Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi,China

The growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions.     

2—[2‘—（6—甲氧基—苯并噻唑）—偶氮]—1,8—二羟基萘—3,6—二磺酸的合成及？…

合成了新的杂环偶氮变色酸类试剂--2-[2'-(6-甲氧基-苯并噻唑)-偶氮]-1,8-二羟基萘-3,6-二磺酸,并系统探讨了在pH 4.5的邻苯二甲酸氢钾-NaOH介质中显色试剂与钛的显色反应特性.结果表明,在溴化十六烷基吡啶存在下,试剂与Ti(Ⅳ)形成2:1的络合物,显色反应15 min完全并至少稳定4 h,最大吸收波长为670 nm,表观摩尔吸光系数达1.67×105 L.mol-1.cm-1,钛的质量浓度在0～400 μg/L时符合比尔定律.用拟定的方法测定了硅砖等标准物质中的Ti(Ⅳ),所得结果与标准值的相对误差均小于4%,RSD(n=5)小于3.5%.     

2-[2′-(6-甲氧基-苯并噻唑)-偶氮]-1,8-二羟基萘-3,6-二磺酸的合成及其与钛的显色反应

合成了新的杂环偶氮变色酸类试剂———２［２′（６甲氧基苯并噻唑）偶氮］１,８二羟基萘３,６二磺酸,并系统探讨了在ｐＨ４．５的邻苯二甲酸氢钾ＮａＯＨ介质中显色试剂与钛的显色反应特性。结果表明,在溴化十六烷基吡啶存在下,试剂与Ｔｉ（Ⅳ）形成２∶１的络合物,显色反应１５ｍｉｎ完全并至少稳定４ｈ,最大吸收波长为６７０ｎｍ,表观摩尔吸光系数达１．６７×１０５Ｌ·ｍｏｌ－１·ｃｍ－１,钛的质量浓度在０～４００μｇ／Ｌ时符合比尔定律。用拟定的方法测定了硅砖等标准物质中的Ｔｉ（Ⅳ）,所得结果与标准值的相对误差均小于４％,ＲＳＤ（ｎ＝５）小于３．５％。     

华北北部地区3次强震前地下流体异常场及其形成与演化机理

通过系统地收集与整理１９８９年１０月１９日大同－阳高Ｍｓ６．１、１９９６年５月３日包头西Ｍｓ６．４与１９９８年１月１０日张北－尚义Ｍｓ６．２地震前地下流体异常资料,对比与综合分析了异常的形态特征、空间展布特征、时间变化特征与时空演化特征,进而提出华北北部地区地下流体中短期异常场的形成与演化机理。研究结果表明,中期异常场是区域构造活动的强化产生了地下流体的短期异常场,震源体发展到临震阶段时在震中区生     

张北6.2级地震地形变前兆演化特征

分析了张北6.2级地震前后华北地区水准、GPS、重力、定点形变、流动形变、地应变观测资料及前兆的演化过程。结果表明,深大构造对背景场起着控制及传递的作用;震中区位于经历了剧烈地壳运动后近年处于相对平静的地区;背景场与前兆异常动态过程的密切配合,是作出正确震情判定的关键;前兆异常在震后的新发展,在震后趋势预测中有重要作用。     

New Phenotypes of Limnocythere inopinata from Lakes in Badain Jaran Desert,Northern China

正Objective Limnocythere inopinata(Baird, 1843) is an ostracod widely distributed in recent non-marine waters and in Quaternary sediments, where it comprises various phenotypes(Yin et al., 1999; Zhang et al., 2015). Based on the nodation patterns, five phenotypes were described in previous publications, namely, the unnoded, the phenotype with one node in the postero-ventral part of the valve, one with two nodes in the antero-ventral and postero-ventral parts of the valve, another with three nodes in the antero-ventral, postero-ventral and postero-dorsal parts of the valve,     

Acoustic evaluation of cementing quality using obliquely incident ultrasonic signals

Ultrasonic cement bond logging is a widely used method for evaluating cementing quality. Conventional ultrasonic cement bond logging uses vertical incidence and cannot accurately evaluate lightweight cement bonding. Oblique incidence is a new technology for evaluating cement quality with improved accuracy for lightweight cements. In this study, we simulated models of acoustic impedance of cement and cementing quality using ultrasonic oblique incidence, and we obtained the relation between cementing quality, acoustic impedance of cement, and the acoustic attenuation coefficient of the A0-mode and S0-mode Lamb waves. Then, we simulated models of different cement thickness and we obtained the relation between cement thickness and the time difference of the arrival between the A0 and A0′ modes.     

山西中条山北麓断裂夏县段新构造运动

通过分析夏县段中条山北麓山麓剥蚀面上的黄土地层,认为山麓剥蚀面形成于2.4 Ma以前。与邻近盆地内钻孔的研究成果对比,得到中条山北麓断裂第四纪以来的垂直活动幅度约700 m,抬升速率为0.29 mm/a。GPS测量得到断层将末次冰期极盛期形成的冲沟阶地垂直错断7 m,垂直活动速率为0.28~0.5 mm/a。探槽揭示,距今2 万年以来断层有四次活动--距今8000 年之前、距今4100 年前后、距今3100 年和距今720 年以后。断距分别为大于2m、0.6m、1.55 m和0.25 m。断层活动速率为0.22~0.55 m/a。     

地下水对震源体应力、应变场的影响——以唐山地震为例

通过数值模拟 ,研究渗流场和应力场相互作用 ,了解在震源区地下水对应力场和应变场的影响。结果表明 ,岩石的抗剪强度及摩擦阻力随孔隙压力的增加而降低 ,孔隙压力使应变分布发生变化 ,断层及其附近剪切应力升高。地下水的这些效应可能与地震震源过程有关