中国地热研究的进展与展望(1995～2014)

地热是主要地球物理场之一,地热能是地球的本土能源。李四光在20世纪60年代开创了我国地热科学。到90年代,学科体系基本建立。在过去20年里,我国地热研究得到了进一步深化和拓展。本文从大地热流、岩石圈热结构、地热系统、油气盆地地热、矿山地热、天然气水合物以及气候变化等方面回顾地热研究代表性的创新进展,并对深层地热、海洋地热、环境地热等研究方向作了展望。本文认为,过去20年我国地热研究成果丰硕,国际影响力得到提高,未来发展势头强劲。在经历了由浅入深,从今到古的成长之后,地热研究还将不断拓展领域,为我国地球科学,特别是能源与环境安全做出更大贡献。     

BCC S2S模式对亚洲夏季风准双周振荡预报评估

利用1994-2013年ERA-Interim及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对国家气候中心（BCC）次季节到季节尺度模式（S2S）1994-2013年的回报试验数据进行亚洲季风区准双周振荡（QBWO）预报能力评估,并诊断模式预报误差来源。结果表明:BCC S2S模式对QBWO的预报能力随着预报提前时间的增长而降低,9 d后预报技巧明显减弱,其周期、传播特征和强度出现误差;在提前9 d预报中,印度洋地区QBWO对流-环流系统结构松散,信号偏弱,对流向东传播,这与印度洋平均态的预报误差有关,夏季对流平均态低层水汽场在西太平洋和阿拉伯海较强,而东印度洋、孟加拉湾一带偏弱;西北太平洋地区QBWO具有向西北传播的特征,但强度偏弱,可能原因是预报低估了QBWO对流西北侧低层涡度的超前信号,经涡度方程诊断发现,地转涡度平流正贡献微弱,相对涡度平流在对流西北侧引发负涡度,从而减弱了对流西北侧由低层正涡度引发的有利条件。     

汉江上游3200-2800aBP特大古洪水重建研究(英文)

Palaeoflood hydrology study is a leading subject in global change study. Through field investigation in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River, palaeoflood slackwater deposits(SWD) were found in the bedrock gorges of the Yunxi reach. The results of field observation, laboratory analysis including particle-size distribution and magnetic susceptibility, and comparison with modern flood deposits, the SWD were identified as the most typical Holocene palaeoflood deposits of the Hanjiang River. By using stratigraphic correlation and OSL dating method, the palaeoflood event was dated to be 3200–2800 a BP at the turn from the middle to late Holocene. According to the palaeoflood peak stage and hydraulic parameters, the peak discharges of the palaeoflood were reconstructed as 48,830–51,710 m3/s by using the slope-area method. At same time, the flood peak discharges of 1983, 2005 and 2010 severe floods were reconstructed with the same method and hydraulic parameters in the same cross section. The error between the reconstructed and gauged discharges was 1.99%–4.21%. This showed that the reconstructed palaeoflood peak discharges were reliable. The flood peak discharge-frequency relationship at 10,000-year time scale was established by a combination of the gauged flood, historical flood and palaeoflood hydrological data. These results are very important for hydraulic engineering and flood mitigation on the Hanjiang River.     

西安市冬季采暖气象条件分析和预报方法初探

对西安市冬季采暖气象条件和预报方法进行了研究。根据国家采暖规范结合西安冬季采暖的实际，首先对西安1951年7月到2003年6月历年的逐日气象资料进行了详尽的分析，比较了国家采暖日期相关规范和规定中的3种不同的统计方法，确定了符合西安特点的采暖初终日。充分利用T213数值预报产品，对2002年和2003年两个冬半年的逐日850hPa和500hPa各时次各类气象要素及与之对应的西安各时次实况的气温作了相关分析，建立了回归方程，提出了采暖期及其逐日气温预报。     

Deep Structure and Dynamics of Passive Continental Margin from Shelf to Ocean of the Northern South China Sea

To study the deep dynamic mechanism leading to the difference in rifting pattern and basin structure from shelf to oceanic basin in passive continental margin,we constructed long geological sections across the shelf,slope and oceanic basin using new seismic data.Integrated gravity-magnetic inversion and interpretation of these sections were made with the advanced dissection method.Results show that the basement composition changes from intermediate-acid intrusive rocks in the sheff to intermediate-basic rocks in the slope.The Moho surface shoals gradually from 31 km in the sheff to 22.5 km in the uplift and then 19 km in the slope and finally to 13 km in the oceanic basin.The crust thickness also decreases gradually from 30 km in the northern fault belt to 9 km in the oceanic basin.The crustal stretching factor increases from the shelf toward the oceanic basin,with the strongest extension under the sags and the oceanic basin.The intensity of mantle upwelling controlled the style of basin structures from sheff to oceanic basin.In the Zhu 1 depression on the shelf,the crust is nearly normal,the brittle and cold upper crust mainly controlled the fault development;so the combinative grabens with single symmetric graben are characteristic.In the slope,the crust thinned with a large stretching factor,affected by the mantle upwelling.The ductile deformation controlled the faults,so there developed an asymmetric complex graben in the Baiyun (白云) sag.     

The relationship between extension of lower crust and displacement of the shelf break

With deep sea petroleum explorations become more and more popular,some geological phenomena have emerged:extension of lower crust and upper crust is inhomogeneous;shelf break has been moved rapidly after crustal stretching.These geological phenomena are important to the continental margin evolution.To investigate the thinning of the whole crust and the contribution of the upper crust versus the lower crust to the crustal stretching since the Cenozoic,we calculated the stretching factors of the upper and the lower crust based on the 13 seismic lines in the Baiyun Sag from CNOOC.The results indicated that the whole crustal thickness decreases seaward while the whole crustal stretching factor increases from shelf to slope.Our calculations showed that the lower crustal stretching factor is higher than that of the upper crust in the Baiyun Sag.In the Cenozoic,deformation of the Baiyun Sag is controlled mainly by ductile shearing rather than brittle shearing.Based on the numerical modeling,we can conclude the initial crust in the Baiyun Sag is thermally attenuated.The stretching factor(β)of the lower crust increases from the north to the south of the continental margin,indicating two stretching centers:the Baiyun Sag and the Liwan Sag.The geometry of the shelf break and theβisoline trap have the similar trend in 23.8 and 13.8 Ma,both located in the intense deforming zone of the lower crust,and therefore we conclude the stretching and flowing of the lower crust cause the displacement of the shelf break before and after 23.8 Ma.     

汉江上游晏家棚段全新世古洪水研究

通过对汉江上游详尽的野外考察,在湖北郧县晏家棚河段全新世黄土—古土壤地层中发现3层典型古洪水滞流沉积物。在沉积学的基础上,使用OSL技术断代,确定3期特大洪水事件分别在1 000~900 a BP,1 800~1 600 a BP和3 200~2 800 a BP期间发生。采用"古洪水SWD尖灭点高程法"确定这3期古洪水事件的洪峰水位介于176.20~176.73 m。运用Arc GIS耦合HEC-RAS水力模型,推求这3期古洪水事件的洪峰流量介于53 770~55 950 m3/s,并从多种角度验证了该模型计算结果的科学性和合理性。将此结果与实测洪水和历史洪水资料接续,构成万年尺度洪水水文数据序列,得到汉江上游晏家棚河段万年一遇和千年一遇洪水的流量分别为59 100和45 200m3/s。采用HEC-RAS模型对研究河段进行古洪水模拟,方法科学,结果可靠。将该河段洪水水文数据序列有效地延长到万年尺度,极大地提高了设计洪水的可靠性。     

山西天镇晚白垩世——新恐龙动物君及其地层意义

新发现的山西天镇恐龙动物群是以巨龙类（titanosaurids）和甲龙类（ankylosaurids）为代表，含有鸭嘴龙类及兽脚类化石，其中一具何存较完整的巨龙类骨架（已获骨骼近70%）包括3个甲龙头骨及其头后骨骼.该动物君化石相当丰富，经与蒙古、印度、老挝、加拿大、美国和阿根廷等国晚白垩世恐龙动物君的比较我，实属晚白垩世较为罕见的一新恐龙动物群。由于天镇恐龙动物群的发现不仅将原划归始新世的灰泉堡组的时代归属晚白垩世，而且对白垩系划分和探讨恐龙的分类、演化、迁徒、动物地理区及其绝灭等方面的研究均具有重要意义。     

智能潜器的集成仿真系统

本文介绍了智能潜器集成仿真系统的硬、软件结构．通过这一系统所展示的水下虚拟仿真环境能够在研究和开发智能潜器的控制体系结构、潜器载体的水动力学、信息融合和目标识别等工作中发挥巨大作用     

陕西省夏季降水量的长期变化趋势

对榆林、西安、汉中夏季降水量的历年变化进行分析，并用灰色拓扑方法作了趋势预测。分析表明，关中的初夏旱和伏旱突出，半湿润地区的西安夏季多年平均降水量比半干旱地区的榆林还少。自１９５１年以来，陕西省夏季降水量的总趋势是：关中、陕南有下降趋势，而陕北下降趋势不明显。另外，关中、陕南的夏季降水还存在连续几年多雨或连续几年少雨的时段，而陕北则呈现出少雨年和多雨年交替出现的高频振荡。