Some Results on the Spatial Breakdown Point of Robust Point Estimates of the Variogram

The effect of outliers on estimates of the variogram depends on how they are distributed in space. The ‘spatial breakdown point’ is the largest proportion of observations which can be drawn from some arbitrary contaminating process without destroying a robust variogram estimator, when they are arranged in the most damaging spatial pattern. A numerical method is presented to find the spatial breakdown point for any sample array in two dimensions or more. It is shown by means of some examples that such a numerical approach is needed to determine the spatial breakdown point for two or more dimensions, even on a regular square sample grid, since previous conjectures about the spatial breakdown point in two dimensions do not hold. The ‘average spatial breakdown point’ has been used as a basis for practical guidelines on the intensity of contaminating processes that can be tolerated by robust variogram estimators. It is the largest proportion of contaminating observations in a data set such that the breakdown point of the variance estimator used to obtain point estimates of the variogram is not exceeded by the expected proportion of contaminated pairs of observations over any lag. In this paper the behaviour of the average spatial breakdown point is investigated for cases where the contaminating process is spatially dependent. It is shown that in two dimensions the average spatial breakdown point is 0.25. Finally, the ‘empirical spatial breakdown point’, a tool for the exploratory analysis of spatial data thought to contain outliers, is introduced and demonstrated using data on metal content in the soils of Sheffield, England. The empirical spatial breakdown point of a particular data set can be used to indicate whether the distribution of possible contaminants is likely to undermine a robust variogram estimator.     

Numerical simulation of migration–accumulation of oil resources

Numerical simulation of oil migration and accumulation is to describe the history of oil migration and accumulation in basin evolution. It is of great value to the evaluation of oil resources and to the determination of the location and amount of oil deposits. This thesis discusses the characteristics of petroleum geology and permeation fluid mechanics. For the three-dimensional problems of Dongying hollow of Shengli Petroleum Oil Field, it puts forward a new model and a kind of modified method of upwind finite difference fractional steps implicit interactive scheme. For the famous hydraulic experiment of secondary migration–accumulation, the numerical simulation test has been done, and both the computational and experimental results are basically identical. For the actual problem of Dongying hollow, the numerical simulation test and the actual conditions are basically coincident. Thus, the well-known problem has been solved.     

Mobilization analysis of the dolmen of Dombate (Northwest Spain)

This paper presents an analysis of the mobilization of the dolmen of Dombate, a megalithic monument situated in the Northwest of Spain. The study is founded on simple static principles, with the application of basic concepts of soil mechanics (soil reactions were computed by the reaction modulus method) and rock mechanics (a simple secant approach was adopted to model the contact between orthostats). In addition, a simplified geometric model for dolmens was adopted. On the basis of these concepts, a numerical solver able to provide quick estimations of the system's mobilization was developed. Using this tool, a number of sensitivity analyses were conducted to estimate the mobilization that could be caused by a conservation project currently under consideration. It was found that mobilization might be excessive, and therefore, a safer procedure is proposed. In short, this paper puts forth a new rational approach for archaeological practices which may help to estimate the possible consequences of excavations and rehabilitations on megalithic structures.     

The age of the martian meteorite Northwest Africa 1195 and the differentiation history of the shergottites

Samarium-neodymium isotopic analyses of unleached and acid-leached mineral fractions from the recently identified olivine-bearing shergottite Northwest Africa 1195 yield a crystallization age of 347 ± 13 Ma and an value of +40.1 ± 0.9. Maskelynite fractions do not lie on the Sm-Nd isochron and appear to contain a martian surface component with low ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios that was added during shock. The Rb-Sr system is disturbed and does not yield an isochron. Terrestrial Sr appears to have affected all of the mineral fractions, although a maximum initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.7016 is estimated by passing a 347 Ma reference line through the maskelynite fraction that is least affected by contamination. The high initial value and the low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio, combined with the geologically young crystallization age, indicate that Northwest Africa 1195 is derived from a source region characterized by a long-term incompatible-element depletion.The age and initial Sr and Nd isotopic compositions of Northwest Africa 1195 are very similar to those of Queen Alexandra Range 94201, indicating these samples were derived from source regions with similar Sr-Nd isotopic systematics. These similarities suggest that these two meteorites share a close petrogenetic relationship and might have been erupted from a common volcano. The meteorites Yamato 980459, Dar al Gani 476, Sayh al Uhaymir 005/008, and Dhofar 019 also have relatively old ages between 474 and 575 Ma and trace element and/or isotopic systematics that are indicative of derivation from incompatible-element-depleted sources. This suggests that the oldest group of meteorites is more closely related to one another than they are to the younger meteorites that are derived from less incompatible-element-depleted sources. Closed-system fractional crystallization of this suite of meteorites is modeled with the MELTS algorithm using the bulk composition of Yamato 980459 as a parent. These models reproduce many of the major element and mineralogical variations observed in the suite. In addition, the rare earth element systematics of these meteorites are reproduced by fractional crystallization using the proportions of phases and extents of crystallization that are calculated by MELTS. Other shergottites that demonstrate enrichments in incompatible-elements and have evolved Sr and Nd isotopic systematics have some geochemical systematics that are similar to those observed in the depleted group. Most notably, although they exhibit a very limited range of incompatible trace element and isotopic compositions, they have highly variable major element compositions. This is also consistent with evolution from a common mantle source region by variable amounts of fractional crystallization. If this scenario is correct, it suggests that the combined effects of source composition and fractional crystallization are likely to account for the major element, trace element, and isotopic diversity of all shergottites.     

Experimental investigation of the effects of temperature and ionic strength on Mo isotope fractionation during adsorption to manganese oxides

The Mo stable isotope system is being applied to study changes in ocean redox. Such applications implicitly assume that Mo isotope fractionation in aqueous systems is relatively insensitive to frequently changing environmental variables such as temperature (T) and ionic strength (I). A major driver of fractionation is the adsorption of Mo to Mn oxyhydroxide surfaces [Barling J. and Anbar A. D. (2004) Molybdenum isotope fractionation during adsorption by manganese oxides. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.217(3-4), 315-329]. Here, we report the results of experiments that determine the extent to which Mo isotope fractionation during adsorption of Mo to the Mn oxyhydroxide mineral birnessite is sensitive to T and I. The results are compared to new predictions from quantum chemical computations. We measured fractionation from 1 to 50 °C at I = 0.1 m and found that Δ^97/95Mo_{dissolved-adsorbed} varies from 1.9‰ to 1.6‰ over this temperature range. Experiments were also performed at 25 °C in synthetic seawater (I = 0.7); fractionation at this condition was the same within analytical error as in low ionic strength experiments. These findings confirm that the Mo isotope fractionation during adsorption to Mn oxyhydroxides is relatively insensitive to variations and T and I over environmentally relevant ranges. To relate these findings to potential mechanisms of Mo isotope fractionation, we also report results for density functional theory computations of the fractionation between and various possible structures of molybdic acid as a function of temperature. Because no plausible species fractionates from with a magnitude matching the experiments, we are left with three possibilities to explain the fractionation: (1) solvation effects on the vibrational frequencies of aqueous species considered thus far are significant, such that our calculations in vacuo yield inaccurate fractionations; (2) a trace aqueous species not yet considered fractionates from and then adsorbs to birnessite; or (3) a surface complex not present in solution forms on birnessite in which Mo is not tetrahedrally coordinated. Our findings help validate assumptions underlying paleoceanographic applications of the Mo isotope system and also lead us closer to understanding the mechanism of isotope fractionation during adsorption of Mo to Mn oxyhydroxides.     

The features of the earthquake damage patterns of ancient city ruins in the Negev desert, Israel

During the last decades the ruins of Roman-Byzantine cities in the Negev desert of Israel have been the subject of intensive archeoseismic studies. A set of earthquake damage patterns was determined and several large scale earthquakes were identified as having occurred during the 2nd to 7th centuries AD. The ruins of buildings of the small village of Halssa provided a recent study of earthquake damage patterns that evolved quite recently—during the last 110 years.     

A technical note on seismic microzonation in the central United States

Microzonation is an effort to evaluate and map potential hazards found in an area, urban area in particular, that could be induced by strong ground shaking during an earthquake. These hazards include: ground motion amplification, liquefaction, and slope failure. The microzonation maps, depicting ground-motion amplification, liquefaction, and landslide potentials, can be produced if the ground motion on bedrock (input) and the site conditions are known. These maps, in combination with ground-motion hazard maps (on bedrock), can be used to develop a variety of hazard mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use planning. However, these maps have certain limitations that result from the nature of regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. These microzonations show that when strong ground shaking occurs, damage is more likely to occur, or be more severe, in the higher hazard areas. The zones shown on the hazard maps should not serve as a substitute for site-specific evaluations.     

Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects

Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion parameters. Therefore, a comprehensive study is carried out to assess the seismic hazard of Chennai city based on a deterministic approach. The seismicity and seismotectonic details within a 100 km radius of the study area have been considered. The one-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out for 38 representative sites by the equivalent linear method using the SHAKE91 program to estimate the ground motion parameters considering the local site effects. The shear wave velocity profile was inferred from the corrected blow counts and it was verified with the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) test performed for a representative site. The seismic hazard is represented in terms of characteristic site period and Spectral Acceleration Ratio (SAR) contours for the entire city. It is found that structures with low natural period undergo significant amplification mostly in the central and southern parts of Chennai city due to the presence of deep soil sites with clayey or sandy deposits and the remaining parts undergo marginal amplification.     

Spatial and Temporal Variability of the CO2 Fluxes in a Tropical, Highly Urbanized Estuary

The spatial and temporal variations of the flux of CO₂ were determined during 2007 in the Recife estuarine system (RES), a tropical estuary that receives anthropogenic loads from one of the most populated and industrialized areas of the Brazilian coast. The RES acts as a source of nutrients (N and P) for coastal waters. The calculated CO₂ fluxes indicate that the upstream inputs of CO₂ from the rivers are largely responsible for the net annual CO₂ emission to the atmosphere of +30 to +48 mmol m^?2 day^?1, depending on the CO₂ exchange calculation used, which mainly occurs during the late austral winter and early summer. The observed inverse relationship between the CO₂ flux and the net ecosystem production (NEP) indicates the high heterotrophy of the system (except for the months of November and December). The NEP varies between ?33 mmol m^?2 day^?1 in summer and ?246 mmol m^?2 day^?1 in winter. The pCO₂ values were permanently high during the study period (average ~4,700 μatm) showing a gradient between the inner (12,900 μatm) and lower (389 μatm) sections on a path of approximately 30 km. This reflects a state of permanent pollution in the basin due to the upstream loading of untreated domestic effluents (N/P?=?1,367:6 μmol kg^?1 and pH?=?6.9 in the inner section), resulting in the continuous mineralization of organic material by heterotrophic organisms and thereby increasing the dissolved CO₂ in estuarine waters.     

Subsurface characterization using seismic refraction and surface wave methods: a case of Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos State

This study contains the finding of geophysical investigations conducted at the proposed science complex site at Lagos State University, Ojo, Lagos, Nigeria. Surface wave and seismic refraction tests are non-invasive seismic techniques and have been used to determine the shear wave velocity profile of soil deposits. The methods provide a simplified characterization of subsurface in two-dimensional (2D) (distance and depth) profiles. Seismic records obtained were processed/analyzed by Seis-Imager software to obtain one-dimensional shear wave velocity (Vs) distribution. Multiple Vs obtained were integrated and used to construct two-dimensional Vs map. The measured P- and S-wave velocities were also used to estimate Poisson’s ratio, rigidity modulus, and N-values. The study had shown that the area investigated composed mainly of loose sediments (clay formation) to the depth of 12 m with P-wave velocity ranging between 125 and 205 m/s and corresponding S-wave velocity between 60 and 100 m/s. The results presented in this study will be vital information for the engineers in construction of the proposed science complex.