关于促进国内气象企业健康发展的思考

近年来,中国气象局适应气象服务体制改革,逐步开放气象信息服务市场、鼓励社会企业参与气象仪器研发生产、规范防雷检测资质管理,培育气象服务市场主体,促进气象产业有序发展,并于2020年进一步开放气象服务市场,降低门槛条件、简化申请程序,为国内商业气象市场注入了政策活力。国内气象相关企业如雨后春笋般的蓬勃发展,成为推动我国气象服务行业高质量发展的重要力量。     

环渤海葡萄涝渍指标构建及风险评估

以中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区为研究对象, 利用1980—2019年研究区域内303个气象站逐日气象资料、葡萄发育期资料和葡萄涝渍灾情资料, 基于相对湿润度方法构建葡萄逐日涝渍指数M5i, 以历史灾情反演和灾变过程解析为主线, 采用正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t分布区间估计等方法, 构建适用于中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区的葡萄涝渍灾害等级指标体系, 利用信息扩散理论方法, 计算区域内各站点的葡萄涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明: 构建的葡萄涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况, 指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性; 葡萄同一发育阶段的涝渍灾害发生范围随灾害等级的加大而缩小, 不同发育阶段重度涝渍灾害发生范围随着发育进程的推进逐渐增大; 葡萄萌芽-新梢生长期和开花坐果期发生涝渍灾害的风险相对较低, 果实膨大期和着色成熟期为葡萄涝渍灾害发生的高风险时期; 葡萄涝渍灾害高风险区域主要位于山东东南部、辽宁东南部、河北东北部。     

The transport of CO2-induced warming into the ocean: an analysis of simulations by the OSU coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

The OSU global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model has been used to investigate a 2xCO₂-induced climate change. A previous analysis of the simulated 2xCO₂–1xCO₂ temperature differences showed that the CO₂-induced warming penetrated into the ocean and thereby caused a delay in the equilibration of the climate system with an estimatede-folding time of 50–75 years. The objective of the present study is to determine by what pathways and through which physical processes the simulated ocean general circulation produces the penetration of the CO₂-induced warming into the ocean.A global-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the ocean gains heat at a rate of 3 W/m² due to the CO₂ doubling, and that this heat penetrates downward into the ocean predominantly through the reduction in the convective overturning. A zonal-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the surface warming increases from the tropics toward the midlatitudes of both hemispheres and gradually penetrated into the deeper ocean, with a greater penetration in the subtropics and midlatitudes than in the equatorial region. The zonal-mean heat budget analysis also shows that the CO₂-induced warming of the ocean occurs predominantly through the down-ward transport of heat, with the meridional heat flux being only of secondary importance. In the tropics the penetration of the CO₂-induced heating is minimized by the upwelling of cold water. In the subtropics the heating is transported down-ward more readily by the downwelling existing there. In the high latitudes the suppressed convection plays the dominant role in the downward penetration of the CO₂-induced heating. The latter result should be considered as tentative, however, as the ocean component of the coupled model employed a prescribed surface salinity field and did not include the mechanism of brine rejection when sea water freezes into sea ice.     

全球ITCZ的气候特征研究

热带辐合带(ITCZ)是大气环流的重要成员之一,它的活动与变化不仅对于热带天气,而且对于中纬度地区的旱涝以及全球大气环流的变化都有重大影响。ITCZ最初着重于用风场资料来研究,但由于海洋上测站稀少,往往难于精确地确定。但在这种热带辐合区内一般都伴有对流云雨的发展,所以卫星成为观测ITCZ的很好工具。利用早期卫星测得的云反射的亮度或平均云量研究ITCZ已有不少的工作。     

青藏高原地区地-气系统的辐射平衡特征

本文利用1982年8月—1983年7月青藏高原热源野外考察期间的Nimbus7卫星观测资料,分析了高原及其邻近地区行星反照率、大气顶的射出长波辐射和地-气系统辐射平衡的区域分布及季节变化特征以及它们对天气气候的影响。同时配合同期的地面辐射观测资料,讨论了卫星资料与地面实测资料间的相互关系,为探索卫星资料的应用等作了尝试。     

蒙特卡罗不确定性分析在O3模拟中的初步应用

利用蒙特卡罗不确定性分析方法,分析了嵌套网格空气质量模式系统(NAQPMS/IAP)中154个模式输入变量不确定性对臭氧模拟的影响,量化了模式在北京奥运会期间臭氧模拟的不确定性,并确定出了主要不确定性因子。结果表明:(1)在奥运会期间(2008年8月8日～2008年8月24日),北京城区臭氧模拟的平均不确定性为19ppb,不确定性存在明显的日变化特征,白天不确定性大,夜间不确定性小。(2)在白天,北京城区近地层臭氧模拟最重要的不确定性来源是局地前体物排放,其次是NO2光解系数、风向、北京周边前体物排放和垂直扩散系数。另外,地面约150m以上,对臭氧模拟影响最大的不确定性因子是风向和北京周边前体物排放;夜间,北京城区近地层臭氧模拟的最大不确定性来源是局地NOx排放和垂直扩散系数。     

1965-2007年沙澧河流域潜在蒸散量变化趋势

利用1965-2007年沙澧河流域12个气象站的逐月气候资料,采用FAO推荐的彭曼-孟蒂斯公式计算潜在蒸散量,分析了沙澧河流域43 a潜在蒸散量的变化趋势,并在ArcGIS环境下通过Spline插值法分析了该流域潜在蒸散量空间分布特征,此外还对造成潜在蒸散量变化的主要气候影响因子进行了探讨。结果表明:从空间分布来看,潜在蒸散量年和四季从西北到东南基本呈下降趋势。从时间变化来看,年潜在蒸散量略呈下降趋势,但变化不明显;冬、春季呈增加趋势,年际变化率分别为0.189 mm.a-1和0.540 mm.a-1,夏、秋季呈减小趋势,其中夏季减少尤其明显,年际变化率为-1.354 mm.a-1。日照是影响年和夏、秋季潜在蒸散量变化的主导因素,而气温是影响冬、春季潜在蒸散量变化的主导因素。     

对流云团资料在局地暴雨数值模拟预报中的应用

使用ＰＳＵ／ＮＣＡＲ中尺度数值模式,对两次暴雨实例进行了数值模拟试验。结果表明：相对应用地面及高空常规资料作为初始场的控制试验而言,就用实时卫星对流云团资料增强局部湿度场的敏感性试验,可使暴雨及邻近地区对流层中低层气流辐合上升运动增强,     

The numerical simulation on the PBL structure and its evolution over small-scale concave terrain

A high-resolution, nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional diagnostic PBL model over small-scale concave terrain was established in this paper. A two-dimensional prognostic model was developed based on the diagnostic model. The hydrostatic approximation was abandoned and the simple energy (E-ε) closure scheme was used in both mod-els. Using the two models, characteristics of PBL structure and its evolution were fully studied. The main characteris-tic of the PBL is the circulation, and it fairly affects the distribution of the pollutant in the pit.     

Investigating the Changes in Air Pollutant Emissions over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in February from 2014 to 2019 through an Inverse Emission Method

In recent years, China has implemented several measures to improve air quality. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region is one area that has suffered from the most serious air pollution in China and has undergone huge changes in air quality in the past few years. How to scientifically assess these change processes remain the key issue in further improving the air quality over this region in the future. To evaluate the changes in major air pollutant emissions over this region, this paper employs ens...