     

泸定县泥石流灾害特征及降水因子分析

泸定县地质环境条件复杂,新构造运动活跃,是泥石流灾害高易发区.在对前期多次泥石流灾害发生后的灾后调查了解的基础上,分析泸定县泥石流灾害特征,并利用历史地质灾害记录与历史气象资料,研究泸定县泥石流灾害发生与降水的关系.结果表明：（1）泸定县境内泥石流灾害不仅具有分布广、发生频率高、危害重等特点,而且,具有群发性、夜发性、周期性特征.（2）泥石流发生与当日降雨量、短时强降雨、前期有效降雨量关系密切;对6天及以下累积有效降水量36mm、8～10天累积有效降水量49mm、11～14天累积有效降水量101.6mm以上等前期降水条件较为敏感,前期有效累计雨量、天数增加,当日激发雨量、雨强逐步缩小,随着激发雨量增大、小时雨强越强,泥石流灾害将发生质变.当前期有效降雨不明显,泥石流爆发需要较强的激发雨量。