Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951–2002

Summary Monthly precipitation trends of 160 stations in China from 1951–2002 have been analysed and interpolated. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to examine the monthly precipitation data. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95, and 99 percent confidence levels were detected for numerous stations. The number, distribution, and direction of the trends varied from month to month.The detected trends were spatially interpolated by applying the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation trends gives a better understanding of climatic changes or variations in China during the last 50 years. This is especially the case for highlighting the spatial structure of precipitation trends.A clustering of trends is observed in certain months, including distinct trend belts especially in east and north-east China. Nevertheless, positive as well as negative monthly trends can be noted simultaneously in different areas. The spatial interpolation of precipitation trend analysis results is a useful approach to give further understanding of the regional pattern of precipitation trends in China.     

东亚多卫星集成降水业务系统

静止气象卫星与极轨气象卫星的集成应用,能够充分发挥静止气象卫星与极轨气象卫星的各自优势。东亚多卫星集成降水业务系统采用拉格朗日集成算法,利用静止气象卫星的红外观测信息计算的红外冷云移动矢量,为极轨气象卫星微波降水的发展提供约束条件,实现了静止气象卫星红外观测信息与极轨气象卫星微波降水的集成,综合了两类卫星观测的优势。同时业务系统的设计考虑了多数据分级管理、多业务单元的协同工作和插件式的系统整体框架,为业务系统合理、快速处理多种来源的红外观测数据、微波降水数据,以及未来的数据更迭和算法更新提供了必要保障。     

Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map

Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other.     

2004年我国天气气候特点

2004年，全国平均年降水量较常年偏少，且时空分布不均。春李至初夏，东北西部、内蒙古东部地区出现近50年来最严重的干旱；秋季，华南、长江中下游地区发生大范围的严重干旱。汛期，我国大江大河未发生大的流域性洪涝灾害，但局地性强降雨造成的暴雨洪涝和滑坡、泥石流等灾害比较频繁，四川、重庆、云南、河南、湖北、湖南等省市损失较重。全国年平均气温较常年明显偏高，但阶段性起伏变化较大，冬、春、秋季部分地区遭受低温冻害或雪灾，夏季南方出现持续高温天气。年内，有8个台风(热带风暴)登陆我国，其中台风“云娜”给浙江造成严重损失。雷雨大风、冰雹、雷击等局地强对流天气发生频繁。春季北方沙尘天气较上年同期增多。综合分析，2004年我国气候总体正常，气象灾害偏轻，属于偏好年景。     

西风带研究动态

本文较为详细地介绍了影响我国气候的重要因子——西风带的一些国内外最新研究动态,这些研究动态和研究成果将对山西省的气候研究起到积极作用。     

桂林暴雨天气的多普勒雷达径向速度分析与应用

利用桂林新一带天气雷达径向速度产品资料对2004年发生在桂林的强暴雨过程及其暴雨个例的径向速度平面位置显示产品（PPI）特征的多样性进行分析发现，利用径向速度变化可判断中尺度对流的发展，可对桂林暴雨提前做出预报。     

中国南京与美国德克萨斯稻田甲烷排放的比较

Field measurements of methane emission from rice paddies were made in Nanjing, China and in Texas, USA, respectively. Soil temperature at approximately 10 cm depth of the flooded soils was automatically recorded. Aboveground biomass of rice crop was measured approximately every 10 days in Nanjing and every other week in Texas. Seasonal variation of soil temperature in Nanjing was quite wide with a magnitude of 15.3℃ and that in Texas was narrow with a magnitude of 2.9℃. Analysis of methane emission fluxes against soil temperature and rice biomass production demonstrated that the seasonal course of methane emission in Nanjing was mostly attributed to soil temperature changes, while that in Texas was mainly related to rice biomass production. We concluded that under the permanent flooding condition, the seasonal trend of methane emission would be determined by the soil temperature where there was a wide variation of soil temperature, and the seasonal trend would be mainly determined by rice biomass production if there are no additional organic matter inputs and the variation of soil temperature over the rice growing season is small.     

地面气象观测中多普勒雷达回波资料的利用

多普勒天气雷达实时回波通常被广泛应用于短时、临近天气预报、人工增雨(雪)等方面的业务中,事实上,掌握天气雷达回波的演变情况,对做好地面气象观测也是一个很好的辅助工具。通过对2009年4月4日一次强降水过程的多普勒天气雷达云团速度和强度特征分析,结果发现:强降水形成、加强、维持与消散的各个阶段在路径、速度和强度上有明显的体现。     

降水现象仪观测应用评估

利用2017年9月至2018年8月北京20个站降水现象仪采集数据与人工平行观测数据,对降水现象仪进行了对比评估。结果表明:降水现象仪的缺测率为0.01%,空报率为0.6%,捕获率为93.5%,漏报率为27.9%,错报率为10.0%。从统计结果可知,降水现象仪的缺测率、空报率较低,捕获率较高,体现出设备性能良好的一面,漏报率和错报率偏高,表明设备漏识别和错误识别的情况较多,漏报主要发生在弱降水过程中,错报主要出现在毛毛雨的识别上。设备测量和人工观测降水开始时间一致性较好,终止时间一致性偏差;降水现象仪现存问题:在大雨强时易出现雨滴叠加误识别,在小雨强时识别率会降低,在无降水错误输出降水现象方面缺少质控。