CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December–February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS.     

From Small-Scale Dynamo to Isotropic MHD Turbulence

We consider the problem of incompressible, forced, nonhelical, homogeneous, isotropic MHD turbulence with no mean magnetic field. This problem is essentially different from the case with externally imposed uniform mean field. There is no scale-by-scale equipartition between magnetic and kinetic energies as would be the case for the Alfvén-wave turbulence. The isotropic MHD turbulence is the end state of the turbulent dynamo which generates folded fields with small-scale direction reversals. We propose that the statistics seen in numerical simulations of isotropic MHD turbulence could be explained as a superposition of these folded fields and Alfvén-like waves that propagate along the folds.     

Lava lakes on Io: observations of Io's volcanic activity from Galileo NIMS during the 2001 fly-bys

Galileo's Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) obtained its final observations of Io during the spacecraft's fly-bys in August (I31) and October 2001 (I32). We present a summary of the observations and results from these last two fly-bys, focusing on the distribution of thermal emission from Io's many volcanic regions that give insights into the eruption styles of individual hot spots. We include a compilation of hot spot data obtained from Galileo, Voyager, and ground-based observations. At least 152 active volcanic centers are now known on Io, 104 of which were discovered or confirmed by Galileo observations, including 23 from the I31 and I32 Io fly-by observations presented here. We modify the classification scheme of Keszthelyi et al. (2001, J. Geophys. Res. 106 (E12) 33 025-33 052) of Io eruption styles to include three primary types: promethean (lava flow fields emplaced as compound pahoehoe flows with small plumes <200 km high originating from flow fronts), pillanian (violent eruptions generally accompanied by large outbursts, >200 km high plumes and rapidly-emplaced flow fields), and a new style we call “lokian” that includes all eruptions confined within paterae with or without associated plume eruptions). Thermal maps of active paterae from NIMS data reveal hot edges that are characteristic of lava lakes. Comparisons with terrestrial analogs show that Io's lava lakes have thermal properties consistent with relatively inactive lava lakes. The majority of activity on Io, based on locations and longevity of hot spots, appears to be of this third type. This finding has implications for how Io is being resurfaced as our results imply that eruptions of lava are predominantly confined within paterae, thus making it unlikely that resurfacing is done primarily by extensive lava flows. Our conclusion is consistent with the findings of Geissler et al. (2004, Icarus, this issue) that plume eruptions and deposits, rather than the eruption of copious amounts of effusive lavas, are responsible for Io's high resurfacing rates. The origin and longevity of islands within ionian lava lakes remains enigmatic.     

Crust‐scale 3D model of the Western Bredasdorp Basin (Southern South Africa): data‐based insights from combined isostatic and 3D gravity modelling

The southern South African continental margin documents a complex margin system that has undergone both continental rifting and transform processes in a manner that its present‐day architecture and geodynamic evolution can only be better understood through the application of a multidisciplinary and multi‐scale geo‐modelling procedure. In this study, we focus on the proximal section of the larger Bredasdorp sub‐basin (the westernmost of the five southern South African offshore Mesozoic sub‐basins), which is hereto referred as the Western Bredasdorp Basin. Integration of 1200 km of 2D seismic‐reflection profiles, well‐logs and cores yields a consistent 3D structural model of the Upper Jurassic‐Cenozoic sedimentary megasequence comprising six stratigraphic layers that represent the syn‐rift to post‐rift successions with geometric information and lithology‐depth‐dependent properties (porosities and densities). We subsequently applied a combined approach based on Airy's isostatic concept and 3D gravity modelling to predict the depth to the crust‐mantle boundary (Moho) as well as the density structure of the deep crust. The best‐fit 3D model with the measured gravity field is only achievable by considering a heterogeneous deep crustal domain, consisting of an uppermost less dense prerift meta‐sedimentary layer [ρ = 2600 kg m^?3] with a series of structural domains. To reproduce the observed density variations for the Upper Cenomanian–Cenozoic sequence, our model predicts a cumulative eroded thickness of ca. 800–1200 m of Tertiary sediments, which may be related to the Late Miocene margin uplift. Analyses of the key features of the first crust‐scale 3D model of the basin, ranging from thickness distribution pattern, Moho shallowing trend, sub‐crustal thinning to shallow and deep crustal extensional regimes, suggest that basin initiation is typical of a mantle involvement deep‐seated pull‐apart setting that is associated with the development of the Agulhas‐Falkland dextral shear zone, and that the system is not in isostatic equilibrium at present day due to a mass excess in the eastern domain of the basin that may be linked to a compensating rise of the asthenospheric mantle during crustal extension. Further corroborating the strike‐slip setting is the variations of sedimentation rates through time. The estimated syn‐rift sedimentation rates are three to four times higher than the post‐rift sedimentation, thereby indicating that a rather fast and short‐lived subsidence during the syn‐rift phase is succeeded by a significantly poor passive margin development in the post‐rift phase. Moreover, the derived lithospheric stretching factors [β = 1.5–1.75] for the main basin axis do not conform to the weak post‐rift subsidence. This therefore suggests that a differential thinning of the crust and the mantle‐lithosphere typical for strike‐slip basins, rather than the classical uniform stretching model, may be applicable to the Western Bredasdorp Basin.     

Mass‐balance modeling of mineral weathering rates and CO2 consumption in the forested,metabasaltic Hauver Branch watershed,Catoctin Mountain,Maryland, USA

Mineral weathering rates and a forest macronutrient uptake stoichiometry were determined for the forested, metabasaltic Hauver Branch watershed in north‐central Maryland, USA. Previous studies of Hauver Branch have had an insufficient number of analytes to permit determination of rates of all the minerals involved in chemical weathering, including biomass. More equations in the mass‐balance matrix were added using existing mineralogic information. The stoichiometry of a deciduous biomass term was determined using multi‐year weekly to biweekly stream‐water chemistry for a nearby watershed, which drains relatively unreactive quartzite bedrock. At Hauver Branch, calcite hosts ~38 mol% of the calcium ion (Ca²⁺) contained in weathering minerals, but its weathering provides ~90% of the stream water Ca²⁺. This occurs in a landscape with a regolith residence time of more than several Ka (kiloannum). Previous studies indicate that such old regolith does not typically contain dissolving calcite that affects stream Ca²⁺/Na⁺ ratios. The relatively high calcite dissolution rate likely reflects dissolution of calcite in fractures of the deep critical zone. Of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) consumed by mineral weathering, calcite is responsible for approximately 27%, with the silicate weathering consumption rate far exceeding that of the global average. The chemical weathering of mafic terrains in decaying orogens thus may be capable of influencing global geochemical cycles, and therefore, climate, on geological timescales. Based on carbon‐balance calculations, atmospheric‐derived sulfuric acid is responsible for approximately 22% of the mineral weathering occurring in the watershed. Our results suggest that rising air temperatures, driven by global warming and resulting in higher precipitation, will cause the rate of chemical weathering in the Hauver Branch watershed to increase until a threshold temperature is reached. Beyond the threshold temperature, increased recharge would produce a shallower groundwater table and reduced chemical weathering rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental and cultural changes in highland Guatemala inferred from Lake Amatitlán sediments

We inferred the late Holocene environmental history of the Guatemala highlands from multiple lines of evidence in a sediment core from Lake Amatitlán. Inferred environmental changes are generally synchronous with archaeologically documented highland Maya cultural shifts. Population increases in the Middle Preclassic, Early Classic, and Late Postclassic are associated with deforestation and soil erosion. Land abandonment in the Late Preclassic, Late Classic, and Early Postclassic is associated with evidence for reforestation and soil stabilization. Diatoms indicate relatively lower lake level and greater trophic status at times of reduced human impact, from ca. 250 B.C. to A.D. 125 and from ca. A.D. 875 to 1375. Decreased water levels were probably due to drier climate, to reforestation, or both. Lake eutrophication was caused by reduced water volume combined with a legacy of long‐term agricultural activity. Our data contribute to the understanding of relations among ancient Maya culture, climate, and environment. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The cost of meeting increased cooling-water demands for CO2 capture and storage utilizing non-traditional waters from geologic saline formations

Deep (> ～800 m) saline water-bearing formations in the United States have substantial pore volume that is targeted for storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and the associated saline water can be extracted to increase CO₂ storage efficiency, manage pressure build up, and create a new water source that, once treated, can be used for power-plant cooling or other purposes. Extraction, treatment and disposal costs of saline formation water to meet added water demands from CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) are discussed. This underutilized water source may be important in meeting new water demand associated with CCS. For a representative natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plant, simultaneous extraction of brine from the storage formation could provide enough water to meet all CCS-related cooling demands for 177 out of the 185 (96 %) saline formations analyzed in this study. Calculated total cost of water extraction, treatment and disposal is less than 4.00 US Dollars (USD) m^?3 for 93 % of the 185 formations considered. In 90 % of 185 formations, treated water costs are less than 10.00 USD tonne^?1 of CO₂ injected. On average, this represents approximately 6 % of the total CO₂ capture and injection costs for the NGCC scenario.     

The deep geothermal potential of the Berlin area

In this study, we model the geothermal potential of deep geological formations located in the Berlin region in Germany. Berlin is situated in a sedimentary geological setting (northeastern German basin), comprising low-enthalpic aquifers at horizons down to 4–5 km depth. In the Berlin region, the temperature increases almost linearly with depth by about 30 K per kilometer, thus allowing for direct heating from deep aquifer reservoirs in principle. Our model incorporates eight major sedimentary units (Jurassic, Keuper, Muschelkalk, Upper/Middle/Lower Buntsandstein, Zechstein Salt and Sedimentary Rotliegend). Owing to lack of available petro-physical rock data for the Berlin region, we have evaluated literature data for the larger northeastern German basin to develop a thermodynamic field model which regards depth-corrected equations of state within statistical intervals of confidence. Integration over the thicknesses of the respective structural units yields their “heat in place”—energy densities associated with the pore fluid and the rock matrix under local conditions in Joule per unit area at the surface. The model predicts that aquifers in the Middle Buntsandstein and in the Sedimentary Rotliegend may well exhibit energy densities about 10 GJ m^?2 for the pore fluids and 20 GJ m^?2 to 40 GJ m^?2 for the rock matrices on average. Referring these figures to the city area of Berlin (about 892 km²), a significant hydrothermal potential results, which however remained undeveloped until today for the reason of present development risks. The model accounts for these risks through statistical intervals of confidence which are in the order of ±60 to ±80 % of the trend figures. To minimize these uncertainties, scientific field explorations were required in order to assess the petro-physical aquifer properties locally.     

Organic sedimentary deposits in Titan’s dry lakebeds: Probable evaporite

We report the discovery of organic sedimentary deposits at the bottom of dry lakebeds near Titan’s north pole in observations from the Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS). We show evidence that the deposits are evaporitic, making Titan just the third known planetary body with evaporitic processes after Earth and Mars, and is the first that uses a solvent other than water.     

Electron transport and precipitation at Mercury during the MESSENGER flybys: Implications for electron-stimulated desorption

To examine electron transport, energization, and precipitation in Mercury's magnetosphere, a hybrid simulation study has been carried out that follows electron trajectories within the global magnetospheric electric and magnetic field configuration of Mercury. We report analysis for two solar-wind parameter conditions corresponding to the first two MESSENGER Mercury flybys on January 14, 2008, and October 6, 2008, which occurred for similar solar wind speed and density but contrasting interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) directions. During the first flyby the IMF had a northward component, while during the second flyby the IMF was southward. Electron trajectories are traced in the fields of global hybrid simulations for the two flybys. Some solar wind electrons follow complex trajectories at or near where dayside reconnection occurs and enter the magnetosphere at these locations. The entry locations depend on the IMF orientation (north or south). As the electrons move through the entry regions they can be energized as they execute non-adiabatic (demagnetized) motion. Some electrons become magnetically trapped and drift around the planet with energies on the order of 1–10 keV. The highest energy of electrons anywhere in the magnetosphere is about 25 keV, consistent with the absence of high-energy (>35 keV) electrons observed during either MESSENGER flyby. Once within the magnetosphere, a fraction of the electrons precipitates at the planetary surface with fluxes on the order of 10⁹ cm⁻² s⁻¹ and with energies of hundreds of eV. This finding has important implications for the viability of electron-stimulated desorption (ESD) as a mechanism for contributing to the formation of the exosphere and heavy ion cloud around Mercury. From laboratory estimates of ESD ion yields, a calculated ion production rate due to ESD at Mercury is found to be on par with ion sputtering yields.