Comparison of transfer functions in statistical downscaling models for daily temperature and precipitation over Canada

This study compares three linear models and one non-linear model, specifically multiple linear regression (MLR) with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates, robust regression, ridge regression, and artificial neural networks (ANNs), to identify an appropriate transfer function in statistical downscaling (SD) models for the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (T_max and T_min) and daily precipitation occurrence and amounts (P_occ and P_amount). This comparison was made over twenty-five observation sites located in five different Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Québec). Reanalysis data were employed as atmospheric predictor variables of SD models. Predictors of linear transfer functions and ANN were selected by linear correlations coefficient and mutual information, respectively. For each downscaled case, annual and monthly models were developed and analysed. The monthly MLR, annual ANN, annual ANN, and annual MLR yielded the best performance for T_max, T_min, P_occ and P_amont according to the modified Akaike information criterion (AICu). A monthly MLR is recommended for the transfer functions of the four predictands because it can provide a better performance for the T_max and as good performance as the annual MLR for the T_min, P_occ, and P_amount. Furthermore, a monthly MLR can provide a slightly better performance than an annual MLR for extreme events. An annual MLR approach is also equivalently recommended for the transfer functions of the four predictands because it showed as good a performance as monthly MLR in spite of its mathematical simplicity. Robust and ridge regressions are not recommended because the data used in this study are not greatly affected by outlier data and multicollinearity problems. An annual ANN is recommended only for the T_min, based on the best performance among the models in terms of both the RMSE and AICu.     

Estimation of non-CO2 GHGs emissions by analyzing burn severity in the Samcheok fire, South Korea

This study was performed to estimate the emission of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases(GHGs) from biomass burning at a large fire area.The extended methodology adopted the IPCC Guidelines(2003) equation for use on data from the Samcheok forest fire gathered using 30 m resolution Landsat TM satellite imagery,digital forest type maps,and growing stock information per hectare by forest type in 1999.Normalized burn ratio(NBR) technique was employed to analyze the area and severity of the Samcheok forest fire that occurred in 2000.The differences between NBR from pre-and post-fire datasets are examined to determine the extent and degree of change detected from burning.The results of burn severity analysis by dNBR of the Samcheok forest fire area revealed that a total of 16,200 ha of forest were burned.The proportion of the area characterized by a ’Low’ burn severity(dNBR below 152) was 35%,with ’Moderate’(dNBR 153-190) and ’High’(dNBR 191-255) areas were at 33% and 32%,respectively.The combustion efficiency for burn severity was calculated as 0.43 for crown fire where burn severity was ’High’,as 0.40 for ’Moderate’ severity,and 0.15 for ’Low’ severity surface fire.The emission factors for estimating non-CO 2 GHGs were separately applied to CO 130,CH 4 9,NO x 0.7 and N 2 O 0.11.Non-CO 2 GHGs emissions from biomass burning in the Samcheok forest fire area were estimated to be CO 44.100,CH 4 3.053,NO x 0.238 and N 2 O 0.038 Gg.     

Temporal trend, spatial distribution, and terrestrial sources of PBDEs and PCBs in Masan Bay, Korea

Congener specific determination of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) was carried out in 21 surface sediment samples and a sediment core from Masan Bay, Korea. Among the 40 PBDE congeners targeted only 29 were detectable. PBDE congener profile within sediments was dominated by BDE-209 followed by BDEs-99, -47, -153 and -183, sequentially. In surface sediments, the average ΣPBDEs levels approached that of average ΣPCBs values. However, trends observed in the sediment core suggest that this pattern will alter over time and result in higher surface sediment PBDE concentrations than PCBs in future. Various diffuse and point sources for PBDEs and PCBs were identified in this location. Shipping and other industrial activities were associated with PCB contamination while domestic and industrial waste discharges corresponded with PBDE contamination. The average concentration for PBDEs and PCBs in surface sediments were 5.7, 7.2 ng/g dry weight, respectively.     

决策树在遥感影像分类中的应用

在充分了解决策二叉树分类过程的基础上, 以西藏波密地区的TM遥感影像为研究对象, 提取并分析各种典型地物的反射光谱特征, 利用不同地物的光谱差异并结合人工目视判读建立了一组能够精确、快速划分遥感影像的分类规则。用ENVI建立分类决策树对实验区遥感影像进行分类, 并将分类结果和传统的最大似然法相比较。结果表明:决策树分类的总体精度和Kappa分别为97.15%和0.9644, 优于传统的最大似然法, 取得了较为满意的分类结果。      

Soft‐sediment deformation structures in Cretaceous non‐marine deposits of southeastern Gyeongsang Basin,Korea: Occurrences and origin

A variety of soft‐sediment deformation structures formed during or shortly after deposition occurs in the Cretaceous Seongpori and Dadaepo Formations of the southeastern Gyeongsang Basin exposed along coastal areas of southeastern Korean Peninsula for 0.5–2 km. These are mostly present in a fluvial plain facies, with interbedded lacustrine deposits. In this study, the features of different kinds of soft‐sediment deformation structures have been interpreted on the basis of sedimentology of structure‐bearing deposits, comparison with normal sedimentary structures, timing and mechanism of deformation, and triggering mechanisms. The soft‐sediment deformation structures can be classified into four morphological groups: (i) load structures (load casts, ball‐and‐pillow structures); (ii) soft‐sediment intrusive structures (dish‐and‐pillars, clastic dykes, sills); (iii) ductile disturbed structures (convolute folds, slump structures); and (iv) brittle deformation structures (syndepositional faulting, dislocated breccia). The most probable triggering mechanisms resulting in these structures were seismic shocks. These interpretations are based on the following field observations: (i) location of the study area within tectonically active fault zone reactivated several times during the Cretaceous; (ii) deformation structures confined to single stratigraphic levels; (iii) lateral continuity and occurrences of various soft‐sediment deformation structures in the deformed level over large areas; (iv) absence of depositional slope to indicate gravity sliding or slumping; and (v) similarity to the structures produced experimentally. The soft‐sediment deformation structures in the study areas are thus interpreted to have been generated by seismic shocks with an estimated magnitude of M > 5, representing an intermittent record of the active tectonic and sedimentary processes during the development and evolution of two formations from the late Early Cretaceous to the Late Cretaceous.     

地应力影响煤层气勘探开发的研究现状与展望

通过总结评述前人关于地应力影响煤层气勘探开发的相关文献和成果,讨论了地应力与煤层气成藏、地应力与煤储层渗透率、地应力与煤储层压裂改造、地应力与煤层气井位部署的关系,对相关研究工作的未来走势进行了展望。认为：地应力控制着煤层气成藏过程中的各个环节,是影响煤层渗透率中最主要的因素,也是煤层气井压裂设计和井网部署必须考虑的重要参数。地应力研究对煤层气勘探开发意义重大,且亟待加强。     

Discrete displacement analysis for geographic linear features and the application to glacier termini

The extent of glacier terminus displacement is instrumental in investigations of natural or artificial geographic changes. Its importance to earth science and engineering is reflected in the considerable efforts that have been devoted to the development of several boundary displacement analysis methods. Among the methods, the buffering-based approach compares favorably with other approaches in objectivity and robustness. However, it does not consider the relative positions of boundaries, because its buffering operation cannot determine features' relative directions. This limitation incurs inaccurate calculation results – underestimation of mean shifts and overestimation of shape variations, especially when the two compared boundaries intersect. Discrete displacement analysis (DDA), an alternative method that considers given geographic objects as a set of a finite number of points, is proposed here. In a series of tests carried out, including Jakobshavn glacier's calving front, DDA was found to correctly calculate mean shift and shape variation even in cases where the conventional buffering-based method failed. Moreover, this approach is independent of the dimension of space in which it is implemented, and thus is expected to be utilized for analysis of 3D geographic object displacement.     

Verification and validation of a seismic response analysis code for framed structures using the ASI‐Gauss technique

In this report, the capabilities of the adaptively shifted integration (ASI)‐Gauss code in the analysis of the seismic responses of framed structures are verified and validated by comparing the results with detailed numerical simulations performed by the parallel finite element analysis code, E‐Simulator, and with experimental results obtained by E‐Defense. The numerical results obtained by both codes showed good agreement with the experimental results obtained by E‐Defense. Furthermore, seismic waves with unnaturally large magnitudes are applied to a high‐rise building model to demonstrate the ability of the ASI‐Gauss code to analyze the collapse behaviors of building frames. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change and resilience of tributary thermal refugia for salmonids in eastern Canadian rivers

Abstract

River water temperature regimes are expected to change along with climate over the next decades. This work focuses on three important salmon rivers of eastern Canada, two of which warm up most summers to temperatures higher than the Atlantic salmon lethal limit (>28°C). Water temperature was monitored at 53 sites on the three basins during 2–18 summers, with about half of these sites either known or potential thermal refugia for salmon. Site-specific statistical models predicting water temperature, based on 10 different climate scenarios, were developed in order to assess how many of these sites will remain cool enough to serve as refugia in the future (2046–2065). The results indicate that, while 19 of the 23 identified refugia will persist, important increases in the occurrence and duration of temperature events in excess of 24°C and 28°C, respectively, in the mainstems of the rivers, will lead to higher demands for thermal refugia in the salmonid populations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor T. Okruszko     

蜀南地区二叠系茅口组古岩溶地区水系分布及岩溶地貌单元特征*

蜀南地区茅口组为一套沉积稳定的巨厚层生物碎屑灰岩,基质致密性脆。中二叠世末的东吴运动使蜀南地区茅口组顶部发育古风化壳岩溶,古岩溶地区水系控制着古岩溶的发育和演化。在研究古地貌恢复方法的基础上,分析研究区地层特征和区域构造背景,采用印模法进行古地貌恢复,进而研究了古岩溶地区的水系发育特征。在此基础上,结合风化壳表面侵蚀溶蚀特征、沉积物性质、地貌组合形态、钻井和地震资料,把研究区划分为岩溶台地、岩溶陡坡、岩溶缓坡及岩溶盆地4种二级地貌单元和溶丘洼地、岩溶槽谷、峰林平原等10种三级地貌单元,进一步分析了各种地貌单元的岩溶特征,为下一步的储集层预测提供了有利的目标。