CO2湍流通量误差的修正和不确定性研究进展

目前国内外对能量和CO₂涡动相关通量的测量误差的谱修正缺乏一致性，导致各测量站之间的资料对比难以进行，给全球尺度资料的合成造成很大困难。因此在强调长期CO₂通量测量精度的同时，还应该注重确定对测量误差修正的首选方法和研究重点。该文主要介绍了两种用于修正测量仪器误差的谱方法；二维和三维的气流运动对通量误差的影响；资料处理中的误差；夜间CO₂通量的测量问题。     

Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States

To study the impacts of climate change on water resources in the western U.S., global climate simulations were produced using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy (NCAR/DOE) Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to downscale the PCM control (20 years) and three future(2040–2060) climate simulations to yield ensemble regional climate simulations at 40 km spatial resolution for the western U.S. This paper describes the regional simulations and focuses on the hydroclimate conditions in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and Sacramento-San Joaquin River (SSJ) Basin. Results based on global and regional simulations show that by mid-century, the average regional warming of 1 to 2.5 °C strongly affects snowpack in the western U.S. Along coastal mountains, reduction in annual snowpack was about70% as indicated by the regional simulations. Besides changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack, cold season extreme daily precipitation increased by 5 to 15 mm/day (15–20%) along theCascades and the Sierra. The warming resulted in increased rainfall at the expense of reduced snowfall, and reduced snow accumulation (or earlier snowmelt) during the cold season. In the CRB, these changes were accompanied by more frequent rain-on-snow events. Overall, they induced higher likelihood of wintertime flooding and reduced runoff and soil moisture in the summer. Changes in surface water and energy budgets in the CRB and SSJ basin were affected mainly by changes in surface temperature, which were statistically significant at the 0.95 confidence level. Changes in precipitation, while spatially incoherent, were not statistically significant except for the drying trend during summer. Because snow and runoff are highly sensitive tospatial distributions of temperature and precipitation, this study shows that (1) downscaling provides more realistic estimates of hydrologic impacts in mountainous regions such as the western U.S., and (2) despite relatively small changes in temperature and precipitation, changes in snowpack and runoff can be much larger on monthly to seasonal time scales because the effects of temperature and precipitation are integrated over time and space through various surface hydrological and land-atmosphere feedback processes. Although the results reported in this study were derived from an ensemble of regional climate simulations driven by a global climate model that displays low climate sensitivity compared with most other models, climate change was found to significantly affect water resources in the western U.S. by the mid twenty-first century.     

陆内盆地与强震活动ht

1303年9月27日的山西洪洞8级地震发生于山西断陷盆地带中的临汾盆地，这是我国自有地震历史记载以来的第一次8级地震，也是一个在活动陆内盆地中发生的大地震. 2003年9月17~18日在山西太原市召开了1303年山西洪洞8级地震700周年暨陆内盆地与强震活动研讨会. 会上交流的论文讨论了我国不同地区发育的不同性质的陆内活动盆地，包括拉张构造区的地堑、半地堑张性盆地，挤压构造区的压陷盆地和前陆盆地及走滑构造带内的拉分盆地与强震活动的关系. 本文对这些问题作了简要的总结，本期刊登的论文是由部分会议论文组成的专辑.      

利用测震台网记录获得加速度波形的方法研究

研究了从测震台网速度记录获得高质量加速度波形的方法，并以天津蓟县台安装的CTSI-EDAS24速度型甚宽带地震仪和EST-Q4128型强。震仪对同一地震记录的处理分析为例，对计算步骤和处理方法进行了详细论述。处理结果的对比分析表明，该方法简单有效，拓宽了数字测震台网波形记录的服务应用范围。     

Fast-J2: Accurate Simulation of Stratospheric Photolysis in Global Chemical Models

Modeling photochemistry in the stratosphere requires solution of the equationof radiative transfer over an extreme range of wavelengths and atmosphericconditions, from transmission through the Schumann–Runge bands ofO₂ in the mesosphere, to multiple scattering from troposphericclouds and aerosols. The complexity and range of conditions makes photolysiscalculations in 3-D chemical transport models computationally expensive. Thisstudy pesents a fast and accurate numerical method, Fast-J2, for calculatingphotolysis rates (J-values) and the deposition of solar flux in stratosphere.Fast-J2 develops an optimized, super-wide 11-bin quadrature for wavelengthsfrom 177 to 291 nm that concatenates with the 7-bin quadrature (291–850nm) already developed for the troposphere as Fast-J. Below 291 nm the effectsof Rayleigh scattering are implemented as a pseudo-absorption, and above 291nm the full multiple-scattering code of Fast-J is used. Fast-J2 calculates themean ultraviolet-visible radiation field for these 18 wavelength binsthroughout the stratosphere, and thus new species and new cross sections canbe readily implemented. In comparison with a standard, high-resolution,multiple-scattering photolysis model, worst-case errors in Fast-J2 do notexceed 5% over a wide range of solar zenith angles, altitudes(0–60 km), latitudes, and seasons where the rates are important inphotochemistry.     

A comprehensive physical pattern of land-air dynamic and thermal structure on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

According to the boundary layer observations of three stations (Garze, Damxung and Qamdu) and relevant earth satellite, radiosonde and surface observations during the intensive observational period (IOP) of the second Tibetan (Qinghai-Xizang) Plateau Experiment of atmospheric science (TIPEX), the land-air physical process and dynamic model on the Tibetan Plateau were comprehensively analyzed in this study. The dynamic characteristics of boundary layer and the rules of turbulent motion on the plateau were illustrated. The characteristics of distributions of wind speed and direction with mutiple-layer structure and deep convective mixed layer on the plateau, the strong buoyancy effect in turbulent motion on the plateau on which the air density is obviously smaller than on the plain, and the Ekman spiral and its dynamic pump effect of the plateau deep boundary layer have been found. The local static distribution of water vapor and the horizontal advection of water vapor in the plateau boundary layer were studied. The abnomal thermodynamic structure on the plateau surface and boundary layer, including the plateau strong radiation phenomenon and strong heating source characteristics of the middle plateau, was also analyzed. The authors synthesized the above dynamic and thermodynamic structures of both surface and boundary layers on the plateau and posed the comprehensive physical model of the turbulence and convective mixture mechanism on the plateau boundary layer. The characteristics of formation, development and movement for convective cloud cluster over the plateau influencing floods in the Yangtze River area of China were studied. The conceptual model of dynamic and thermodynamic structures of turbulent motion and convective plume related to the frequent occurrence of "pop-corn-like" cloud system is given as well.     

学习向量量化(LVQ)在地震和爆破识别中的应用

介绍了竞争神经网络和学习向量量化（LVQ）算法。此算法应用于对北京及周围地区地震和爆破的识别中，在对38个事件的应用中，得到的结果是，误识为3个，结果较好，说明在识别中是有效的。     

中国华北峰值加速度的衰减特性及与北美东部的比较

利用唐山强余震的强地面运动记录,研究了近场强地面运动水平峰值加速度的衰减特性,得到了唐山地区的衰减关系(土层、土层与基岩)．此外,还得到了北美东部的衰减关系,并将其与中国华北的衰减进行了比较,认为两者的衰减趋势是比较一致的．中国华北的衰减特性可供北美东部参考．      

湍流高阶矩模式中的参数研究

该文为高阶矩湍流方程组的二阶矩闭合方案提供了参数组选择。此参数组是用近地层实测资料结合湍流方程二阶矩闭合方案推算出的。然后，将其与Mellor等人在实验室所得的参数组分别代入湍流二阶矩闭合方程组拟合，得动量(ΦM(ξ))、热量(ΦH(ξ))与稳定度(ξ)的二组关系曲线，可见此二组曲线几乎重合，且与Businger野外近地层实测结果符合较好。拟合的垂直速度方差((W*2)1/2(ξ))、温度方差((θ*2)1/2(ξ))与ξ的二组关系曲线相对于UTAH资料，所得曲线偏差比Mellor曲线偏差小得多，而相对于KANSAS资料，所得曲线偏差稍大于Mellor曲线。     

云间屏蔽对块状云阵短波辐射参数的影响

本文使用短波辐射传输方程建立分析模式研究规则排列块状云阵的短波辐射参数。模式中考虑了云对地表的遮光、邻近云对地表反射光的遮挡以及云侧面之间、云侧与地表之间的散射与吸收。本模式最大特色是加入了云体间相互屏蔽。这点由于其复杂性而多为以前的研究者所忽略。与不考虑此效应的Ｂｒａｄｌｅｙ模式所得结果比较，本模式在太阳天顶角较大时对云阵辐射参数有较大修正。