Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Directly Affecting Guangdong Province:Prediction Based on LSTM-FC

Tropical cyclone(TC) annual frequency forecasting is significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province. Based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed global sea surface temperature(SST) V5 data in winter, the TC frequency climatic features and prediction models have been studied.During 1951-2019, 353 TCs directly affected Guangdong with an annual average of about 5.1. TCs have experienced an abrupt change from abundance to deficiency in the mid to late ...     

一次新型液态CO2播撒效果的数值模拟

利用三维积层混合云人工增雨数值模式对2002年7月11日的一次天气过程进行了由播撒液态CO2引起的微物理量变化及云动力影响的数值模拟。结果表明:播撒后,云中最大上升气流速度增大,由未播撒时的0.37 m/s增大到播撒后的0.54 m/s,播撒使云中出现最大上升速度W的时间比未播撒提前了4 min,表明播撒液态CO2影响了云的动力过程。同时与未播撒相比:云中雨水含量最大值由1.04 g/kg增加到1.40 g/kg;冰粒子含水量的出现提前了88 min,最大值的出现提前了76min;冰粒子浓度的出现提前了72 min,最大值的出现提前了72 min;雪粒子含水量的出现提前了72 min,最大值的出现提前了128 min;云水含量最大值由1.21 g/kg减小到0.87 g/kg。证明了播撒液态CO2后可影响云的微物理过程,从而导致地面降水的增加。     

海洋纤维增强热塑性立管极限承载拉力预测方法

海洋新型纤维增强热塑性立管因其可盘卷、耐腐蚀、耐疲劳和轻质化等优点,在深水油气开发中应用前景十分广阔。热塑性立管具有复合材料的各向异性、受力耦合效应及复杂的本构关系,且承受浮体运动和复杂海洋环境载荷,其失效模式尚未明确。针对轴对称载荷作用下纤维增强热塑性立管极限承载力问题,进行热塑性管稳态热传导和热应力的理论推导,求解了稳态温度和应力分布,首次给出了在任意温度载荷作用下管体径向位移的解析解,并直接求解其径向、轴向、环向和剪切应力。采用各向同性层Von Mises和各向异性层最大应力（Max Stress）准则或Tsai-Hill准则判定热塑性管的失效,基于应力分布、失效准则和二分法计算了热塑性管的极限载荷。温度载荷、纤维铺设角度和径厚比对管道的应力分布影响显著。不同温度载荷会改变失效指数沿径向的变化趋势,增大轴向拉力将增大热塑性管的失效指数,选用不同的失效准则在管体失效判定上存在一定的差异。热塑性管温度越低、纤维铺设角越小及径厚比越大,管道对轴向拉伸载荷的承载能力越强。     

Investigation of highly efficient algorithms for solving linear equations in the discontinuous deformation analysis method

Large‐scale engineering computing using the discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) method is time‐consuming, which hinders the application of the DDA method. The simulation result of a typical numerical example indicates that the linear equation solver is a key factor that affects the efficiency of the DDA method. In this paper, highly efficient algorithms for solving linear equations are investigated, and two modifications of the DDA programme are presented. The first modification is a linear equation solver with high efficiency. The block Jacobi (BJ) iterative method and the block conjugate gradient with Jacobi pre‐processing (Jacobi‐PCG) iterative method are introduced, and the key operations are detailed, including the matrix‐vector product and the diagonal matrix inversion. Another modification consists of a parallel linear equation solver, which is separately constructed based on the multi‐thread and CPU‐GPU heterogeneous platforms with OpenMP and CUDA, respectively. The simulation results from several numerical examples using the modified DDA programme demonstrate that the Jacobi‐PCG is a better iterative method for large‐scale engineering computing and that adoptive parallel strategies can greatly enhance computational efficiency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Designation processes for marine protected areas in the coastal wetlands of South Korea

The history of Korean tidal flat management and the process for designating Coastal Wetland Protected Areas (CWPAs) are described. Korean coastal wetlands have a long history of intensive use through reclamation for agricultural and industrial uses in the 20th century. Recently, the management policy is shifting away from intensive use towards the conservation of wetlands. This shift is caused by increasing public awareness of the value of wetlands and strong institutional support from the government. Since the Wetlands Conservation Act was passed in 1999, a total of twelve CWPAs have been designated through both top-down and bottom-up processes. Three designation paths are classified based on the relevant drivers, namely government-driven designations (seven CWPAs), local community driven designations (three CWPAs), and conflict resolution (trade-offs) driven designation (two CWPAs). The lessons learned from the designation of Korean CWPAs is that diversification of designation process could facilitate voluntary participation of local stakeholders and thereby enhance the chance of successful implementation of wise use strategy of tidal flats.     

Parallelization of the distinct lattice spring model

The distinct lattice spring model (DLSM) is a newly developed numerical tool for modeling rock dynamics problems, i.e. dynamic failure and wave propagation. In this paper, parallelization of DLSM is presented. With the development of parallel computing technologies in both hardware and software, parallelization of a code is becoming easier than before. There are many available choices now. In this paper, Open Multi‐Processing (OpenMP) with multicore personal computer (PC) and message passing interface (MPI) with cluster are selected as the environments to parallelize DLSM. Performances of these parallel DLSM codes are tested on different computers. It is found that the parallel DLSM code with OpenMP can reach a maximum speed‐up of 4.68× on a quad‐core PC. The parallel DLSM code with MPI can achieve a speed‐up of 40.886× when 256 CPUs are used on a cluster. At the end of this paper, a high‐resolution model with four million particles, which is too big to handle by the serial code, is simulated by using the parallel DLSM code on a cluster. It is concluded that the parallelization of DLSM is successful. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of eddies in solute transport and recovery in rock fractures: Implication for groundwater remediation

A better understanding of solute transport and retention mechanism in rock fractures has been challenging due to difficulty in their direct observations in microscale rough‐walled fractures. Six representative troughs in a rough‐walled fracture were selected for microscale observations of eddy formation with increasing flow velocity and its effect on spatiotemporal changes of solute concentration. This experimental study was enabled by a microscale visualization technique of micro particle image velocimetry. With increasing flow velocity (Re ≤ 2.86), no eddies were generated, and solutes along the main streamlines transported rapidly, whereas those near the wall moved slowly. A larger amount of solutes remained trapped at all troughs at Re = 2.86 than Re < 1. For Re = 8.57, weak eddies started to be developed at the troughs on the lee side, which little contributed to overall solute flushing in the fracture. Accordingly, a large of amount of water was needed for solute flushing. The flow condition of 1 < Re < 10, before a full development of eddies, was least favourable in terms of time and amount of remediation fluid required to reach a target concentration. After large eddies were fully developed at troughs on the lee side for Re = 17.13, solutes were substantially reduced by eddies with less amount of water. Fully developed eddies were found to enhance solute transport and recovery, as opposed to a general consensus that eddies trap and delay solutes. Direct inflow into troughs on the stoss side also made a great contribution to solute flushing out of the troughs. This study indicates that fully developed eddies or strong inflows at troughs are highly possible to form for Re > 10 and this flow range could be favourable for efficient remediation.     

西秦岭北缘断裂带地震活动特征及近期发展趋势

本文讨论了西秦岭北缘断裂带在青藏高原东北部三次地震活动高潮幕和两次地震活动低潮幕中的作用和特点,以及地震活动的时空强特征和近期发展趋势。     

我国多雨季和少雨季的一些统计特征

通过对我国31年124季降水距平图的分析发现1.全国性的特多(少)雨季中,在高原东侧(95—105°E间)总有一少(多)雨带出现。2.多(少)雨季之后仍为多(少)雨季的持续性以春一夏最好,秋冬最差。3.一年中出现多雨季的次数与黑潮海温和西太平洋副高强度呈正相关。     

1991年江淮梅雨暴雨与亚洲季风的关系

利用实际大气参数取值进行尺度分析，求得斜压半地转模式中非线性斜压Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波的非频散周期解的存在条件与解。给出了能够描述非线性特性波动的无量纲拟能效ε，由此推导了非线性特征波动的波速公式及波参数间的一些诊断关系。