The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

We examine the seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature simulated by 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Nine of the models use ad hoc “flux adjustment” at the ocean surface to bring model simulations close to observations of the present-day climate. We group flux-adjusted and non-flux-adjusted models separately and examine the behavior of each class. When averaged over all of the flux-adjusted model simulations, near-surface air temperature falls within 2?K of observed values over the oceans. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models shows errors up to ～6?K in extensive ocean areas. Flux adjustments are not directly applied over land, and near-surface land temperature errors are substantial in the average over flux-adjusted models, which systematically underestimates (by ～5?K) temperature in areas of elevated terrain. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models forms a similar error pattern (with somewhat increased amplitude) over land. We use the temperature difference between July and January to measure seasonal cycle amplitude. Zonal means of this quantity from the individual flux-adjusted models form a fairly tight cluster (all within ～30% of the mean) centered on the observed values. The non-flux-adjusted models perform nearly as well at most latitudes. In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes, however, the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of January-minus-July temperature differences by ～5?K due to an overestimate of summer (January) near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models. Also, over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas, zonal mean differences between July and January temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models. Elsewhere, differences between the two classes of models are less obvious. At no latitude is the zonal mean difference between averages over the two classes of models greater than the standard deviation over models. The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming), but it is not a sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes. To test this possible connection, we compare seasonal cycle amplitude with equilibrium warming under doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide for the models in our data base. A small but positive correlation exists between these two quantities. This result is predicted by a simple conceptual model of the climate system, and it is consistent with other modeling experience, which indicates that the seasonal cycle depends only weakly on climate sensitivity.     

草原垦荒行星边界层的数值研究

本文主要用修改的Nickerson等(1986)提出的中尺度模式,研究了在我国北方(49°19′N,119°55′E)草原开垦地所形成的行星边界层。其基本结果是:1)正午开垦地的“热岛”强度达4—6℃。下垫面的热力扰动可达700m高度,而对流扰动可达行星边界层顶,对流速度为1-2cm·s~(-1);2)一旦草原被大范围开垦,其边界层气候就会朝干热方向演变;3)灌溉可以减轻开垦地的“热岛”强度和旱情,但不能阻止气候的干热化过程,4)行星边界层内局地环流的方向在一昼夜内保持不变,即低层150—200m高度以下的气流由草原吹向开垦地,风速达2m·s~(-1)左右,上层为返回气流,速度略小于下层。草原上的湿气流在水平方向伸入开垦地可达30-50km。     

The transport of CO2-induced warming into the ocean: an analysis of simulations by the OSU coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

The OSU global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model has been used to investigate a 2xCO₂-induced climate change. A previous analysis of the simulated 2xCO₂–1xCO₂ temperature differences showed that the CO₂-induced warming penetrated into the ocean and thereby caused a delay in the equilibration of the climate system with an estimatede-folding time of 50–75 years. The objective of the present study is to determine by what pathways and through which physical processes the simulated ocean general circulation produces the penetration of the CO₂-induced warming into the ocean.A global-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the ocean gains heat at a rate of 3 W/m² due to the CO₂ doubling, and that this heat penetrates downward into the ocean predominantly through the reduction in the convective overturning. A zonal-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the surface warming increases from the tropics toward the midlatitudes of both hemispheres and gradually penetrated into the deeper ocean, with a greater penetration in the subtropics and midlatitudes than in the equatorial region. The zonal-mean heat budget analysis also shows that the CO₂-induced warming of the ocean occurs predominantly through the down-ward transport of heat, with the meridional heat flux being only of secondary importance. In the tropics the penetration of the CO₂-induced heating is minimized by the upwelling of cold water. In the subtropics the heating is transported down-ward more readily by the downwelling existing there. In the high latitudes the suppressed convection plays the dominant role in the downward penetration of the CO₂-induced heating. The latter result should be considered as tentative, however, as the ocean component of the coupled model employed a prescribed surface salinity field and did not include the mechanism of brine rejection when sea water freezes into sea ice.     

间歇性河流湿地生态修复规划研究:以云南楚雄龙川江湿地为例

云南楚雄龙川江流域上游的水库建设和河道渠化等工程改变了河谷盆地、缓坡、农耕地、河道、间歇性河流湿地和季节性溪流的地形和水文条件,曾经支持健康河流生态系统的间歇性湿地大面积退化,导致河流自净能力下降、植被退化以及生物多样性降低。通过调查和评估龙川江湿地,分析间歇性河流湿地生态修复的轨迹,确定修复目标、参考模型和技术路线,并制定湿地管理计划,旨在恢复健康的河流湿地环境。在湿地修复措施方面,挖掘和重新连接关键生态属性的湿地斑块,通过间歇性湿地保留雨水和流域的径流水量,实施综合种植计划,在河岸两侧恢复具有重要生态意义的季节性湿地综合体等。     

Investigation on semi-direct and indirect climate effects of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol over China

A Regional Climate Chemistry Modeling System that employed empirical parameterizations of aerosol-cloud microphysics was applied to investigate the spatial distribution, radiative forcing (RF), and climate effects of black carbon (BC) over China. Results showed high levels of BC in Southwest, Central, and East China, with maximum surface concentrations, column burden, and optical depth (AOD) up to 14 μg?m^?3, 8 mg?m^?2, and 0.11, respectively. Black carbon was found to result in a positive RF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to its direct effect while a negative RF due to its indirect effect. The regional-averaged direct and indirect RF of BC in China was about +0.81 and ?0.95 W?m^?2, respectively, leading to a net RF of ?0.15 W?m^?2 at the TOA. The BC indirect RF was larger than its direct RF in South China. Due to BC absorption of solar radiation, cloudiness was decreased by 1.33 %, further resulting in an increase of solar radiation and subsequently a surface warming over most parts of China, which was opposite to BC’s indirect effect. Further, the net effect of BC might cause a decrease of precipitation of ?7.39 % over China. Investigations also suggested large uncertainties and non-linearity in BC’s indirect effect on regional climate. Results suggested that: (a) changes in cloud cover might be more affected by BC’s direct effect, while changes in surface air temperature and precipitation might be influenced by BC’s indirect effect; and (b) BC second indirect effect might have more influence on cloud cover and water content compared to first indirect effect. This study highlighted a substantial role of BC on regional climate changes.     

南海地区赤道辐合带的动力学与能量学特征分析

本文利用三角形区域法,对南海地区ITCZ的21个个例分析计算了有关动力学特征量随高度的分布,从而得出了平均的结果,这与蒋全荣和余志豪(1984)的分析结论基本一致。分析还发现在平均和分类情况下,南海地区ITCZ的高层(约300hpa)可能有一个相对的干燥层或“干盖”存在。能量学特征的计算表明,南海地区的ITCZ低层具有大量水汽、潜热和全能量的水平辐合,然后垂直向上输送并在高层向副热带地区水平辐散开去。因此,它在热带大气环流能量、水汽等方面的传输过程中起着重要的作用。      

深圳海岸复杂地形气流与湍流特征的数值模拟

利用三维非静力能量闭合（Ｅ－ε）的边界层模式，以深圳海岸复杂地形进行了实际模拟。结果给出了该地区海陆风情形下气流和湍流孤变化特征。在海风发展盛期，气流方向由大面积的水域和内陆的位置决定，不规则海岸线对局地气流影响不大，夜间陆风时，不规则海岸线对局地气流影响较大，湍流能量高值颁在陆地上空的不稳定层内，水面上湍能很小。模拟结果与实测结果上比较吻合。     

集合预报及其在中期天气预报中的应用

作者概述了集合预报的基本概念，集合预报中期天气预报中的意义与作用，现有的主要集合预报产品以及集合预报在美国美国国家气象中心和欧洲中期天气预报的业务运行。简要介绍了我国国家气象中心在动力延伸预报和集合预报方面的试验研究情况。     

MYTRONS系统在暴雨临近预报和研究中的应用

概述了ＭＹＴＲＯＮＳ系统在长江中游地区暴雨研究的成果和在临近预报中的应用。该系统的建成，使预报员以高时空分辨率识别出中尺度系统客体的存在及动态演变，提高了对暴雨发生和发展过程的认识，增强了灾害性暴雨的预报能力。     

STUDY ON CANONICAL AUTOREGRESSION PREDICTION OF METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENT FIELDS*

Through extension of canonical correlation to the analysis of meteorological element fields (MEF), a concept from combination of canonical autocorrelation with canonical autoregression (CAR) is developed for short-term climatic prediction of MEFs with a formulated scheme. Experimental results suggest that the scheme is of encouraging usefulness to a weak persistence MEF,i.e., rainfall field and, in particular, to a strong persistance one like a SST field.