Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

A luminescence‐based chronology for the Harletz loess sequence,Bulgaria

The Harletz loess‐palaeosol sequence is located in northwestern Bulgaria and represents an important link between well‐studied loess sequences in eastern Romania and further sites to the west of the Carpathians (e.g. Serbia and Hungary). The aim of this study was to establish a chronostratigraphy of the deposits, using various methods of luminescence dating, together with basic stratigraphical field observations as well as magnetic properties. Luminescence dating was carried out using the quartz fine grain fraction and a SAR protocol, and the feldspar coarse grain fraction, applying the MET‐pIRIR protocol. Due to underestimation of the quartz fine grain fraction in the lower parts of the sequence, the resulting chronology is mainly based on the feldspar ages, which are derived from the stimulation temperature at 150 °C. A comparison with nearby sequences from Serbia, Hungary and Romania, and interpretations obtained through the stratigraphical and sedimentological signature of the sequence, supports the established chronology. Our data suggest that the prominent palaeosol (soil complex) in the upper quarter of the sequence was formed during MIS 5. It would follow that large parts of the Last Glacial loess overlying this palaeosol were probably eroded, and that the thick loess accumulation underlying this soil complex can be allocated to the penultimate glacial (MIS 6). A prominent MIS 6 tephra, which has been reported from other sequences in the area, is also present at Harletz.     

Sedimentary architecture of a glaciolacustrine braidplain delta: proxy evidence of a pre‐Middle Wisconsinan glaciation (Grimshaw gravels,Interior Plains,Canada)

The erosional nature of glacial systems commonly results in removal of direct evidence of previous glaciation (e.g. till and moraine). Therefore, reconstruction of former ice‐margin positions may rely, in part, on indirect (proxy) evidence from the sedimentary record. This study examines the facies and sedimentary architecture of a pre‐Middle Wisconsinan sand and gravel deposit (the ‘Grimshaw gravels’), which is positioned between areas where previous stratigraphical investigations have identified single (Late Wisconsinan) and multiple (pre‐Middle to Late Wisconsinan) glaciation by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Five facies associations (FAs) are characterized within the deposit, which, together with the sedimentary architecture, record a transition from a braided river environment in the west (FA1‐3) to a gravelly braidplain delta front in the east (FA4 and 5). We propose that the Grimshaw gravels braid delta formed at the margin of a body of water that occupied the ancestral Peace River valley, probably impounded by the LIS; hence, the Grimshaw braid delta provides proxy evidence of the presence of an ice margin (previously unrecognized) in the Peace River lowland prior to the Middle Wisconsinan. This study provides further understanding of the origin of the Grimshaw gravels deposit, allowing re‐evaluation of previous models of formation. These findings offer insight into the glacial history of the southwestern margin of the LIS, and may help to refine ice‐sheet reconstructions spanning the Wisconsinan glaciation.     

Detailed hydraulic head profiles as essential data for defining hydrogeologic units in layered fractured sedimentary rock

This paper describes a study in southern Wisconsin where vertical hydraulic head profiles measured in exceptional detail provided the key data for defining hydrogeologic units (HGUs) in a layered sequence of sandstone, siltstone, shale, and dolostone. The most important data were obtained from corehole MP-6 which was cored 131 m into bedrock and instrumented using a Westbay^® multilevel system with 36 depth discrete monitoring intervals. The resulting head profile is consistant over time and shows eight distinct inflections in hydraulic head. Several of the inflections occur between adjacent permeable units and are likely due to poor vertical connectivity of fracture sets rather than distinct lower permeability layers or aquitards in the conventional sense. No other type of data was capable of identifying the position of such distinct hydrogeologic features. These zones of abrupt head loss provide the primary dataset for delineation of eleven HGUs at MP-6 and are supported by less detailed head profiles at other locations. Although the detailed head profiles are essential, core logs and geophysical logs from other boreholes are nessessary to fully establish the lateral continuity of the HGUs.     

Magmatic Differentiation at an Island-arc Caldera: Okmok Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

Okmok volcano is situated on oceanic crust in the central Aleutianarc and experienced large (15 km³) caldera-forming eruptionsat 12 000 years BP and 2050 years BP. Each caldera-forming eruptionbegan with a small Plinian rhyodacite event followed by theemplacement of a dominantly andesitic ash-flow unit, whereaseffusive inter- and post-caldera lavas have been more basaltic.Phenocryst assemblages are composed of olivine + pyroxene +plagioclase ± Fe–Ti oxides and indicate crystallizationat 1000–1100°C at 0·1–0·2 GPain the presence of 0–4% H₂O. The erupted products followa tholeiitic evolutionary trend and calculated liquid compositionsrange from 52 to 68 wt % SiO₂ with 0·8–3·3wt % K₂O. Major and trace element models suggest that the moreevolved magmas were produced by 50–60% in situ fractionalcrystallization around the margins of the shallow magma chamber.Oxygen and strontium isotope data (¹⁸O 4·4–4·9,⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr 0·7032–0·7034) indicate interactionwith a hydrothermally altered crustal component, which led toelevated thorium isotope ratios in some caldera-forming magmas.This compromises the use of uranium–thorium disequilibria[(²³⁰Th/ ²³⁸U) = 0·849–0·964] to constrainthe time scales of magma differentiation but instead suggeststhat the age of the hydrothermal system is 100 ka. Modellingof the diffusion of strontium in plagioclase indicates thatmany evolved crystal rims formed less than 200 years prior toeruption. This addition of rim material probably reflects theremobilization of crystals from the chamber margins followingreplenishment. Basaltic recharge led to the expansion of themagma chamber, which was responsible for the most recent caldera-formingevent. KEY WORDS: Okmok; caldera; U-series isotopes; Sr-diffusion; time scales; Aleutian arc     

Hydrothermal gold mineralization at the Hira Buddini gold mine,India: constraints on fluid evolution and fluid sources from boron isotopic compositions of tourmaline

We determined the boron isotope and chemical compositions of tourmaline from the Hira Buddini gold deposit within the Archean Hutti-Maski greenstone belt in southern India to investigate the evolution of the hydrothermal system and to constrain its fluid sources. Tourmaline is a minor but widespread constituent in the inner and distal alteration zones of metabasaltic and metadacite host rocks associated with the hydrothermal gold mineralization. The Hira Buddini tourmaline belongs to the dravite–schorl series with variations in Al, Fe/(Fe+Mg), Ca, Ti, and Cr contents that can be related to their host lithology. The total range of δ¹¹B values determined is extreme, from −13.3‰ to +9.0‰, but 95% of the values are between −4 and +9‰. The boron isotope compositions of metabasalt-hosted tourmaline show a bimodal distribution with peak δ¹¹B values at about −2‰ and +6‰. The wide range and bimodal distribution of boron isotope ratios in tourmaline require an origin from at least two isotopically distinct fluid sources, which entered the hydrothermal system separately and were subsequently mixed. The estimated δ¹¹B values of the hydrothermal fluids, based on the peak tourmaline compositions and a mineralization temperature of 550°C, are around +1 and +10‰. The isotopically lighter of the two fluids is consistent with boron released by metamorphic devolatilization reactions from the greenstone lithologies, whereas the ¹¹B-rich fluid is attributed to degassing of I-type granitic magmas that intruded the greenstone sequence, providing heat and fluids to the hydrothermal system. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Environmental Policies Can Buttress Conservation Norms

In an attempt to solve large-scale environmental problems, government agencies often resort to formal sanctioning systems: market-based incentives or command-and-control regulations, to promote cooperation. The purpose of this study was to investigate how the presence of these formal sanctioning systems impacts informal sanctioning systems for environmental protection. Study 1 used an experimental game to explore the influence of market-based and regulatory programs on informal sanctioning in a laboratory setting. Study 2 was a quasi-experimental field survey that compared informal sanctioning among Massachusetts residents living in towns with voluntary, mandatory, and pay-as-you-throw recycling programs. Results showed that in the presence of a formal sanctioning system, individuals felt guiltier for not engaging in the cooperative behavior and expressed more disapproval for non-cooperators. Combined, these results show that environmental policies can buttress conservation norms.     

Protein expression signatures: an application of proteomics

The methods of proteomics, the study of the protein complement of the genome, are applicable to environmental testing. Sets of proteins specific to different stressors can be isolated using computer imaging software. Individual proteins can be identified by mass spectrometry. The Protein Expression Signatures (PES) obtained have potential in diagnosing adverse factors in the environment. The challenge is to demonstrate their feasibility in complex environments. We have shown that PES for three endocrine disrupting compounds in trout (Onchorhynchus mykiss), can be detected in mixed sewage effluent. Other studies support these results. As protein databases expand, identification becomes routine, and capture molecules specific to each protein are developed, the possibility of simple field tests for multiple stressors becomes real.     

Predicting oxygen in small estuaries of the Baltic Sea: a comparative approach

Coastal eutrophication, manifested as hypoxia and anoxia, is a global problem. Only a few empirical models, however, exist to predict bottom oxygen concentration and percentage saturation from nutrient load or morphometry in coastal waters, which are successfully used to predict phytoplankton biomass both in lakes and in estuaries. Furthermore, hardly any empirical models exist to predict bottom oxygen from land-use. A data set was compiled for 19 estuaries in the northern Baltic Sea, which included oxygen concentration and percentage saturation, water chemistry, estuary morphometry, and land-use characteristics. In regression analyses, bottom oxygen was predicted both as a function of the percentage of watershed under agriculture and of mean depth. These models accounted for ca. 55% of the variation in oxygen. Additionally, oxygen was linked to fetch (diameter of the area in the direction of the prevailing wind), which accounted for 30% of the variation in oxygen. This suggests that shallow Finnish estuaries are wind-sensitive. In ‘pits’ (sub-thermocline waters of deep basins), near-bottom total nitrogen strongly correlated with oxygen percentage saturation (R²=0.81). Neither chlorophyll a, total phosphorus nor nutrient loading explained oxygen variation in entire estuaries or in ‘pits’, probably mainly due to annual sedimentation/sediment–water flux dynamics. On the basis of the results of cross-validation, the models have general applicability among Finnish estuaries.