Is correlation dimension a reliable proxy for the number of dominant influencing variables for modeling risk of arsenic contamination in groundwater?

The correlation dimension (CD) of a time series provides information on the number of dominant variables present in the evolution of the underlying system dynamics. In this study, we explore, using logistic regression (LR), possible physical connections between the CD and the mathematical modeling of risk of arsenic contamination in groundwater. Our database comprises a large-scale arsenic survey conducted in Bangladesh. Following the recommendation by Hossain and Sivakumar (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 20(1–2):66–76, 2006), who reported CD values ranging from 8 to 11 for this database, 11 variables are considered herein as indicators of the aquifer’s geochemical regime with potential influence on the arsenic concentration in groundwater. A total of 2,048 possible combinations of influencing variables are considered as candidate LR risk models to delineate the impact of the number of variables on the prediction accuracy of the model. We find that the uncertainty associated with prediction of wells as safe and unsafe by LR risk model declines systematically as the total number of influencing variables increases from 7 to 11. The sensitivity of the mean predictive performance also increases noticeably for this range. The consistent reduction in predictive uncertainty coupled with the increased sensitivity of the mean predictive behavior within the universal sample space exemplify the ability of CD to function as a proxy for the number of dominant influencing variables. Such a rapid proxy, based on non-linear dynamic concepts, appears to have considerable merit for application in current management strategies on arsenic contamination in developing countries, where both time and resources are very limited.     

Twentieth century agricultural drainage creates more erosive rivers

Rivers in watersheds dominated by agriculture throughout the US are impaired by excess sediment, a significant portion of which comes from non‐field, near‐channel sources. Both land‐use and climate have been implicated in altering river flows and thereby increasing stream‐channel erosion and sediment loading. In the wetland‐rich landscapes of the upper Mississippi basin, 20th century crop conversions have led to an intensification of artificial drainage, which is now a critical component of modern agriculture. At the same time, much of the region has experienced increased annual rainfall. Uncertainty in separating these drivers of streamflow fuels debate between agricultural and environmental interests on responsibility and solutions for excess riverine sediment. To disentangle the effects of climate and land‐use, we compared changes in precipitation, crop conversions, and extent of drained depressional area in 21 Minnesota watersheds over the past 70 years. Watersheds with large land‐use changes had increases in seasonal and annual water yields of >50% since 1940. On average, changes in precipitation and crop evapotranspiration explained less than one‐half of the increase, with the remainder highly correlated with artificial drainage and loss of depressional areas. Rivers with increased flow have experienced channel widening of 10–40% highlighting a source of sediment seldom addressed by agricultural best management practices. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An isotopic calibration study of precipitation,cave dripwater,and climate in west‐central Florida

A calibration study of oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition from precipitation and cave dripwater was conducted in west‐central Florida at Legend Cave during 2007–2008. This study was performed to better understand how modern precipitation patterns can be discerned through examination of cave dripwater and speleothem calcite for paleoclimate reconstruction. The ‘amount effect’ was shown to be a dominant control on the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation for the study area. A meteoric water line with a slope of 6·7 suggests evaporative effects occur either during precipitation or subsequent hydrological processes. However, δ¹⁸O values of cave dripwater averaged near the mean annual amount‐weighted average of precipitation, suggesting that the isotopic composition of dripwater tracks the long‐term average of rainfall. An observed weak seasonal influence occurred in the d‐excess values, with summer precipitation being more enriched due to increased evaporative effects. Comparison of precipitation δ¹⁸O values to synoptic weather data shows the dominant amount effect influence occurs due to strong convective storms producing highly ¹⁸O‐depleted rainfall at greater amounts during the year. Constant δ¹⁸O values of the dripwater indicate that paleoclimate reconstructions using speleothems from this area would record changes in annual to interannual shifts in precipitation amount above the cave. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling rating curves using remotely sensed LiDAR data

Accurate stream discharge measurements are important for many hydrological studies. In remote locations, however, it is often difficult to obtain stream flow information because of the difficulty in making the discharge measurements necessary to define stage‐discharge relationships (rating curves). This study investigates the feasibility of defining rating curves by using a fluid mechanics‐based model constrained with topographic data from an airborne LiDAR scanning. The study was carried out for an 8m‐wide channel in the boreal landscape of northern Sweden. LiDAR data were used to define channel geometry above a low flow water surface along the 90‐m surveyed reach. The channel topography below the water surface was estimated using the simple assumption of a flat streambed. The roughness for the modelled reach was back calculated from a single measurment of discharge. The topographic and roughness information was then used to model a rating curve. To isolate the potential influence of the flat bed assumption, a ‘hybrid model’ rating curve was developed on the basis of data combined from the LiDAR scan and a detailed ground survey. Whereas this hybrid model rating curve was in agreement with the direct measurements of discharge, the LiDAR model rating curve was equally in agreement with the medium and high flow measurements based on confidence intervals calculated from the direct measurements. The discrepancy between the LiDAR model rating curve and the low flow measurements was likely due to reduced roughness associated with unresolved submerged bed topography. Scanning during periods of low flow can help minimize this deficiency. These results suggest that combined ground surveys and LiDAR scans or multifrequency LiDAR scans that see ‘below’ the water surface (bathymetric LiDAR) could be useful in generating data needed to run such a fluid mechanics‐based model. This opens a realm of possibility to remotely sense and monitor stream flows in channels in remote locations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Acidification recovery in a changing climate: Observations from thirty-five years of stream chemistry monitoring in forested headwater catchments at the Turkey Lakes watershed,Ontario

Long-term ecosystem studies are valuable for understanding integrated ecosystem response to global changes in atmospheric deposition and climate. We examined trends for a 35-year period (1982/83–2017/18) in concentrations of a range of solutes in precipitation and stream water from nine headwater catchments spanning elevation and surficial geology gradients at the Turkey Lakes watershed (TLW) in northeastern Ontario, Canada. Average annual water year (WY, October to September) concentrations in precipitation significantly declined over the period for sulphate (SO₄²⁻), nitrate (NO₃⁻) and chloride (Cl⁻), while calcium (Ca²⁺) and potassium (K⁺) concentrations increased, resulting in a significant pH increase from 4.2 to 5.7. Trends in stream chemistry through time are generally consistent with expectations associated with acidification recovery. Concentration of many stream water solutes (SO₄²⁻, Cl⁻, calcium [Ca²⁺], magnesium [Mg²⁺] and NH₄⁺ generally decreased, while others (silica [SiO₂] and dissolved organic carbon [DOC]) generally increased. Increases were also observed for alkalinity (six of nine catchments), acid neutralizing capacity ([ANC]; six of nine catchments) and pH (eight of nine catchments), while conductivity declined (six of nine catchments). Variability in trends among catchments are associated with differences in surficial geology and wetland cover. While absolute solute concentrations were generally lower at bedrock dominated high-elevation catchments compared to till dominated lower elevation catchments, the rate of change of concentration was often greater for high elevation catchments. This study confirms continued, but non-linear stream chemistry recovery from acidification, particularly at the less buffered high and moderate elevation sites. The heterogeneity of responses among catchments highlights our incomplete understanding of the relative importance of different mechanisms influencing stream chemistry and the consequences for downstream ecosystems.     

10Be ages of late Pleistocene deglaciation and Neoglaciation in the north‐central Brooks Range,Arctic Alaska

We present a chronology of late Pleistocene deglaciation and Neoglaciation for two valleys in the north‐central Brooks Range, Alaska, using cosmogenic ¹⁰Be exposure dating. The two valleys show evidence of ice retreat from the northern range front before ～16–15 ka, and into individual cirques by ～14 ka. There is no evidence for a standstill or re‐advance during the Lateglacial period, indicating that a glacier advance during the Younger Dryas, if any, was less extensive than during the Neoglaciation. The maximum glacier expansion during the Neoglacial is delimited by moraines in two cirques separated by about 200 km and dated to 4.6 ± 0.5 and 2.7 ± 0.2 cal ka BP. Both moraine ages agree with previously published lichen‐inferred ages, and confirm that glaciers in the Brooks Range experienced multiple advances of similar magnitude throughout the late Holocene. The similar extent of glaciers during the middle Holocene and the Little Ice Age may imply that the effect of decreasing summer insolation was surpassed by increasing aridity to limit glacier growth as Neoglaciation progressed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water–groundwater model

Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence on subsequent simulations. A key challenge in model initialization is that it requires spatially distributed information on model states, groundwater levels and soil moisture, even when such data are not routinely available. Here, the impact of uncertainty in initial condition was explored across a 208 km² catchment in Denmark using the ParFlow.CLM model. The initialization impact was assessed under two meteorological conditions (wet vs dry) using five depth to water table and soil moisture distributions obtained from various equilibrium states (thermal, root zone, discharge, saturated and unsaturated zone equilibrium) during the model spin‐up. Each of these equilibrium states correspond to varying computation times to achieve stability in a particular aspect of the system state. Results identified particular sensitivity in modelled recharge and stream flow to the different initializations, but reduced sensitivity in modelled energy fluxes. Analysis also suggests that to simulate a year that is wetter than the spin‐up period, an initialization based on discharge equilibrium is adequate to capture the direction and magnitude of surface water–groundwater exchanges. For a drier or hydrologically similar year to the spin‐up period, an initialization based on groundwater equilibrium is required. Variability of monthly subsurface storage changes and discharge bias at the scale of a hydrological event show that the initialization impacts do not diminish as the simulations progress, highlighting the importance of robust and accurate initialization in capturing surface water–groundwater dynamics. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing resident and tourist preferences for public beach access and related amenities

As coastal destinations continue to grow, due to tourism and residential expansion, the demand for public beach access and related amenities will also increase. The issue confronting management agencies responsible for providing and maintaining public beach access and related amenities is the varying needs and preferences of both residents and tourists of coastal destinations. The purpose of this paper is to provide comprehensive information about coastal recreational needs of residents and tourists with regards to public beach access and associated amenities using the stated preference choice method. Overall, the results indicate tourists were more interested in additional public beach access points and commercial development, while residents supported beach rules and regulations but opposed high levels of crowding and noise. Implications of these results for management agencies include the utilization of parking fees to subsidize additional public beach access points, identifying appropriate types and levels of commercial development that moderate the use of coastal resources by tourists and day-trip users, and implementing beach rules and regulations that reduce the potential for conflict between user groups. Providing management agencies with comprehensive information of the preferences of different beach user groups can assist in the development of more effective policies and management programs.     

An improved hemispherical photography model for stream surface shortwave radiation estimations in a central U.S. hardwood forest

Hemispherical photographs of forest canopies can be used to develop sophisticated models that predict incident below canopy shortwave radiation on the surface of interest (i.e. soil and water). Hemispherical photographs were collected on eight dates over the course of a growing season to estimate leaf area index and to quantify solar radiation incident on the surface of two stream reaches based on output from Gap Light Analyser and Hemisfer software. Stream reaches were shaded by a mixed‐deciduous Ozark border forested riparian canopy. Hemispherical photo model results were compared to observed solar radiation sensed at climate stations adjacent to each stream reach for the entire 2010 water year. Modeled stream‐incident shortwave radiation was validated with above‐stream pyranometers for the month of September. On average, the best hemispherical photo models underestimated daily averages of solar radiation by approximately 14% and 12% for E–W and N–S flowing stream reaches, respectively (44.7 W/m² measured vs 38.4 W/m² modeled E–W, 46.8 W/m² vs. 41.1 W/m²N–S). The best hemispherical photo models overestimated solar radiation relative to in–Stream pyranometers placed in the center of each stream reach by approximately 7% and 17% for E–W and N–S stream reaches respectively (31.3 W/m² measured vs 33.5 W/m² modeled E–W, 31.5 W/m² vs. 37.1 W/m²N–S). The model provides a geographically transferable means for quantifying changes in the solar radiation regime at a stream surface due to changes in canopy density through a growing season, thus providing a relatively simple method for estimating surface and water heating in canopy altered environments (e.g. forest harvest). Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.