Interannual Variation in Photosynthetically Significant Optical Properties and Water Quality in a Coastal Blackwater River Plume

Surface water optical characteristics, nutrients, and planktonic chlorophyll a concentrations were analyzed in the Cape Fear River (CFR) plume over a 2-year period. CFR discharge during the dry year (109 ± 105 m³s⁻¹) was only 25% of the wet year discharge (429 ± 337 m³s⁻¹). Partitioning the contributions of phytoplankton pigments, non-pigmented particles, and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) to the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) indicated that CDOM was the dominant contributor to PAR absorption. Particulate absorption was relatively greater during the dry year. Pigment absorption was minor and varied little among stations or between years. Chlorophyll a concentrations were reduced at the most plume-influenced stations during the wet year, despite lower turbidity and higher nitrate concentrations. Ammonium and orthophosphate concentrations were not different between years. CDOM absorption [a _CDOM (412)] ranged from 0.05 to 8.25 m⁻¹ with highest values occurring near the CFR mouth. Our results suggest that for coastal ecosystems with significant blackwater river inputs, CDOM may exert a major limiting influence over near-shore primary production.     

Whole-basin,mass-balance approach for identifying critical phosphorus-loading thresholds in shallow lakes

Lake Lochloosa, Florida (USA) recently underwent a shift from macrophyte to phytoplankton dominance, offering us the opportunity to use a whole-basin, mass-balance approach to investigate the influence of phosphorus loading on ecosystem change in a shallow, sub-tropical lake. We analyzed total phosphorus (TP) sedimentation in the basin to improve our understanding of the forcing factor responsible for the recent shift to phytoplankton dominance. We measured ²¹⁰Pb activity, organic matter (OM), organic carbon (OC) and TP in short sediment cores from 20 locations to develop a comprehensive, whole-basin estimate of recent mass sedimentation rates (MSR) for bulk sediment, OM, OC and TP. The whole-basin sedimentation models provided insights into historic lake processes that were not evident from the limited, historic water quality data. We used Akaike’s Information Criteria to differentiate statistically between constant MSR and exponentially increasing MSR. An eightfold, exponential increase in TP accumulation over the past century provided evidence for the critical role of increased P loading as a forcing factor in the recent shift to phytoplankton dominance. Model results show increased TP retention and decreased TP residence time were in-lake responses to increased TP loading and the shift from macrophyte to phytoplankton dominance in Lake Lochloosa. Comparison of TP loading with TP retention and historic, diatom-inferred limnetic TP concentrations identified the TP loading threshold that was exceeded to trigger the shift to phytoplankton dominance.     

Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO₂ step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO₂ step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO₂ constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 10²⁴ J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.     

Analysis of Urban Atmosphere Plume Concentration Fluctuations

Concentration variability in the fast-response tracer dataset for continuous, near-surface, point source releases in the urban core from the Joint Urban 2003 field study is analyzed. Concentration variability for conditionally and unconditionally sampled time series is characterized by probability densities, concentration fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis. Significant day-night differences in plume dispersion are observed. Relative to daytime, nighttime plumes were more likely to have reduced concentration fluctuation intensities, higher normalized surface concentrations, suppressed vertical mixing, and a greater prevalence of Gaussian-like distributions rather than log-normal or mixed mode distributions. This was in spite of the similar stability and turbulence conditions in the urban core for day and night. The potential roles of flow meander and thermal stability in explaining these differences are examined. Probability densities of concentration are found to be a strong function of fluctuation intensity. There are few differences in probability densities between day and night when classified by fluctuation intensity. There are no appreciable differences between conditional and unconditional probability densities and only small differences between conditional and unconditional sampling statistics relative to the larger differences usually observed in more homogeneous settings. Fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis are higher for the daytime experiments, and closer to the source, but show little difference between conditional and unconditional results over most of their range of values. The log-normal distribution provides a better overall fit to a broader range of the dataset than the exponential or clipped-normal distributions.     

The age and origin of a thick mafic–ultramafic keel from beneath the Sierra Nevada batholith

We present evidence for a thick (∼100 km) sequence of cogenetic rocks which make up the root of the Sierra Nevada batholith of California. The Sierran magmatism produced tonalitic and granodioritic magmas which reside in the Sierra Nevada upper- to mid-crust, as well as deep eclogite facies crust/upper mantle mafic–ultramafic cumulates. Samples of the mafic–ultramafic sequence are preserved as xenoliths in Miocene volcanic rocks which erupted through the central part of the batholith. We have performed Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd mineral geochronologic analyses on seven fresh, cumulate textured, olivine-free mafic–ultramafic xenoliths with large grainsize, one garnet peridotite, and one high pressure metasedimentary rock. The garnet peridotite, which equilibrated at ∼130 km beneath the batholith, yields a Miocene (10 Ma) Nd age, indicating that in this sample, the Nd isotopes were maintained in equilibrium up to the time of entrainment. All other samples equilibrated between ∼35 and 100 km beneath the batholith and yield Sm-Nd mineral ages between 80 and 120 Ma, broadly coincident with the previously established period of most voluminous batholithic magmatism in the Sierra Nevada. The Rb-Sr ages are generally consistent with the Sm-Nd ages, but are more scattered. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd intercepts of the igneous-textured xenoliths are similar to the ratios published for rocks outcroping in the central Sierra Nevada. We interpret the mafic/ultramafic xenoliths to be magmatically related to the upper- and mid-crustal granitoids as cumulates and/or restites. This more complete view of the vertical dimension in a batholith indicates that there is a large mass of mafic–ultramafic rocks at depth which complement the granitic batholiths, as predicted by mass balance calculations and experimental studies. The Sierran magmatism was a large scale process responsible for segregating a column of ∼30 km thick granitoids from at least ∼70 km of mainly olivine free mafic–ultramafic residues/cumulates. These rocks have resided under the batholith as granulite and eclogite facies rocks for at least 70 million years. The presence of this thick mafic–ultramafic keel also calls into question the existence of a “flat” (i.e., shallowly subducted) slab at Central California latitudes during Late Cretaceous–Early Cenozoic, in contrast to the southernmost Sierra Nevada and Mojave regions. Received: 27 December 1997 / Accepted: 11 June 1998