Time scales of DNAPL migration in sandy aquifers examined via numerical simulation

The time required for dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) to cease migrating following release to the subsurface is a valuable component of a site conceptual model. This study uses numerical simulation to investigate the migration of six different DNAPLs in sandy aquifers. The most influential parameters governing migration cessation time are the density and viscosity of the DNAPL and the mean hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. Releases of between 1 and 40 drums of chlorinated solvent DNAPLs, characterized by relatively high density and low viscosity, require on the order of months to a few years to cease migrating in a heterogeneous medium sand aquifer having an average hydraulic conductivity of 7.4 x 10(-3) cm/s. In contrast to this, the release of 20 drums of coal tar (rho(D)= 1061 kg/m(3), micro(D)= 0.161 Pa.s) requires more than 100 years to cease migrating in the same aquifer. Altering the mean hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer results in a proportional change in cessation times. Parameters that exhibit relatively little influence on migration time scales are the DNAPL-water interfacial tension, release volume, source capillary pressure, mean aquifer porosity, and ambient ground water hydraulic gradient. This study also demonstrates that low-density DNAPLs (e.g., coal tar) give rise to greater amounts of lateral spreading and greater amounts of pooling on capillary barriers than high-density DNAPLs such as trichloroethylene or tetrachloroethylene.     

Late Miocene paleoenvironment of the Lambert Graben embayment, East Antarctica, evident from: Mollusc paleontology, sedimentology and geochemistry

The Upper Miocene (10.7–9.0 Ma) Battye Glacier Formation was deposited 250 km inland from the modern Amery Ice Shelf edge in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica. The composition of clay minerals distinguishes a Lower Member, which reflects regional erosion of Precambrian metamorphic basement, from an Upper Member, which records increased erosion of local Permian–Triassic Amery Group strata. The Upper Member was deposited in an ice-proximal environment akin to the modern fjords of East Greenland, with substantial diamict deposition resulting from melting iceberg discharge. The Lower Member was deposited in an ice-distal environment and included the accumulation of the fossil-bearing McLeod Beds. The McLeod Beds contain much siliceous biogenic sediment (≤ 15% opal), which is rare to absent in the predominantly hemipelagic mud of modern East Greenland fjords. The McLeod Beds also contain largely monospecific in situ Hiatella sp. mollusc assemblages suggestive of environmental stress, potentially caused by low salinity melt-water and a high input of terrigenous sediment, which excluded most other benthic taxa. Geochemical results from primary aragonite in Hiatella shells imply large freshwater input into the marine environment during mollusc growth, causing low δ¹⁸O, Na, Mg and high Fe values. The present study indicates that iceberg melt-water influence entering the marine environment was greater during the Late Miocene than today around Antarctica, and documents the paleoenvironment associated with a discrete period of ice margin retreat and marine incursion into the Lambert embayment.     

21st century climate change in the Middle East

This study examined the performance and future predictions for the Middle East produced by 18 global climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 emissions scenario the models predict an overall temperature increase of ~1.4 K by mid-century, increasing to almost 4 K by late-century for the Middle East. In terms of precipitation the southernmost portion of the domain experiences a small increase in precipitation due to the Northward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The largest change however is a decrease in precipitation that occurs in an area covering the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, Syria, Northern Iraq, Northeastern Iran and the Caucasus caused by a decrease in storm track activity over the Eastern Mediterranean. Other changes likely to impact the region include a decrease of over 170,000 km² in viable rainfed agriculture land by late-century, increases in the length of the dry season that reduces the length of time that the rangelands can be grazed, and changes in the timing of the maximum precipitation in Northern Iran that will impact the growing season, forcing changes in cropping strategy or even crop types.     

The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) has developed the fourth generation of the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). The new model includes substantially modified physical parameterizations compared to its predecessor. In particular, the treatment of clouds, cloud radiative effects, and precipitation has been modified. Aerosol direct and indirect effects are calculated based on a bulk aerosol scheme. Simulation results for present-day global climate are analyzed, with a focus on cloud radiative effects and precipitation. Good overall agreement is found between climatological mean short- and longwave cloud radiative effects and observations from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) experiment. An analysis of the responses of cloud radiative effects to variations in climate will be presented in a companion paper.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Le Centre canadien de la modélisation et de l'analyse climatique (CCmaC) a mis au point la quatrième génération du modèle canadien de circulation générale de l'atmosphère (CanAM4). Le nouveau modèle comprend des paramétrisations physiques passablement modifiées comparativement à son prédécesseur. En particulier, le traitement des nuages, des effets radiatifs des nuages et des précipitations a été modifié. Les effets directs et indirects des aérosols sont calculés à l'aide d'un schéma d'aérosols en bloc. Nous analysons des résultats de simulation pour le climat général du jour présent en mettant l'accent sur les effets radiatifs des nuages et les précipitations. Nous trouvons un bon accord général entre la moyenne climatologique des effets radiatifs des nuages pour les courtes et les grandes longueurs d'onde et les observations de l'expérience CERES (Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System). Une analyse de la réponse des effets radiatifs des nuages aux variations du climat sera présentée dans un article connexe.     

Middle to late Holocene initiation of the annual flood pulse in Tonle Sap Lake,Cambodia

Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia, possesses one of the most productive inland fisheries in the world and is a vital natural resource for the country. The lake is connected to the Mekong River via the Tonle Sap River. Flow in the Tonle Sap River reverses seasonally, with water exiting the lake in the dry season and entering the lake during the summer monsoon. This flood pulse drives the lake’s biological productivity. We used Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopes and elemental concentrations in lake sediment cores to track changes in the provenance of deposits in Tonle Sap Lake. We sought to determine when the lake first began to receive water and sediment input via the Mekong River, which initiated flood pulse processes. The transition from a non-pulsing lake to the Mekong-connected system is marked by shifts to values of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ε_Nd, and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb that are characteristic of Mekong River sediments. In addition, magnetic susceptibility increased and sediment elemental composition changed. Elemental (P) measures point to enhanced phosphorus loading and C/N and isotope ratios of bulk organic matter indicate a shift to greater relative contribution of organic material from aquatic versus terrestrial environments, coinciding with the initiation of flood pulse processes. On the basis of radiocarbon dating in two cores, we estimate the initiation of the annual flood pulse occurred between ~4,450 and 3,910 cal year BP.     

Effects of interface material on the performance of free rocking blocks

This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on the rocking behavior of rigid blocks. Two types of test specimens have been tested, namely M and C types. Nine blocks of the M type and two blocks of the C type with different aspect ratios were tested with varying initial rotational amplitudes and with different materials at the contact interface, namely concrete, timber, steel, and rubber. The results showed that the interface material has significant influence on the free rocking performance of the blocks. Blocks tested on rubber had the fastest energy dissipation followed by concrete and timber bases, respectively. Analysis of the test results has shown that the energy dissipation in the case of tests on a rubber base is a continuous mechanism whereas in the case of tests on rigid bases, i.e. timber and concrete, energy dissipation is a discrete function. Finally, the rocking characteristics of the blocks were calculated using piecewise equations of motion and numerical analysis. It was possible to predict the correct free rocking amplitude response when a reliable value for the coefficient of restitution was used. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trophic cascades and future harmful algal blooms within ice-free Arctic Seas north of Bering Strait: A simulation analysis

Within larger ice-free regions of the western Arctic Seas, subject to ongoing trophic cascades induced by past overfishing, as well as to possible future eutrophication of the drainage basins of the Yukon and Mackenzie Rivers, prior very toxic harmful algal blooms (HABs) – first associated with ∼100 human deaths near Sitka, Alaska in 1799 – may soon expand. Blooms of calcareous coccolithophores in the Bering Sea during 1997–1998 were non-toxic harbingers of the subsequent increments of other non-siliceous phytoplankton. But, now saxitoxic dinoflagellates, e.g. Alexandrium tamarense, were instead found by us within the adjacent downstream Chukchi Sea during SBI cruises of 2002 and 2003. A previous complex, coupled biophysical model had been validated earlier by ship-board observations from the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas during the summer of 2002. With inclusion of phosphorus as another chemical state variable to modulate additional competition by recently observed nitrogen-fixers, we now explore here the possible consequences of altered composition of dominant phytoplankton functional groups [diatoms, microflagellates, prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis colonies, coccolithophores, diazotrophs, and dinoflagellates] in relation to increases of the toxic A. tamarense, responding to relaxation of grazing pressure by herbivores north of Bering Strait as part of a continuing trophic cascade. Model formulation was guided by validation observations obtained during 2002–2004 from: cruises of the SBI, CHINARE, and CASES programs; moored arrays in Bering Strait; other RUSALCA cruises around Wrangel Island; and SBI helicopter surveys of the shelf-break regions of the Arctic basin. Our year-long model scenarios during 2002–2003 indicate that post bloom silica-limitation of diatoms, after smaller simulated spring grazing losses, led to subsequent competitive advantages in summer for the coccolithophores, dinoflagellates, and diazotrophs. Immediate top-down control is exerted by imposed grazing pressures of the model’s herbivores and bottom-up control is also effected by light-, nitrate-, ammonium-, silicate-, and phosphate-modulated competition among the six functional groups of the simulated phytoplankton community. Similar to the history of the southern North Sea adjacent to the Rhine River, possible farming of northwestern Alaska and Canada, in conjunction with other human activities of ice retreat and overfishing, may lead to future exacerbations of poisonous phytoplankton. These potential killers include both toxic dinoflagellate and diazotroph HABs, deadly to terrestrial and marine mammals, as well as those of prymnesiophytes, some of which have already foamed beaches, while others have killed fishes of European waters.     

Habitat overlap between southern bluefin tuna and yellowfin tuna in the east coast longline fishery - implications for present and future spatial management

Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) are presently a quota-managed species in the multi-species eastern Australian tuna and billfish longline fishery (ETBF). Capture of SBT is regulated by quota, as is access to regions likely to contain SBT. A habitat prediction model combining data from an ocean model and pop-up satellite archival tags is used to define habitat zones based on the probability of SBT occurrence. These habitat zones are used by fishery managers to restrict access by ETBF fishers to SBT habitat during a May-November management season. The zones display a distinct seasonal cycle driven by the seasonal southward expansion and northward contraction of the East Australia Current (EAC) and as a result access by fishers to particular ocean regions changes seasonally. This species also overlaps with the commercially valuable yellowfin tuna (YFT), thus, we modified the SBT model to generate YFT habitat predictions in order to investigate habitat overlap between SBT and YFT. There is seasonal variation in the overlap of the core habitat between these two species, with overlap early (May-Jul) in the management season and habitat separation occurring towards the end (Aug-Nov). The EAC is one of the fastest warming ocean regions in the southern hemisphere. To consider the future change in distribution of these two species compared to the present and to explore the potential impact on fishers and managers of the future, we use future ocean predictions from the CSIRO Bluelink ocean model for the year 2064 to generate habitat predictions. As the ocean warms on the east coast of Australia and the EAC extends southward, our model predicts the suitable habitat for SBT and YFT will move further south. There was an increase in the overlap of SBT and YFT habitat throughout the management season, due to regional variation of each species’ habitat. These results illustrate that a management tradeoff exists between restricting fisher access to SBT habitat and allowing access to YFT habitat. We suggest that some options to address this tradeoff are possible by identifying the seasonal variability of the overlap.