Proglacial groundwater storage dynamics under climate change and glacier retreat

Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.     

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

UV transit observations of EUV-heated expanded thermospheres of Earth-like exoplanets around M-stars: testing atmosphere evolution scenarios

The detection and investigation of EUV heated, extended and non-hydrostatic upper atmospheres around terrestrial exoplanets would provide important insights into the interaction of the host stars plasma environment as well as the evolution of Earth-type planets their atmospheres and possible magnetic environments. We discuss different scenarios where one can expect that Earth-like planets should experience non-hydrostatic upper atmosphere conditions so that dynamically outward flowing neutral atoms can interact with the stellar plasma flow so that huge hydrogen coronae and energetic neutral atoms (ENA) can be produced via charge exchange. By observing the size of the extended upper atmospheres and related ENA-clouds and by determining the velocities of the surrounding hydrogen atoms, conclusions can be drawn in respect to the origin of these features. Due to the large number of M-type stars in our neighbourhood and their long periods of strong and moderate stellar activity in comparison to G-stars, we expect that M-type stars represent the most promising candidates for the detection of hydrogen ENA-clouds and the subsequent study of the interaction between the host star and the planets?? upper atmosphere. We show that the low mass of M-type stars also makes them preferable targets to observe extended hydrogen clouds around terrestrial exoplanets with a mass as low as one Earth mass. Transit follow-up observations in the UV-range of terrestrial exoplanets around M-type stars with space observatories such as the World Space Observatory-UV (WSO-UV) would provide a unique opportunity to shed more light on the early evolution of Earth-like planets, including those of our own Solar System.     

Viscous ΛCDM universe models

We explore flat ΛCDM models with bulk viscosity, and study the role of the bulk viscosity in the evolution of these universe models. The dynamical equations for these models are obtained and solved for some cases of bulk viscosity. We obtain differential equations for the Hubble parameter H and the energy density of dark matter ρ _m , for which we give analytical solutions for some cases and for the general case we give a numerical solution. Also we calculate the statefinder parameters for these models and display them in the s–r-plane.     

Offshore Absolute Calibration of Space-Borne Radar Altimeters

Absolute calibration of sea level measurements collected from space-borne radar altimeters is usually performed with respect to collocated sea level in situ records from tide gauges or GPS buoys (Ménard et al. 1994 Ménard, Y., Jeansou, E. and Vincent, P. 1994. Calibration of the TOPEX-Poseidon altimeters at Lampedusa: Additional results at Harves. J. Geophys Res., 99(C12): 24487–24504. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029%2F94JC01300 [Google Scholar]; Haines et al. 1996 Haines, B. J., Christensen, E. J., Norman, R. A., Parke, M. E., Born, G. H. and Gill, S. K. 1996. Altimeter calibration and geophysical monitoring from collocated measurements at the Harvest oil platform. EOS Trans. Suppl., 77(22): W16 [Google Scholar]; Bonnefond et al. 2003; Haines et al. 2003 Haines, B. J., Dong, D., Born, G. H. and Gill, S. K. 2003. The Harvest experiment: Monitoring Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon from a California offshore platform. Mar. Geod., 26: 239–259. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Schum et al. 2003 Schum, C. K., Yi, Y., Cheng, K., Kuo, C., Braun, A., Calmant, S. and Chambers, D. 2003. Calibration of Jason-1 Altimeter over Lake Erie. Mar. Geod., 26: 335–354.  [Google Scholar]; Watson et al. 2003 Watson, C., Coleman, R., White, N., Church, J. and Govind, R. 2003. Absolute calibration of TOPEX/ Poseidon and Jason-1 using GPS buoys in Bass Strait, Australia. Mar. Geod., 26: 285–304. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Watson et al. 2004 Watson, C., White, N., Coleman, R., Church, J., Morgan, P. and Govind, R. 2004. TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1: Absolute calibration in Bass Strait, Australia. Mar. Geod., 27: 107–131. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080%2F01490410490465373[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Such a method allows regular and long-term control of altimetric systems with independent records. However, this approach is based on a single, geographically dependent point. In order to obtain more significant and accurate bias and drift estimates, there is a strong interest in multiplying the number of calibration opportunities. This article describes a method, called the “offshore method” that was developed to extend the single-point approach to a wider regional scale. The principle is to compare altimeter and tide gauge sea level data not only at the point of closest approach of an overflying pass, but also at distant points along adjacent satellite passes. However, connecting sea level satellite measurements with more distant in situ data requires a more accurate determination of the geoid and mean ocean dynamic topography slopes, and also of the ocean dynamical changes. In this demonstration experiment, 10 years of averaged TOPEX/Poseidon mean sea level profiles are used to precisely determine the geoid and the mean ocean circulation slope. The Mog2d barotropic ocean model (Carerre et Lyard 2003 Carrère, L. and Lyard, F. 2003. Modelling the barotropic response of the global ocean to atmospheric wind and pressure forcing-comparisons with observations. GRL, 30(6): 1275 [Google Scholar]) is used to improve our estimate of the ocean dynamics term. The method is first validated with Jason-1 data, off Corsica, where the dedicated calibration site of Senetosa provides independent reference data. The method is then applied to TOPEX/Poseidon on its new orbit and to Geosat Follow On. The results demonstrate that it is feasible to make altimeter calibrations a few tens to hundreds of kilometers away from a dedicated site, as long as accurate mean sea level altimeter profiles can be used to ensure the connection with reference tide gauges.     

A geographical information system for some Mediterranean benthic communities

Abstract

This paper describes a regional geographical information system (GIS) for some Mediterranean benthic communities. The area covered by the GIS lies between the cities of La Ciotat and Giens in southeast France. The distinctive characteristics of this GIS compared with others usually described in the literature, are that all its layers describe the same theme but as seen at different moments with different scales and techniques used by different oceanographers. A method was devised to synthesize, on a pixel basis, the content of all these layers. Each pixel within each layer is weighted with a function relating to the year of survey, the sampling technique and the scale of the original map corresponding to that layer. The synthesis map is composed of the highest weighted values found in the set of layers. Also at each pixel, conflicts between the contents of layers are quantified and mapped.     

The future of the western Baltic Sea: two possible scenarios

Globally coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year, high-resolution ocean model experiments (resolution less than 1 km) for the western Baltic Sea. The forcing is taken from a regional atmospheric model and a regional ocean model, imbedded into two global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period of 2000 to 2100 with each two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. For both scenarios, the results show a warming with an increase of 0.5–2.5 K at the sea surface and 0.7–2.8 K below 40 m. The simulations further indicate a decrease in salinity by 1.5–2 practical salinity units. The increase in water temperature leads to a prolongation of heat waves based on present-day thresholds. This amounts to a doubling or even tripling of the heat wave duration. The simulations show a decrease in inflow events (barotropic/baroclinic), which will affect the deepwater generation and ventilation of the central Baltic Sea. The high spatial resolution allows us to diagnose the inflow events and the mechanism that will cause future changes. The reduction in barotropic inflow events correlates well with the increase in westerly winds. The changes in the baroclinic inflows can be consistently explained by the reduction of calm wind periods and thus a weakening of the necessary stratification in the western Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits.     

DÉTERMINATION DU DÉBIT DES PUITS INCOMPLETS DE NAPPES LIBRES FONCÉS EN TERRAIN ISOTROPE ET ANISOTROPE

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the author relies on Darcy's law and on an hypothesis formulated from experimental considerations to establish a semi-empirical formula for the calculation of the discharge of partially penetrating wells of free aquifer sunk in isotropic soils.

This relatively simple relation applied to 27 cases studied under an experimental design or numerical computations, reveals itself to have an unexpected accuracy.

Starting from previous formula, the author establishes another one for partially penetrating wells bored in anisotropic soils.     

C) W.M.O.—E.C.A.F.E.

Abstract

The authors give data of water infiltrations in horizontal and vertical columns, and in a two dimensional model. The soils are two mixtures of sand and loam, and a natural sandy loam. The characteristics of these soils are given in the article.

As a conclusion, the two dimensional problem can be approached by a linear combination of data in horizontal and vertical columns.