Research on temporal and spatial distribution, evolutionary character and mechanism of crustal deformation field before and after the Tangshan earthquake

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Efficient generation of conditional simulations by chebyshev matrix polynomial approximations to the symmetric square root of the covariance matrix

Consider the problem of generating a realization y₁ of a Gaussian random field on a dense grid of points ₁ conditioned on field observations y₂ collected on a sparse grid of points ₂. An approach to this is to generate first an unconditional realization y over the grid =_{1 2}, and then to produce y₁ by conditioning y on the data y₂. As standard methods for generating y, such as the turning bands, spectral or Cholesky approaches can have various limitations, it has been proposed by M. W. Davis to generate realizations from a matrix polynomial approximations to the square root of the covariance matrix. In this paper we describe how to generate a direct approximation to the conditional realization y₁, on ₁ using a variant of Davis' approach based on approximation by Chebyshev polynomials. The resulting algorithm is simple to implement, numerically stable, and bounds on the approximation error are readily available. Furthermore we show that the conditional realization y₁ can be generated directly with a lower order polynomial than the unconditional realization y, and that further reductions can be achieved by exploiting a nugget effect if one is present. A pseudocode version of the algorithm is provided that can be implemented using the fast Fourier transform if the field is stationary and the grid ₁ is rectangular. Finally, numerical illustrations are given of the algorithm's performance in generating various 2-D realizations of conditional processes on large sampling grids.     

Characterizing heterogeneous permeable media with spatial statistics and tracer data using sequential simulated annealing

Characterizing heterogeneous permeable media using flow and transport data typically requires solution of an inverse problem. Such inverse problems are intensive computationally and may involve iterative procedures requiring many forward simulations of the flow and transport problem. Previous attempts have been limited mostly to flow data such as pressure transient (interference) tests using multiple observation wells. This paper discusses an approach to generating stochastic permeability fields conditioned to geologic data in the form of a vertical variogram derived from cores and logs as well as fluid flow and transport data, such as tracer concentration history, by sequential application of simulated annealing (SA). Thus, the method incorporates elements of geostatistics within the framework of inverse modeling. For tracer-transport calculations, we have used a semianalytic transit-time algorithm which is fast, accurate, and free of numerical dispersion. For steady velocity fields, we introduce a transit-time function which demonstrates the relative importance of data from different sources. The approach is illustrated by application to a set of spatial permeability measurements and tracer data from an experiment in the Antolini Sandstone, an eolian outcrop from northern Arizona. The results clearly reveal the importance of tracer data in reproducing the correlated features (channels) of the permeability field and the scale effects of heterogeneity.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

Regional Seas and Sustainable Development Results of an International Workshop

Reports

Regional Seas and Sustainable Development Results of an International Workshop     

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

合肥遥测台网地震速报系统

论述了适用于遥测地震台网大震速报的一套计算机处理系统,系统设计以《全国遥测台网观测技术规范》和《近震分析》理论为依据,实现了数据输入,震相选择,数据处理,地震定位,震级计算,结果输出及贮存等多项功能,达到了快速确定地震三要素,提高速报速度和精度之目的,是一个较完善的,实用的速报系统。     

Sedimentary Features of Shallow Ancient River Channels on the Northern Shelf of the South China Sea

Quaternary buried ancient river channels are widespread in the shallow-level sediments of the northern shelf of the South China Sea. The sedimentary sequence mainly of fluvial deposits comprise an important component part of the low-stand system tract and transgressive system tract in the study region. The plannar variation and spatial association of the sedimentary features such as incised valley fillings, deltaic foreset wedges and block slides of shelf-marginal fans reflect the palaeogeographic environment during the fall of the regional sea level in the northern part of the South China Sea. Based on the high-resolution seismic reflection data and gelogical data from boreholes, the present paper makes an integrated interpretation of the Quaternary ancient river channels in the shallow sediments of the study area, studies the sedimentary features of the ancient channels such as their spatial distribution, seismic facies reflection indicators, sedimentary facies and sand -body types, and discusses thei     

湘中“桃江式”锰矿含锰岩系的定量研究及其找矿意义

本文从分析地质体数学特征的思想出发,来研究“桃江式”锰矿的含矿母岩－“含锰岩系”的数学特征。含锰岩系主要由五种岩石组成：粘土岩、黑色页岩、条带状页岩、含锰灰岩和碳酸锰矿层,其数学特征研究包括其统计特征分析、结构特征分析和空间特征分析。文最后讨论了这些数学特征在寻找同类锰矿中的意义。     

The effect of an optically thin region on stability of an accretion disk around a supermassive black hole

We analyse conditions of the innermost portion of an accretion disk and establish a set of equations for this region. A stable innermost region may exist, which can probably explain the observed UV and X-ray spectra, avoiding the unstable emission. We then discuss the detailed radial structure of a disk around a black hole for typical AGN parameters and obtain different kinds of- relationships for different regions of a disk. On the basis of this, we discuss the stability. A new type of cycle is present, which we call a double S shaped cycle. In this cycle, the extent of accretion rate variability is much larger than that in dwarf nova cycles. This probably solves the problem of violent variability of AGN. In the meantime, the very high accretion rate at the hottest state in limit cycles in the unstable region may provide continuous injection of matter to the jet and power the relativistic motion of the jet.