Recovery Factors of Oil Resources in China

This paper provides a new method to estimate recovery factors of oil resources. The China National Petroleum Assessment (2003–2007) (CNPA 2007) evaluates in-place oil resources and applies the recovery factor (RF) to estimate recoverable oil resources. The RF of oil resources plays an important role in the CNPA 2007. Based on the geological features, 24 types of oil assessment units are defined, such as the Mesozoic rift unit, the Mesozoic and Cenozoic foreland unit, etc. Through the recovery factor statistics of oil reserves (discovered) in different accumulations, as well as the potential analyses of enhanced petroleum recovery, appropriate RF valuing standards of oil resources (discovered and undiscovered) in different assessment units are developed. Calculation methods of oil resource RFs are established, including the appraisal standards, scoring, and calculation steps of oil resource RFs. Through the case studies, the valuing and appraisal standards of oil resource RFs are verified. Robust appraisal standards allow the RF method to be a valuable tool to effective assessment of China’s recoverable oil resources.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

关于前兆台阵的概念及地下流体前兆台阵建设的方案讨论

中国地震局在“十五”期间把建设地震前兆台阵列入计划之中,为了使该前兆台阵建设具有创造性,科学性与实用性,笔者提出了前兆台阵的概念与科学目标,建设台阵的科学思路与地下流体台站建设的建议,以便与同行专家进行讨论。     

A statistical analysis of gamma-ray bursts based on the beaming model

We assume that gamma-ray bursts come from relativistic beaming in random directions, with the bursts being standard candles in their own rest frames and following a power-law distribution, and that the rate of occurrence is a constant in the comoving frame of the Ω = 1, Λ = 0 Friedmann universe. This model is very sensitive to the beaming velocity. For a Lorentz factor Γ < 10 and a power-law index n < 1.0 our calculated statistics agree with the BATSE data of weak bursts and the PVO data of strong bursts.     

三峡井网地下流体动态在水库蓄水前后的变化

在系统分析长江三峡诱发地震地下水动态监测井网2001～2002年8个井台16个测项的地下流体正常动态及其影响因素的基础上，调查研究了井网外围50km范围内两个中等地震震例，对比分析了2003年三峡水库蓄水前后各测项动态的变化。发现水库蓄水对三峡井网地下流体动态的影响是局部的．推测三峡库首区近期诱发中等以上水库地震的可能性不大；同时分析了受水库蓄水影响测项的异常特征及其机理，认为深入研究此类问题对推进地震监测与预报科学的发展有重要意义。     

基于L-M算法的BP神经网络分类器

以TM图像为例,讨论了基于Levenberg-Marquardt(L-M)算法的BP神经网络分类器及其在遥感图像分类中的应用。LM算法是梯度下降法与高斯牛顿法的结合,由于利用了近似的二阶导数信息,LM算法比梯度法快。就训练次数及准确度而言,LM算法明显优于变学习率法的BP算法。     

广东三水盆地古近系心组生油层的元素地球化学特征

沉积物的元素地球化学特征是对沉积盆地水体环境以及古气候条件变化的响应。本文根据元素（Al、Fe、Mg、Ca、K、Na、P、V、Ni、Co、Cr、Cu、Zn、Sr、Ba、Cd、Li、Mn、Pb、Ti）的含量及其比值（Al/Ti、Fe/Mn、Sr/Ba、Mg/Ca、Sr/Ca、Na/Ca、V/Cr、Ni/Co、Ni/V）的变化，对三水盆地古近系心组红岗段生油层的沉积条件进行了系统分析。心组红岗段下部（亚段A）表现为较稳定的地球化学特征。各元素丰度及其比值指示这一时期陆源输入持续较高、且物源组成变化不大。由于海水入侵的影响，湖盆水体盐度相对较高，底部水体以弱氧化条件为主，O₂-H₂S界面位于水/沉积物界面附近。红岗段中上部（亚段B、C）的元素地球化学特征变化较为频繁且幅度很大，反映古气候和湖盆沉积条件的迅速变迁。在潮湿气候条件下，沉积物的地球化学特征表现为以Al、Ti为代表的外源元素含量及其比值较高，而Mg、Ca等盆内化学沉积元素含量较低。古氧气指标指示底部水体为还原环境，有利于有机质保存。因而，相应于较高的有机碳含量。在间歇性干旱时期，陆源输入减少，外源元素含量及其比值显著降低。随着蒸发作用的加强，水体盐度加大，内源元素丰度以及Mg/Ca、Sr/Ba、Sr/Ca和Na/Ca比值大幅度上升。底部水体为氧化环境，O₂-H₂S界面多位于水/沉积物界面或沉积物中。上述两种气候条件在红岗段中上部沉积时期交替出现。红岗段沉积后期由于淡水的长期输入，湖水出现逐渐淡化趋势。     

新疆东部地区夏季暴雨的分析

利用1961-2000年共40年新疆东部地区6站夏季降雨量资料、NCEP1°×1°的6小时再分析资料和常规探测等资料，对我国新疆东部地区夏季暴雨的天气气候特征、环流形势、影响天气系统及其暴雨形成的机制进行分析研究，并给出典型个例清晰的物理概念模型，提供了有参考意义的前兆依据。     

地表过程与人类活动对硅产出影响的研究进展

硅元素是地球第二大组成元素,深刻影响着地表物质循环,是陆海相互作用研究、全球碳循环研究的关键元素之一.从自然风化、生物过程和人类活动3个方面综述了国内外有关地表过程对硅产出影响的研究进展,重点分析了生物过程和人类活动在硅生物地球化学循环过程中的作用.综合分析指出,应着重开展生物参与下原生/次生硅酸盐矿物风化速率的研究,重视高等植物在区域硅循环中的作用;富营养化与筑坝对于河流硅的滞留都十分重要,因筑坝产生的水库清水下泄在中下游河道产生的潜在效应很可能对河口硅输入产生重要的影响.应采用地球化学示踪技术,加强这方面的定量研究、模型研究、过程研究以及系统的综合性研究,特别是对流域地表过程的改变以及与筑坝、富营养化过程的联合作用,应进行深入的多学科交叉综合研究.